Way back in May, I took a stab at estimating the Thrashers cap situation for 2010-2011 season. A great deal has changed since that May post, so I thought it would be interesting to look at how much the roster has changed and what effect that has had on the team's projected salary cap number.

In terms of roster changes, the Thrashers did not re-sign Kubina or Afinogenov but did choose to re-sign Boulton and Slater. They walked away from MacArthur's arbitration award. They dealt away Reasoner to Chicago and acquired Sopel, Byfuglien, Ladd and Eager in two trades. They signed Chis Mason for one of the two goalies spots. At this point the only two unknown numbers are RFA salaries for Bryan Little and Nic Bergfors (I have estimated each at around 2.2 million cap hit).

Assuming my projections for Bergfors and Little are in the ball park, what is interesting to me is that the current team cap budget is actually $4 million less than my May projection for the club. Part of this difference is that the team has filled the D slot with the cheaper Sopel ($2.3) rather than my projected $4.5 million going to Kubina. The other major savings were at the goal position. I had budgeted $4.7 for Pavelec and mystery goalie, while the actual cap cost for Pavelec and Mason comes in at a low $3.0 million combined.

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Harry How - Getty Images

2 months ago: LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 25: Alexander Burmistrov, drafted eighth overall by the Atlanta Thrashers, poses on stage during the 2010 NHL Entry Draft at Staples Center on June 25, 2010 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

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Just arrived home from the on-ice session of the Atlanta Thrashers Prospect Camp. Here's some quick thoughts about some specific players that took the ice in Duluth today.

Alexander Burmistrov - One of the first things you notice about Alex is that he's tall and lanky; he's got his work cut out for him as far as adding some more mass before training camp. As the afternoon consisted of mostly offensive drills, I had some excellent chances to view his highly-touted puck skills. His speed set him apart from the rest of the group, and he used some nice moves to separate himself from defenders.  Another thing I noticed about Alex was his ice vision. There were a couple of times when he put the puck in a great shooting position, but his winger had skated past. He and prospect Ivan Telegin were paired up a couple of times, and they seemed to click well.

Akim Aliu - Akim was another guy that stood out, both physicaly and during drills. You could tell this wasn't his first prospect camp. He's got good speed and good jump, but something just wasn't there. In doing a little research, I found that over three seasons Aliu has spent over 50 games with the AHL Rockford Ice Hogs, and (according to Blackhawks prospect blog Red Rising) was demoted to the ECHL Toledo Walleye for his "lack of offensive production and discipline." The scouting reports I've read paint a picture of raw talent paired with a short fuse - the phrase "project player" came up a couple of times in my reading. Hopefully the change of scenery will do him some good.

Patrice Cormier - If you really look for it, you can spot the thing that gives Cormier that reputation of "playing with an edge". He skates mostly with his head down, with a low center of gravity, and you can sense the determination. He always wants the net, and he's not afraid to go for it, no matter who's in front of him. All of this afternoon's activities were pretty low-contact, so nothing got out of hand. As the session wound down, another thing I noticed was Cormier, Aliu and prospect Carl Klingberg working on one-timers and wrist shots as the other skaters were making their way off the ice. As the three of them began dumping pucks into buckets, I got the sense that it wasn't a show for the coaches, that in Cormier the Thrashers may have a workman-like leader in the future.

Overall, the increase in size was obvious from last year to this, and it seemed like the pace was a little more brisk as well. There were some familiar faces from last year: Daulton Leveille, Nicklas Lasu, and OSU centerman John Albert rocking some Camaro-ready hair. Check out the schedule over at the Thrashers' site and come down for one of the 4-on-4 scrimmages on Friday, Saturday, Sunday or Tuesday. The ice makes for a nice break from 100 degree Atlanta afternoons.

First, a few comments about Ladd from Jim Neveau over at Paint it Blackhawks:

The statistical impact of losing Andrew Ladd really won’t be felt too much by the Hawks, but the intangible impact he had on the team is unquestionably his greatest asset as a player. He frequently would park himself in front of the goal, creating screens and traffic better than just about anyone else on the team. He also had the ability to play a physical brand of hockey when the time called for it, and his two Stanley Cup rings are a testament to his ability to perform in big situations.

Those are pretty solid comments. In addition, I've repeatedly heard folks talking about Ladd's line playing against the top opposition every night. It sounds like he's a checking/shutdown line guy with a bit of a scoring touch. To evaluate those claims, I ran some numbers. The chart is below the jump.

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Right now it is very clear that the Thrashers lineup will be much more physical than in the past but the big question is can they score enough? I was worried about this as well so I created projections for every player.

Many people are just looking at the total points or goals scored by Ladd and Byfuglien and asking if they can REALLY replace the offense supplied by Kovalchuk, Kozlov, Afinogenov, Armstrong and Kubina. But you have to do a LOT more work to get a reasonable team projection.

The biggest adjustment is ice time. Last year Kovalchuk, Kozlov and Max played a ton of PP minutes. Those minutes have to be re-allocated to players like Evander Kane, Byfuglien and Ladd. So I did that for each player (see table below)

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Every year a number of NHL teams make big splashy singing on the first day of NHL Free Agency. Smart teams like the San Jose Sharks and Nashville Predators usually do nothing--and yet they compete for the playoffs every year. What is going on here? There are very few value (i.e. good bargain) contracts signed the first day. Cost efficient teams like the Sharks and Preds know this and obtain most of their talent through trades and the draft.

