I probably should have posted something here a long time ago, but I never thought I would spend so much time away from this blog. I know that many readers regularly come to this site for Thrashers news and analysis and I'm proud that you have come to rely on BWA for that information. So I do feel guilty about not posting for the last month, and I feel that I owe a bit of an explanation.

The day I returned home from the NHL Draft, I agreed to split up with my spouse of 12 years. It is an amicable separation, but it was unexpected at that time. I am embracing this change and looking forward to the third act of my life with great anticipation. But one consequence of this change is that my personal and professional absorbed every minute of my time over the last four weeks. Thankfully,  the other folks here at BWA were able to provide you with content in my absence.

My new life is beginning to take shape and I expect to have some time for writing again. I have a pile of interviews from Prospect Camp to transcribe and post and I'll write up my impressions of Camp (although I spent less time watching than in some previous years). So come back here in August for interviews that I conducted in early July. I'm really looking forward to watching the Thrashers this fall. It will be exciting to see what this lineup will look like on the ice. I hope that you'll keep checking back here as we get ready for another year of NHL hockey in Atlanta.

Harry How - Getty Images

Alexander Burmistrov tops just about everybody's list of Thrashers prospects. After that, it gets much harder.

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Here at BWA, we've started doing our prospect rankings as an average. The final ranking is based on the thoughts of myself, The Falconer, and hildymac. I've updated my rankings after camp, but both Falconer and hildy are a bit busy right now. To satiate you guys, here are my rankings (below the fold...) I've included a few basic notes to explain why a player has moved up or down on my list, but I'll gladly answer questions in the comments. Okay, here goes... ::ducks::

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Can we all agree to stop predicting how many goals the Thrashers will score this year? Even our very own Mr. The Falconer did it awhile back, and while he at least attempted to adjust the numbers (by using ice time rates and redistributing time). I'll give him credit for also admitting that his projection would be wrong, but if we know something will be wrong, why spend the time writing a blog?

I know this comes from a good place. After the loss of superstar winger Ilya Kovalchuk, the Thrashers' goal production dropped somewhat dramatically, from 2.95G/game with Kovalchuk to 2.52G/game without him. That's a substantial drop. Now, the goals against also dropped (from 3.13GA/game to 2.89GA/game), so that helped soften the blow, but the team still took a substantial hit.

Elite players make your team better. Duh.

Here's the problem: we were running what was supposed to be a high-powered offense without our highest-powered offensive player. The other guys we expected to be impact offensive players weren't helping much: Slava Kozlov was scratched most nights and Maxim Afinogenov scored just 6 goals in the 27 post-Kovalchuk games to end the season. (That's an 82-game pace of 18 goals.) For comparison, during this stretch Bryan Little had 5, Nik Antropov had 11, and Niclas Bergfors had 8. 

The big problem I have with all these posts - and the one I linked above is certainly not the only one - is that they consist of nothing but pointless conjecture. You do not predict goals like this:

1. Take last year's numbers
2. Increase the numbers for a couple players you like
3. Write a blog about it

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Over the years I've learned not to put too much emphasis on first impressions. Having said that, here are my first impressions.

Burmistrov--not as small as advertised, obvious puck skills, seems very comfortable out there with puck and teammates.

Cormier--more puck skill than I was expecting.

Albert--hardest working forward on the ice this morning.

Postma--looks way ahead of every other D, not surprising given that he's most advanced pro at camp.

Telegin--nice size, he could be a beast when he puts more weight on that frame.

Bubnick--such great hands, if only the skating was better. I'd love to see what he can do screening the goalie on a PP unit.

At the risk of sounding like I've been drinking Rick Dudley's Kool-Aid, I think the Atlanta Thrashers are on the verge of becoming a competitive hockey franchise that will make regular playoff appearances over a multi-year span. Long time readers know that I am not given over to wild bursts of optimism after a decade of watching bad hockey. So let me list the reasons for my belief that improvement is at hand.

The Thrashers have finally built a big collection of young talent. One of the big problems with the Thrashers organization in the past was that they only had two or three talented young players under 25. The NHL roster was mostly filled with guys already in the prime or exiting their prime. In 2007 the average age on the Thrashers was 29.5 (among the oldest in the NHL) in 2010 the projected lineup averages just 25.4 (among the youngest in the NHL). It has been very painful to see Heatley, Hossa, Lehtonen and Kovalchuk traded--but the net result of those moves has been to restock both the NHL roster and the Thrashers pool of prospects. Atlanta fans have suffered through many losing seasons, but the talent pipeline has never looked as good as it does now.

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Harry How - Getty Images

2 months ago: LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 25: Alexander Burmistrov, drafted eighth overall by the Atlanta Thrashers, poses on stage during the 2010 NHL Entry Draft at Staples Center on June 25, 2010 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

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Now that I've had a night to sleep on it, here are some observations about the Thrashers selection of Alexander Burmistrov

The pick really addresses an organizational need at center. At the NHL level, Atlanta has Antropov and Peverley under contract for the next few years. The center position has been a real weakness for the franchise historically. Because the center plays the whole length of the ice, having strength at the C position is crucial to long term success. Teams like Pittsburgh and Detroit have built their roster around having two great centers who compete hard at both ends of the ice. Alex Burmistrov has the potential to become the best center to ever put on a Thrashers uniform (and yes, he could be better than Marc Savard).

