Last night the Thrashers were mathematically eliminated from the playoff race. In reality they were knocked out in mid December when their playoff odds fell under 10%. They dug such a deep hole they would have needed to transform into the Wings or Sharks overnight to climb out of that hole. They did transform later in January but became more like the Sabres or Oilers which are playoff bubble teams.
With less than 10 games left in this regular season, time to bring out the big board to see where this season stacks up to previous Thrashers seasons (I missing some data for the inaugural 1999-2000 season).
The Big Picture
Out of the playoffs, low in the standings, low in player payroll, low in attendance. Obviously all three are somewhat related to one anther can the Thrashers escape this vicious trap?
| Season | Standings Rank | Salary | Attendance |
| 1999-2000 | 28 | 27 | ?? |
| 2000-2001 | 28 | 28 | 23 |
| 2001-2002 | 30 | 28 | 28 |
| 2002-2003 | 23 | 28 | 28 |
| 2003-2004 | 21 | 26 | 22 |
| 2005-2006 | 20 | 2 | 23 |
| 2006-2007 | 12 | 17 | 21 |
| 2007-2008 | 27 | 23 | 22 |
| 2008-2009 | 27 | 22 | 28 |
Scoring
The offense was remarkably good for a low salary team. Coach Anderson deliver on producing offense. The defense is on track to finish dead last in goals allowed for 5th time in 10 seasons. The team cannot score it's way to contention it must reduce the goals against to make any additional progress.
| Season | Goals For Average |
Goals Against Average | Net Goal Differential |
| 1999-2000 | |||
| 2000-2001 | 27 | 29 | 28 |
| 2001-2002 | 26 | 30 | 30 |
| 2002-2003 | 10 | 30 | 27 |
| 2003-2004 | 13 | 25 | 22 |
| 2005-2006 | 6 | 24 | 16 |
| 2006-2007 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| 2007-2008 | 22 | 30 | 30 |
| 2008-2009 | 11 | 30 | 25 |
Team Efficiency
The goal tending was simply not good enough in the 1st half of the season. A remarkable 2nd half by Lehtonen pulled the team out of dead last in SV%. Hedberg is a great person, but he's holding the team back with performance in net. The Thrashers were extremely efficient in coverting shots, they will likely struggle to repeat that next year.
| Season | Save Percentage |
Shot Percentage |
|
| 1999-2000 | |||
| 2000-2001 | 24 |
23 |
|
| 2001-2002 | 27 |
17 |
|
| 2002-2003 | 30 |
7 |
|
| 2003-2004 | 27 |
5 |
|
| 2005-2006 | 24 |
6 |
|
| 2006-2007 | 13 |
12 |
|
| 2007-2008 | 19 |
11 |
|
| 2008-2009 | 26 |
4 |
Shots
The Thrashers have always struggled to prevent shots against, nothing has changed there. The team scored a lot of goals while not taking a ton of shots. Was that "luck" or something caused by Coach Anderson's system (i.e. does his system produce low shot totals but higher percentage shots)?
| Season | Shots For Average |
Shots Against Average | Net Shot Differential |
| 1999-2000 | |||
| 2000-2001 | 12 |
30 |
26 |
| 2001-2002 | 29 |
30 | 30 |
| 2002-2003 | 25 |
27 |
26 |
| 2003-2004 | 27 |
23 |
24 |
| 2005-2006 | 5 |
14 |
13 |
| 2006-2007 | 11 |
25 |
19 |
| 2007-2008 | 30 |
30 |
30 |
| 2008-2009 | 26 |
28 |
29 |
Power Play
The Power Play was well above average and the team was better than average at drawing PP Opportunities. Credit the players and the coach for this one.
| Season | Power Play % |
Power Play Goals |
Power Play Opportunities |
| 1999-2000 | |||
| 2000-2001 | 25 |
24 |
7 |
| 2001-2002 | 29 |
30 |
24 |
| 2002-2003 | 13 |
10 |
13 |
| 2003-2004 | 23 |
10 |
2 |
| 2005-2006 | 4 |
1 |
1 |
| 2006-2007 | 23 |
19 |
10 |
| 2007-2008 | 23 |
26 |
28 |
| 2008-2009 | 10 |
8 |
11 |
Penalty Kill
The Penalty was simply awful last year and it was simply awful this year. The Thrashers were acutally very disciplined in terms of taking few penalty--but the PK unit was so terrible that they STILL will finish last in Power Play Goals Against--that's simply horrible.
| Season | Penalty Kill % |
Penalty Kill Goal Against |
Times Short Handed (higher ranking is better) |
| 1999-2000 | |||
| 2000-2001 | 30 |
30 |
26 |
| 2001-2002 | 25 |
27 |
21 |
| 2002-2003 | 24 |
21 |
17 |
| 2003-2004 | 8 |
19 |
28 |
| 2005-2006 | 27 |
29 |
28 |
| 2006-2007 | 26 |
21 |
10 |
| 2007-2008 | 27 |
28 |
15 |
| 2008-2009 | 30 |
30 |
8 |
Conclusion: "Better luck next year"?
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