The post season is about to kick off. This means several things:
- No overtime loss points
- No shootout win points
- No weak opponents on the schedule
What happens if we delete the SOW and OTL points?
What happens if we only count games where one playoff qualifier faced another playoff qualifier?
To answer these questions I calculated each team's win percentage against both playoff and non-playoff teams in the table below--and I excluded all the OTL and SOW points. The results will surprise some people. Which teams racked up their points against weak teams? Which teams did well when facing other playoff caliber teams?
In the East the Penguins and Sabres both torched the non-playoff teams but had losing records when facing other playoff teams. The Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers both played slightly better when matched up against playoff caliber teams. If these patterns were to hold Ottawa would upset Pittsburgh in the 1st round.
| Team | W% vs Playoff Teams | W% vs Out Teams | Difference |
| WSH | 59.2% | 72.7% | 13.5% |
| NJD | 57.1% | 58.8% | 1.7% |
| OTT | 54.7% | 52.6% | -2.1% |
| PHI | 54.7% | 52.6% | -2.1% |
| BUF | 47.5% | 66.2% | 18.7% |
| PIT | 44.0% | 63.8% | 19.8% |
| CAR | 43.0% | 43.6% | 0.6% |
| MTL | 40.7% | 52.6% | 11.9% |
| BOS | 39.8% | 55.3% | 15.5% |
| NYR | 39.5% | 57.4% | 17.9% |
| ATL | 38.1% | 48.7% | 10.6% |
| TBL | 36.4% | 51.3% | 14.9% |
| NYI | 36.2% | 45.7% | 9.5% |
| TOR | 35.7% | 37.9% | 2.2% |
| FLA | 35.6% | 48.6% | 13.0% |
Out in the West, the Sharks, Avalanche and Predators all savaged the non-playoff teams and had a Win% nearly 20 points lower when facing off against quality opponents. The Red Wings had the reverse pattern posting a much better Win % against playoff teams than non-playoff teams. Vancouver had essentially the same Win % whether both types of opponents. Phoenix had a pretty average split but has the bad fortune to draw Detroit in the 1st round.
| Team | W% vs Playoff Teams | W% vs Out Teams | Difference |
| DET | 60.5% | 50.0% | -10.5% |
| VAN | 58.8% | 60.7% | 1.9% |
| CHI | 58.3% | 65.0% | 6.7% |
| SJS | 53.5% | 70.5% | 17.0% |
| PHX | 51.2% | 61.0% | 9.8% |
| LAK | 50.0% | 59.8% | 9.8% |
| CGY | 47.8% | 66.2% | 18.4% |
| ANA | 46.9% | 52.9% | 6.0% |
| NSH | 45.1% | 64.6% | 19.5% |
| DAL | 41.7% | 54.4% | 12.7% |
| COL | 40.8% | 60.2% | 19.4% |
| MIN | 40.2% | 56.9% | 16.7% |
| STL | 38.0% | 59.8% | 21.8% |
| EDM | 34.8% | 27.8% | -7.0% |
| CBJ | 31.9% | 60.0% | 28.1% |
Conclusion
If you enjoyed these numbers check back later. I'll have a post showing the Goal Differential, Shot Differential, PP% and PK% when playoff teams faced off against other playoff teams.
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