Opinion
RFA Targets for this summer?
The UFA pool this summer is rather weak and it loaded with old guys who are near to their decline phase. As a Thrashers fan I want to see this team get better and avoid adding another Todd White or decline phase Slava Kozlov.
Another possible option would entail making an offer to a RFA (Restricted Free Agent). Tyler Dellow (aka Mudcrutch) makes the case that you don't want to make a offer to a RFA that would cost your club a high 1st rounder, but losing a high 2nd or 3rd rounder for a young sure fire NHL player is actually a solid bet. (The draft pick compensation awarded to a team that losses a RFA is determined by the amount of money that players signs for.)
If I ran an NHL team that had money to spend, I would be scouring the second and third lines of the really good teams that are tight to the cap, looking for players who might be able to play bigger roles and teams that can’t afford to pay people for potential, because they’re busy paying people for performance. Washington might be a pretty good example of that. The Caps are currently at $36.7MM for next year with an awful lot of guys to sign, including Nicklas Backstrom and Eric Fehr.
The Capitals are just one of several teams facing a real salary crunch as their players seek raises and the cap holds steady. Other teams on this list include Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia and perhaps Montreal. He tosses out some more names that could be signed for amounts that would only cost a 2nd or 3rd rounder.
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Reminder: Internet Radio Discussion Tomorrow Morning
Hey folks, just a quick reminder that the crew here from BWA will be discussing what went oh-so-wrong for the Thrashers' playoff hopes and if there's anything we can look forward to in 2010-2011.
You can get to the show right here.
Just a reminder: you can leave questions and comments for us here or call in (to the number provided on the page) during the show.
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Thrashers Outplay Predators-Lose Game and Perhaps Playoffs
If the hockey gods were just, the Atlanta Thrashers would have won last night. With their backs against the wall the team put forth one of their best efforts of the entire season. In my previous post, I questioned whether this team could adjust--and last night I watched them adjust:
- They released their shots MUCH more quickly.
- The recognized that the opposing goalie was allowing rebounds on nearly every shot and they threw pucks at the net.
- They were patient and made D-to-D passes in their own zone until they could set up a proper breakout.
- They managed to get through the neutral zone consistently against a good defensive team.
- Their goalie played well and gave them a chance to win.
- They battled hard for pucks along the wall and for rebounds in front of the net.
- They were unselfish with the puck and moved it to the open man.
If life was fair they would have exited that game with 2 points, but life is not always fair. Many times during this season the Thrashers only played hard in the 3rd period and came away with points. Last night they played hard for three periods and ended up with nothing to show for it. If the team played with that level of intensity all the time they would not be a desperate position.
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Thrashers Fail Against the Hard Trap Yet Again
I was incredibly disappointed by the Thrashers play on Sunday afternoon. I really had the urge to vent my spleen after that game but Timmyf beat me to that particular punch, so I'll try to be a bit more analytical in this post.
For as long as I can remember the Thrashers have ALWAYS struggled against teams that execute a hard trap in the neutral zone. A very simple explanation of the trap is that the defending team seeks to put all 5 of their skaters between the bluelines in the neutral zone which make it impossible to either skate with the puck or pass the puck in the neutral zone. The goal of the trap is to force the team to either a) play dump and chase style hockey or b) try to force passes that lead to turnovers and odd man rushes for the trapping team.
Because the Thrashers have built their roster around offense and passing the hard trap teams give them fits. If the Thrashers want to become a real playoff contender, then they must learn to make adjustments. If John Anderson wants to show that his uptempo systems work in the NHL, then his team must break the trap. The Thrashers tried to answer the trap by making perfect passes which played right into the hands of Carolina. To beat the trap you have to dump the puck deep and work as hard as they can to regain control in the offensive zone. It takes a LOT of hard work to beat the trap and too often the Thrashers went the lazy route and tried to make perfect passes.
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The Perils of Fandom: A Lament
DISCLAIMER: This post is a rant. There are almost no stats. If you're looking for stats, you best keep looking...
The Thrashers fan sitting in front of me at this evening's Carolina Hurricanes - Atlanta Thrashers, uhm, "game," was wearing a Ronald Petrovicky sweater.
I felt like I was watching the Thrashers circa Ronald Petrovicky.
As a self-proclaimed "stats guy," I wish there were something I could do to explain the team's sudden collapse. After two very strong games coming out of the Olympic break, the Thrashers have posted back-to-back stinkers. Front two? 5 goals/game. Back two? 1 goal/game. How about goals allowed/game? 2.5 versus 5. What could possibly explain this?
Honestly, I'm not all that interested. As a fan, things are always better than they seem when things are going badly and never as good as they seem when things are going well. There is nothing so distorting as being a sports fan.Take Canes fans, for example: tonight, they probably think their team is great. 8 wins in 9 games? A shutout on the road against a playoff bubble team? They must be feeling pretty high.
This rant continues after the jump...
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Trade Deadline Day: Modest Additions the Thrashers Could Acquire
The Thrashers have already been very active (Kovalchuk, Lehtonen, Oystrick) in the last month but other players (Kozlov, Armstrong, Afinogenov) could be moved before the Wednesday 3pm deadline. Who might the Thrashers target in terms of acquiring? Yesterday I suggested Wolski (COL) as a trade target.
What if a team called up and made a great offer for Maxim Afinogenov who is likely to depart this summer? The Thrashers would need to restock their scoring wingers. One guy who has not been mentioned a lot is Cory Stillman of Florida. I suspect that Stillman could be landed for a modest price. He's not fast, but has goal scorers hands and he is not afraid to stand in the crease area during a power play. He might make a nice addition to the power play unit.
A second possible trade target is Marek Svatos of Colorado. Svatos put together a nice 30 goal season after the lockout but has fallen on hard times in subsequent seasons. He struggled to get ice time and this year he has struggled to find the net. A bit of a project, but if the price is right he might benefit from a change of scenery.
Big Picture: The Thrashers are in the playoff hunt and are playing a very exciting brand of hockey since Kovalchuk was dealt. But I have a hard time seeing the present roster going too far in the playoffs, so it makes little sense to expend precious resources this particular trade deadline. On the other hand, just making the playoffs would be an important step forward for this franchise and adding a player like Stillman (or Wolski) might help in that effort.
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An Open Plea for Wojtek Wolski
Bob McKenzie is reporting that the Avalanche are considering trade offers for Wojtek Wolski. Now this is a trade I'd like to see the Thrashers make. Wolski is young, he's talented and he is not a rental. Wolski is 24 years old and makes $2.8 million. He will be a restricted free agent this summer and will likely earn more money.
One big problem for the Thrashers is that they will clear a lot of salary with the Kovalchuk and Kozlov trades--assuming the latter happens and even more Kubina re-signs--that is the good news. The bad news is that the crop of UFA available this summer is loaded with older guys who are either already in their decline years or very near their decline years. This particular UFA crop is rather uninspiring.
The Atlanta Thrashers still need to get younger and more talented at the same time. The free agent options will not really help them with the first part. Making a trade to add Wolski would enable them to fill out their roster with a still young player who can mature along with the core 26-and-under core of Bogosian, Kane, Bergfors, Little, Enstrom and Valabik.
Furthermore advanced metrics like Corsi numbers show that he is a guy who helps out his team at ES by playing in the good end of the ice. He is on pace for a 25 goal, 60 point season this year. Adding this player would be much better than adding some stop gap veteran fill in even at the cost of a pick and a prospect.
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