clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Comedy And Tragedy: An Update On The Thrashers' Tragic Number

Again, let me reiterate that I in no way, shape, form, or fashion expect a miracle to happen and for this team to make the playoffs. They're obviously God's plaything, as are all of us.

But, until we're eliminated, it's still handy to keep track of what's going on. As of right now, SportsClubStats.com has us at a .2% chance of getting in. That's way better than I expected, and then I remember that they don't list negative numbers. Last night's Carolina win over the Habs puts the Thrashers now six points behind the Hurricanes, and nine points behind Buffalo. If they won out the last ten games of the season, the Thrashers'd get 92 points - it isn't a sure fire thing, but chances are good they'd be in the playoffs. A .700 winning percentage - winning seven of those last ten games, or getting 14 out of 20 points - gives them the exact same chance to get in as they have right now. Basically, they can blow as much smoke as they want about "regrouping" and "continuing to battle," but unless they have compromising photos of the coaches of the teams in front of them, there's no way.

A bit more cheerful is the magic number countdown (see previous post for an explanation):

Magicnumber323_medium

As you can see, the Sabres win on Tuesday knocked the Thrashers' (and everyone else outside of the playoffs) magic number down a few pegs. Five more Sabres wins, and we're basically out. But hey, if anyone has a Lindy Rupp voodoo doll, now's the time to give it a go.

The Devils, who were at 14 the last time I posted this, are now at ten thanks to both Buffalo's win and their loss. And pour one out for the Sens, who are the first Eastern Conference team to officially be eliminated.

We have probably a week and a half more of people saying "we can still make it!" I'm sure they're not math majors, but technically, they're right.