Yesterday, I posted the Winning % (excluding SOW and OTL points) in games between playoff teams. Today I have more detailed stats for games involving playoff opponents. There are two tables below. The first table looks at summary metrics such as Goals (For, Against, Differential) and Shots (For, Against, Differential). The second table looks at team percentages (Power Play %, Penalty Kill %, Save %, Shot %) when facing other playoff teams. (West data here)
Observations:
- The Capitals outscored both playoff and non-playoff teams by a healthy margin, but their shot advantage was greatly reduced against non-playoff clubs.
- The Sabres offense torched non-playoff teams to the tune of 3.41 GFA but fell by a full goal to just 2.42 against playoff clubs--but their GAA showed no change.
- The Penguins numbers are also quite stark but in their case both their offense and defense regressed badly against playoff teams.
- The bottom seeded teams in the East were all outscored by playoff opponents except for Ottawa. The Senators managed a higher GFA against better clubs, but in their case that is a product of a higher team Shot %--their shot differential was significantly worse, they just converted their shots at a higher rate.
| Team | Opponent | GP | GFA | GAA | G Diff | SF | SA | S Diff | |
| WSH | Vs Playoff | 38 | 3.68 | 2.82 | 0.86 | 31.1 | 30.9 | 0.20 | |
| WSH | vs Non | 44 | 4.05 | 2.86 | 1.19 | 34.3 | 30.9 | 3.40 | |
| NJD | Vs Playoff | 42 | 2.50 | 2.29 | 0.21 | 28.9 | 27.8 | 1.10 | |
| NJD | vs Non | 40 | 2.93 | 2.40 | 0.53 | 31.1 | 26.2 | 4.90 | |
| BUF | Vs Playoff | 45 | 2.42 |
2.53 | -0.11 | 31.1 | 31.1 | 0.00 | |
| BUF | vs Non | 37 | 3.41 | 2.51 | 0.90 | 32.1 | 31.7 | 0.40 | |
| PIT | Vs Playoff | 42 | 2.79 | 3.20 | -0.41 | 31.4 | 28.9 | 2.50 | |
| PIT | vs Non | 40 | 3.50 | 2.53 | 0.97 | 34.3 | 28.5 | 5.80 | |
| OTT | Vs Playoff | 43 | 2.91 | 2.95 | -0.04 | 28.6 | 29.0 | -0.40 | |
| OTT | vs Non | 39 | 2.56 | 2.85 | -0.29 | 31.0 | 28.1 | 2.90 | |
| BOS | Vs Playoff | 44 | 2.18 | 2.64 | -0.46 | 30.9 | 30.8 | 0.10 | |
| BOS | vs Non | 38 | 2.89 | 2.21 | 0.68 | 32.6 | 28.7 | 3.90 | |
| PHI | Vs Playoff | 43 | 2.91 | 2.95 | -0.04 | 28.6 | 29.0 | -0.40 | |
| PHI | vs Non | 39 | 2.56 | 2.85 | -0.29 | 31.0 | 28.1 | 2.90 | |
| MTL | Vs Playoff | 43 | 2.28 | 2.74 | -0.46 | 26.2 | 32.4 | -6.20 | |
| MTL | vs Non | 39 | 3.05 | 2.69 | 0.36 | 31.2 | 31.8 | -0.60 | |
| NYR | Vs Playoff | 48 | 2.31 | 2.92 | -0.61 | 28.3 | 31.7 | -3.40 | |
| NYR | vs Non | 34 | 3.26 | 2.29 | 0.97 | 31.4 | 27.3 | 4.10 | |
| ATL | Vs Playoff | 42 | 2.83 | 3.26 | -0.43 | 29.0 | 33.8 | -4.80 | |
| ATL | vs Non | 39 | 2.92 | 3.00 | -0.08 | 30.0 | 32.4 | -2.40 | |
| CAR | Vs Playoff | 43 | 2.63 | 3.33 | -0.70 | 29.4 | 32.3 | -2.90 | |
| CAR | vs Non | 39 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 0.10 | 29.2 | 30.4 | -1.20 | |
| TBL | Vs Playoff | 44 | 2.32 | 3.27 | -0.95 | 27.5 | 32.2 | -4.70 | |
| TBL | vs Non | 38 | 3.03 | 3.05 | -0.02 | 30.5 | 30.5 | 0.00 | |
| NYI | Vs Playoff | 47 | 2.72 | 3.26 | -0.54 | 30.3 | 32.3 | -2.00 | |
| NYI | vs Non | 35 | 2.69 | 3.17 | -0.48 | 30.5 | 31.5 | -1.00 | |
| FLA | Vs Playoff | 45 | 2.42 | 3.24 | -0.82 | 28.0 | 35.5 | -7.50 | |
| FLA | vs Non | 37 | 2.68 | 2.65 | 0.03 | 28.9 | 32.5 | -3.60 | |
| TOR | Vs Playoff | 49 | 2.61 | 3.10 | -0.49 | 31.6 | 29.8 | 1.80 | |
| TOR | vs Non | 33 | 2.61 | 3.48 | -0.87 | 34.0 | 29.7 | 4.30 |
Observations for Table 2:
In general most teams don't show much difference in their team Shot % or team Save % when you split the data out. However, we are more likely to see gaps in PP% and PK%.
