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Thrashers Playoffs Chances--A Tease or Contention?

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Like the computerized killing machine in "The Terminator" the Thrashers playoff chances have risen from the ashes to once again show some vital signs. Is this just a tease for the audience before they are finally extinguished? Or is this a case of genuine revival?

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via 2.bp.blogspot.com

The Club Sports odds are back up to 18% which is about a 1 in 6 chance of making the post-season. The Flyers are in the midst of some goalie trouble but they are well ahead of the Bruins who currently occupy the 8th spot.

The Thrashers and Bruins have played the same number of games, so the Thrashers would need two more wins and two regulation losses just to catch the Bruins--and THEN the Thrashers would need to match every win by the Bruins. So below I have created a table that shows what the Thrashers would need to do in order to catch and pass Boston.

If Boston were to simply play .500 hockey the rest of the way the Thrashers would need a record of 8-4 to beat them. If the Bruins were to manage 7-5 down the stretch the Thrashers need to go 9-3. If the Bruins were to really fall apart and just win just 5 of their final 12, then the Thrashers get in with a 7-5 record (assuming the NYR don't play any better).

 

If Boston went… Thrashers need to go….
W L OTL PTS W L OTL PTS
12 0 0 24 impossible to qualify
11 0 1 23 impossible to qualify
11 1 0 22 impossible to qualify
10 1 1 21 tie breaker
10 2 0 20 12 0 0 24
9 2 1 19 11 0 1 23
9 3 0 18 11 1 0 22
8 3 1 17 10 1 1 21
8 4 0 16 10 2 0 20
7 4 1 15 9 2 1 19
7 5 0 14 9 3 0 18
6 5 1 13 8 3 1 17
6 6 0 12 8 4 0 16
5 6 1 11 7 4 1 15
5 7 0 10 7 5 0 14
4 7 1 9 6 5 1 13
4 8 0 8 6 6 0 12
3 8 1 7 5 6 1 11
3 9 0 6 5 7 0 10
2 9 1 5 4 7 1 9
2 10 0 4 4 8 0 8
1 10 1 3 3 8 1 7
1 11 0 2 3 9 0 6
0 11 1 1 2 9 1 5
0 12 0 0 2 10 0 4

 

I think the odds of the Thrashers limiting their losses to just 3 the rest of the way are rather remote given their schedule. Atlanta can only qualify if the Bruins meltdown and the Rangers stay tepid. That's not a very likely scenario, but if you're looking to hang your hat on something--there you go.

So right now the odds of the Thrashers finishing 8th or better are 18%, the odds of finishing 9th or 10 are 45% and the odds of finishing 11th or worse are 38%.