Early Look at Thrashers Cap Numbers for 2010-11

In the Fanpost below, the commenter BTN asked whether the Thrashers would be close to the cap floor next season if they use three NHL rookies (Cormier, Klingberg, Machacek). The answer is no. It is very unlikely they would be at the cap floor if they re-sign Kubina and Afinogenov and re-sign all their RFA players (Pavelec, Little, Bergfors, MacArthur). Below I've made my own projections for what each of these players would sign for. I have the RFAs signing for around $2 million each (Pavelec more, MacArthur less) and Kubina and Anfinogenov back for a combined $8 million. I also inserted a bench forward and defenseman making near the NHL minimum. I left $2.5 for a 2nd goalie (whether that is Hedberg or someone else.

I also have two columns, one for the cap hit and another for the actual salary paid. One confusing aspect is that all rookie bonuses will count against the cap because it could be the final year of the CBA. Bonus clauses count as a cap hits until they cannot be won. So Evander Kane has a cap hit of $3.1 million but an base salary of .9 million.

My projected roster and dollars spent come out to a cap hit of $51 million which is well above the likely floor of around $41.5 million. If you look at actual salaries paid the team is lower with a number close to $47 million. My projections may be off a little bit here or there, but I think it is a reasonable estimate of what the opening roster would cost.