Why are there so few good UFA signings. Consider the "Winner's Paradox, wikipedia has a good explanation.

The winner of an auction is, of course, the bidder who submits the highest bid. Since the auctioned item is worth roughly the same to all bidders, they are distinguished only by their respective estimates. The winner, then, is the bidder making the highest estimate. If we assume that the average bid is accurate, then the highest bidder overestimates the item's value. Thus, the auction's winner is likely to overpay.

In plain English, if 10 teams are bidding on a player, the team that most values the player will win, and most of the time, the team that "most values" also "over values" that particular player.

The best bargain UFAs usually fall into three types 1) hometown discounts 2) Cup contender discounts 3) discounts to flawed or injured players and 4) inaccurately valued defensive players. Now the Thrashers have no shot at #2 sort of players right now. Last year they scooped up Maxim Afinogenov because of a disappointing injury plagued season. I suspect that a team could end up landing a flawed or discounted player like Demitra, O. Jokinen if they wait until other teams gorge themselves and blow their budget.

Over the last several years the Thrashers have been out of the playoff hunt and dealt roster players for assets. Yesterday those assets were exchanged for roster players.

1. The Thrashers moved Mathieu Schneider to Montreal Canadiens for a 2nd rounder. That 2nd rounder resulted in Jeremy Morin who was the key player heading to the Chicago Blackhawks.
2. Veteran Defenseman Nic Havelid was dealt for Anssi Salmela, who was later returned in the New Jersey Devils with Kovalchuk.
3. Star Ilya Kovalchuk went to the Devils for Nicklas Bergfors, Johnny Oduya, Patrice Cormier a 1st rounder and a swap of 2nd rounders (those picks went to Chicago yesterday).

So if you look at the Thrashers organization depth chart today, we can say that Havelid, Schneider and Kovalchuk have been translated into Bergfors, Oduya, Byfuglien, Eager, Sopel along with prospects Akim Aliu and Patrice Cormier.

The Chicago Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup this summer I recall reading a number of comments about how unfair it was that Dale Tallon wasn't getting sufficient credit for assembling this team. Well if Dale Tallon deserves credit for the Cup win, he certainly deserves the blame for the fire sale that is about to happen. The harsh reality is that Tallon set in motion both the construction and destruction of the current Chicago roster. He made a number of good choices (draft picks), bad choices (bloated free agent contracts) and mistakes (screwed up qualifying RFAs). Now Chicago is going to have to pay the piper. (click here to read my previous comments on Tallon's performance.)

Let's review the facts and assess the damage. The NHLPA invoked the 5% kicker on the salary cap. In essence this assumes that NHL revenues will grow by 5% and if it doesn't the players risk losing their money which is held in escrow during the season. Invoking the kicker puts next season's cap at $59.6 in cap dollars. Most NHL clubs can carry a cap expense of almost $60 million next year--but not Chicago. Why not? Bonus money.

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The NHL buy-out window will be open for the next two weeks. Only a few teams use this technique to get rid of contracts/players. The Thrashers have only gone this route one time to excise Alexei Zhitnik from their roster. How about Todd White? He's a potential candidate since the Thrashers will pay him $2.6 million next season with a cap hit of $2.35 million.

You may recall that Todd White was a below average 2nd line center who was signed to a four year contract at age 32 by Don Waddell. That contract (along with the Holik deal) was proof positive that Waddell really didn't understand the career curve (or thought he was smart enough to beat it). Most NHL players tend to go into decline after age 33--with the chief exception being Hall of Fame level or near Hall of Fame level talents. If you're going to have to overpay someone to come to Atlanta, better a younger player who is not a lock to become an boat anchor by the end of his deal.

I don't know of anyone who considered Todd White to be an elite forward three summers ago--and now Mr. White appears to have hit the wall last season at age 35. Nobody should be shocked by this development, Father Time comes calling on all us eventually. So if you're the Thrashers you have to ask yourself this question: what are the odds that at age 36 Todd White will rebound and be a productive forward who can handle top six ice time? I'd say the odds are lousy. If anything White appears on a trajectory to be this season's Slava Kozlov--a practice body who is a healthy scratch most of the 2nd half of the season.

So now it comes down to doing your basic cost/benefit analysis. What are the costs? If you buy out Todd White he is due 2/3rds of his final season salary and 2/3rd of his cap hit will count against the cap. The cap hit is spread out across the next two seasons, but considering that the Thrashers are nowhere close to the cap ceiling, they need not  worry about the cap expense. The real problem is this: Atlanta will owe White $1.73 million and they will then need to spend money paying someone to replace White on the roster. Let's project that Carl Klingberg takes White's roster spot and he earns $0.8 million in the NHL. The total cost for the buying out and replacing White is $2.6 million or a complete wash in terms of money saved.

So the decision to keep or replace White shouldn't be driven by a dollars calculation but rather one about ice time and player development. Are the Atlanta Thrashers going to get closer to being a contender because they retain Todd White at $2.6 million? Or are the Atlanta Thrashers going to be closer to being a contender by buying out Todd White and playing Carl Klingberg at a cost of $2.6 million. In my mind the 2nd option is clearly the better route.