Bird Watchers Anonymous: FanPosts

Adding Injury to Injury

2010-03-10T00:27:03Z

Evander Kane is out 3 weeks with a fractured foot. Christoph Schubert is out 3-5 weeks with a hip injury. Expect Arturs Kulda or Chris Chelios to be called up this week to help on the blueline. Discuss!

Hopefully Something Big Happens

2010-03-03T19:11:46Z

Pierre LeBrun: "Note from Thrashers front office source, ``stay tuned."

Something is coming down the pipe from Atlanta"

Wednesday March 3, 2010 13:58 Pierre LeBrun Hopefully after that article about Kozlov, he may be good as gone, with less than an hour left till the 3PM deadline lets just hope DW doesn't mess this one up. Hey maybe we will still get wolski even though hes already been traded once today. Stranger things have happend.

Thrashers Acquire Artyukhin for Oystrick, Conditional Pick

2010-03-02T02:10:27Z

We'll update with info on the pick whenever it's available. Discuss below. Minor deal, obviously...

For what it's worth, I remember seeing Artyukhin playing with the Bolts and thinking... "God, that's a guy I'd love to have here." He's a giant. He's enormous. He hits like crazy. Is he more than a depth winger? Nah, probably not. But he's managed to score a few points while playing very, very limited ice time in Anaheim. With the addition of Oduya and the play of Kulda and Postma, Oystrick was done as a Thrasher.

We seem to make this sort of deal with Anaheim frequently. Donny's got a friend out west...

Poll

Rate the Artyukhin trade:

Penalty Kill Effectiveness : A new way to look at an old stat?

2010-02-28T16:17:16Z

In a game I was watching not too long ago a series of events transpired to make me question the validity, or at least accuracy, of a fundamental NHL statistic. During the game a minor penalty was taken. However, on the ensuing faceoff, the team with the advantage committed a minor erasing the power play. So what you ask? Well the official score sheet will show that the original offending team was 1 for 1 on the penalty kill (and this would repeat on the back end for the 2nd penalty for the other team) by simply killing off a measly 2 seconds of clock time.

This got me to thinking. How often does this happen? A successful penalty kill lasting less than the standard 2 minutes? Does this occur enough over the course of a season where it would misrepresent a team’s true penalty killing ability?

I wanted to see if I could find an answer to these questions. As a result I began tracking every penalty kill for the 2009-10 season. I’ve used the official score sheets from NHL.com to see how every team is faring while down in manpower.

My initial theory is that the current measurement does not accurately reflect a team’s true capacity for killing penalties thanks to shortened penalties skewing the success rates. If the average time of a successful kill can be shown to be impacted by scenarios akin to the opening paragraph I’d like to propose a new measurement. I’d then like to compare this measurement against the current statistics to see if there is any difference in the rankings.

First there is the existing data. As we enjoy the Olympic break there have been 921 games played in the NHL this season. During these 921 contests there have been 6961 officially recorded manpower advantages. The total time spent in the box, league-wide, is 11,275 minutes and 22 seconds or nearly 188 hours. Currently the NHL calculates PK success as goals allowed per times short handed with no regard for the amount of time killed. According to NHL.com the official rankings for penalty killing effectiveness:

Chart

Penalty-Killing Percentage Leaders

RK	TEAM	GP	PPGA	TSH	PCT	SHG
1	Buffalo	60	28	207	86.5	3
2	San Jose	62	34	249	86.3	7
3	Boston	60	30	215	86	3
4	St. Louis	62	38	260	85.4	6
5	Chicago	61	32	211	84.8	10
6	New York Rangers	62	39	253	84.6	5
7	Montreal	63	42	255	83.5	2
8	Phoenix	63	41	248	83.5	2
9	Ottawa	63	40	240	83.3	6
10	Colorado	61	40	240	83.3	7
11	Pittsburgh	62	41	245	83.3	6
12	Calgary	62	41	244	83.2	6
13	Columbus	63	44	250	82.4	5
14	Detroit	61	37	208	82.2	4
15	Minnesota	61	39	216	81.9	4
16	Atlanta	60	43	234	81.6	8
17	Carolina	61	48	252	81	6
18	New Jersey	61	36	189	81	6
19	Philadelphia	60	49	255	80.8	5
20	Vancouver	61	46	239	80.8	6
21	Anaheim	62	49	252	80.6	5
22	Tampa Bay	61	48	245	80.4	2
23	Los Angeles	61	45	225	80	4
24	Florida	61	44	218	79.8	6
25	Washington	62	52	249	79.1	3
26	Dallas	61	45	198	77.3	6
27	New York Islanders	62	53	221	76	5
28	Nashville	61	50	208	76	5
29	Edmonton	61	53	220	75.9	4
30	Toronto	61	61	215	71.6	3

Now that we know who the NHL thinks are the most effective killers of penalties I’d like to start to look at numbers that interest me.