We also learned a few things about the new GM Rick Dudley. He tends to favor big players (see the trade with Chicago and past draft picks). Some fans in Tampa and Florida accused him of having a size fetish when it comes to acquiring players. The fact that he took a player who is as small as Alex Burmistrov puts the lie to those accusations. Dudley clearly values hockey IQ, determination/competitiveness and speed over size or he wouldn't have made the selection.

The pick also shows that the Atlanta Thrashers will not avoid players from any region of the globe. The last two years the number of Americans and Swedish players have grown and the number of Russians declined. Especially after the departure of Ilya Kovalchuk, the organization might have been a bit gun shy about taking another Russian high in the draft. Clearly, this pick wasn't driven by fear.

In terms of organizational strategy, I strongly endorse taking a scoring forward with the 1st round pick. Scoring players are simply the most difficult to acquire for a reasonable price. More than any other position, scoring forwards come out of the 1st or 2nd rounds of the draft. Scorers are always expensive as UFA (unless they have flaws--see Afinogenov),therefore I think any team picking high should leverage that position into gaining an offensive player who can provide cheap offense and the right to re-sign and retain their rights.

Another observation is that Alexander Burmistrov is not Ilya Kovalchuk. There is an old saying that "generals fight the last war" which means that the human brain is hard wired to expect past scenarios/patterns to repeat themselves. Some fans might be worried thinking "great we just drafted another Russian glamor forward who will play bad defense and leave us in a few years." But Burmistrov plays a different style--he's a passer more than a shooter and he's a good defender. In my brief moments with Alex he also seemed much more extroverted than Kovalchuk. Burmistrov's decision to leave his native country to come and play hockey at age 17 in North American and his ability to learn English quickly speaks highly of his drive, intelligence and competitiveness

I was surprised that the Thrashers didn't trade down because Dudley had expressed a desire to gain more picks and I'm sure some teams were eager to draft players left on the board. But it was clear that Atlanta was very much intrigued by Burmistrov as they had him ranked very high and had spoken to him repeatedly during the season.

About a week and a half ago, I wrote a post claiming that the concept of the "late-round gem" defenseman was bunk. When I first started writing that blog, my actual goal was to show that I could quantify the ease of finding late-rounders on the blueline (as relative to forwards in those rounds.) What I ended up doing was quite the opposite. Here's a bit of my conclusion from that story:

If you're judging NHL games as being important and not the quality of the player in those games, it's not easier to draft defensemen in later rounds (as compared to the first round). There's no apparent "late-round defensive gem" effect. Late-round forward gems cancel it out.

Of course, at the time, I wasn't entirely satisfied with this answer, so I detailed a different methodology I wanted to try. I've run some of the numbers and will present them below.

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Here at SB Nation we hockey writers are conducting a Mock Draft as we head up to the real Draft next week. While I don't know which player the Thrashers will take at #8, I think the odds are very high that they will take one of three forwards from the WHL (Western Hockey League). I think they prefer Nino Niederreiter, but in our mock he was off the board by the time Atlanta picked--I wouldn't be surprised if the that happened in the actual draft as well.

That leaves a choice between RW Bret Connolly and C Ryan Johansen and I went with Connolly (but Johansen would be a fine choice too). The reason I went with Connolly is that there is widespread agreement that were it not for a hip injury that wiped out most of his season, Brett would certainly be picked in the top 5 of the NHL Draft. He has a good sized frame at 6'2" and terrific hands. He scored at an impressive rate as a 16 year old playing in the WHL. When I spoke to Thrashers Director of Scouting Dan Marr he made the comment that their area scout had "never seen him have a bad game" which is a pretty strong statement about the teenagers consistency.

The key question regarding Connolly is his health. He sprained one hip and tried to play through the injury--but he overcompensated and injured the opposite hip. He then proceeded to miss almost the entire WHL season. When he did return to the ice in late spring he played at a lower level then before. Was it a case of Connolly trying to do too much? Is it a permanent change? Or was it a case of Connolly being behind everyone else after missing nearly the entire regular season?

When I spoke to Dan Marr about this last year in scouting he made the observation that he had never seen so many injuries to key prospects his 20 years of following young players. I mentioned Connolly as an injured prospect and he replied that it was crucial for a club to do their homework and assess the situation. He sounded confident that Atlanta had done precisely their due diligence. In 1999 there were some questions regarding Patrick Stefan because he had suffered a concussion--the Thrashers did not pass over Stefan after conducting their own medical assessment.

It is hard to predict who will be left on the board for Atlanta at #8. My personal belief is that the Thrashers will take one of the WHL forwards and if Niederreiter is gone, I don't think the Thrashers will pass over Connolly based on his injury situation. If they think he is the best player available, they will take him.