- The Devils had some big splits, their PP was lousy against better teams, but their PK was outstanding.
- Buffalo and Pittsburgh both had anemic PP performance against other playoff teams.
- The Penguins had subpar goaltending against playoff clubs, while OTT had below average SV% against both playoff and non-playoff teams. Could be a high scoring 1st round series between those two teams.
- If the Caps have one weakness, their PK unit was below average against playoff teams.
What is this PDO stat? It is a measure of luck. League wide SV% and ST% must add up to 100%. A few star level players show the ability to sustain higher than average SV and ST rates, over the long run, but at the team level only dynasty level teams can maintain a higher than average PDO over the long run of multiple seasons.
Ergo, if a team has a number over 100% suggests that a team has been fortunate, anything under 100% suggests they have been unlucky. When facing other playoff teams Washington and Buffalo had some good luck, while Pittsburgh and Boston did not (Ottawa was rather unlucky versus non-playoff teams).
| Team | Opponent | W% | PP% | PK% | SV% | ST% | PDO | ||
| WSH | Vs Playoff | 59.2% | 24.6% | 78.1% | 90.9% | 11.8% | 1.03 | ||
| WSH | vs Non | 72.7% | 25.7% | 79.4% | 90.7% | 11.8% | 1.03 | ||
| NJD | Vs Playoff | 57.1% | 15.7% | 87.5% | 91.7% | 8.6% | 1.00 | ||
| NJD | vs Non | 58.8% | 21.8% | 78.7% | 90.8% | 9.4% | 1.00 | ||
| BUF | Vs Playoff | 66.2% | 20.6% | 85.5% | 92.1% | 10.6% | 1.03 | ||
| BUF | vs Non | 47.8% | 15.1% | 87.8% | 91.9% | 7.8% | 1.00 | ||
| PIT | Vs Playoff | 44.0% | 13.3% | 81.7% | 88.9% | 8.9% | 0.98 | ||
| PIT | vs Non | 63.8% | 20.8% | 86.8% | 91.1% | 10.2% | 1.01 | ||
| OTT | Vs Playoff | 54.7% | 14.5% | 81.2% | 89.8% | 10.2% | 1.00 | ||
| OTT | vs Non | 52.6% | 19.6% | 87.8% | 89.9% | 8.3% | 0.98 | ||
| BOS | Vs Playoff | 39.8% | 14.3% | 84.6% | 91.4% | 7.1% | 0.99 | ||
| BOS | vs Non | 55.3% | 19.0% | 87.8% | 92.3% | 8.9% | 1.01 | ||
| PHI | Vs Playoff | 54.7% | 14.5% | 81.2% | 89.8% | 10.2% | 1.00 | ||
| PHI | vs Non | 52.6% | 19.6% | 87.8% | 89.9% | 8.3% | 0.98 | ||
| MTL | Vs Playoff | 40.7% | 19.5% | 84.2% | 91.5% | 8.7% | 1.00 | ||
| MTL | vs Non | 52.6% | 24.2% | 81.3% | 91.5% | 9.8% | 1.01 | ||
| NYR | Vs Playoff | 39.6% | 16.2% | 82.7% | 90.8% | 8.2% | 0.99 | ||
| NYR | vs Non | 57.4% | 21.1% | 86.8% | 91.6% | 10.4% | 1.02 | ||
| ATL | Vs Playoff | 38.1% | 16.4% | 81.5% | 90.4% | 9.8% | 1.00 | ||
| ATL | vs Non | 48.7% | 16.7% | 82.3% | 90.6% | 9.7% | 1.00 | ||
| CAR | Vs Playoff | 43.0% | 14.6% | 76.2% | 89.7% | 8.9% | 0.99 | ||
| CAR | vs Non | 43.6% | 19.3% | 85.4% | 90.5% | 10.3% | 1.01 | ||
| TBL | Vs Playoff | 36.4% | 17.0% | 79.0% | 89.8% | 8.4% | 0.98 | ||
| TBL | vs Non | 51.3% | 22.2% | 81.3% | 90.0% | 9.9% | 1.00 | ||
| NYI | Vs Playoff | 36.2% | 17.8% | 72.5% | 89.9% | 9.0% | 0.99 | ||
| NYI | vs Non | 45.7% | 13.5% | 81.4% | 89.9% | 8.8% | 0.99 | ||
| FLA | Vs Playoff | 35.6% | 14.0% | 77.3% | 90.9% | 8.7% | 1.00 | ||
| FLA | vs Non | 48.6% | 14.6% | 82.3% | 91.9% | 9.2% | 1.01 | ||
| TOR | Vs Playoff | 35.7% | 12.9% | 75.6% | 89.6% | 8.3% | 0.98 | ||
| TOR | vs Non | 37.9% | 15.3% | 73.5% | 88.3% | 7.7% | 0.96 |
Next up: Western Conference