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Draft Lottery: Three True Outcomes

The NHL Draft Lottery will be held Monday night at 8pm. You can watch it on the NHL Channel if you get it. From a Thrashers perspective there are three outcomes that affect our team.

  1. The Thrashers pick #1 because they win the lottery--14% chance.
  2. The Thrashers keep their #3 position because either the Lightning or the Kings win or one of the teams way down the list wins--remember that teams that win can only move up 4 spots so if Buffalo wins it does affect the Thrashers one bit--61% chance.
  3. The Thrashers pick is falls to #4 because one the three teams just below us in the order (Blues, Islanders or Columbus) wins the pick and leapfrogs over Atlanta--25% chance.
So the largest odds (61%) are that the Thrashers stay at the number three spot with a 25% of falling one slot and even smaller chance of rising two spots (14%).

Personally I'd be thrilled to see Atlanta win, but mostly I hope not to slid. The top three players look to be very promising with star potential.