So. How long is the average successful penalty kill?

Unfortunately, since I was taking high level numbers from the score sheets, I do not have a 100% sample of penalty kills. What I do have, however, is the ability to parse out those games where teams successfully killed all penalties in a game and the time served. Using this method I have captured 2928 short handed situations out of the 6960 overall. This 42% sample size at a 99% confidence level gives us an average penalty kill time within a 2% margin of error

These 2928 advantages were successfully erased in a total time of 5,204 minutes for an average of 1:46 per kill.

I find it interesting to note that the needle moved nearly a full 15 seconds off the standard 2 minute kill. On average the penalty killers only have to successfully combat 88% (14/120) of a called pen.

More data is required to see if this is consistent year over year but for the purposes of killing time during the Olympic break I am going to use this as my standard.

My next contention is that a penalty kill unit that gets scored on 1:59 into an advantage was more effective than a unit that allowed a goal within the first 10 seconds. Not rocket science here. The longer you go without allowing a goal while a man down the better you are at killing penalties.

I make this statement to pave the way for introducing a new way of measuring penalty kill effectiveness.

Where am I going with this? Something akin to an earned run average in baseball. Baseball pitchers are held to a standard that puts the runs they allow against a standard over innings pitched. I’d like to do the same for hockey. Take the goals allowed, against a standard, over minutes served. Speaking formulaically

Baseball: ERA is calculated as Earned runs*9 / innings pitched.

Hockey: I’d like to propose: PP goals allowed*1:46 / minutes short handed

If we plug in the numbers farmed from the score sheets we get:

TSH = Number of short handed opportunities

PPGA = goals allowed while down a man

PK% = penalty kill percentage – league measurement

Time SH = actual amount of clock time with numerical disadvantage

PKA = Penalty Kill Average – New Overmars measurement

NHL Rank = PK rankings as determined by NHL currently

PKA Rank = PK ranking as determined by goals allowed and total time served

Team	TSH	PPGA	PK%	Time SH	PKA	NHL Rank	PKA Rank
Buffalo	207	28	86.5%	341:15:00	3:28:44	1	1
San Jose	249	34	86.3%	412:43:00	3:29:35	2	2
Boston	215	30	86.0%	351:27:00	3:37:09	3	3
St Louis	259	38	85.3%	436:15:00	3:41:36	4	4
Chicago	211	33	84.4%	354:57:00	3:56:31	5	5
New York Rangers	253	39	84.6%	407:01:00	4:03:46	6	6
Montreal	255	42	83.5%	419:56:00	4:14:26	7	7
Calgary	244	41	83.2%	407:22:00	4:16:03	11	8
Colorado	238	40	83.2%	390:05:00	4:20:52	12	9
Pittsburgh	245	41	83.3%	397:50:00	4:22:11	10	10
Ottawa	240	40	83.3%	388:00:00	4:22:16	9	11
Phoenix	248	41	83.5%	394:08:00	4:24:38	8	12
Detroit	208	37	82.2%	349:14:00	4:29:32	14	13
Atlanta	234	43	81.6%	388:25:00	4:41:38	16	14
Columbus	250	44	82.4%	396:12:00	4:42:31	13	15
Minnesota	216	39	81.9%	350:51:00	4:42:47	15	16
Vancouver	239	46	80.8%	397:57:00	4:54:04	20	17
New Jersey	189	36	81.0%	310:56:00	4:54:33	18	18
Carolina	254	48	81.1%	409:18:00	4:58:21	17	19
Tampa Bay	246	48	80.5%	397:04:00	5:07:32	22	20
Philadelphia	255	49	80.8%	402:50:00	5:09:27	19	21
Anaheim	252	49	80.6%	401:54:00	5:10:10	21	22
Los Angeles	225	45	80.0%	368:58:00	5:10:16	23	23
Florida	218	44	79.8%	343:39:00	5:25:44	24	24
Washington	249	52	79.1%	402:07:00	5:28:59	25	25
Dallas	198	45	77.3%	316:16:00	6:01:58	26	26
New York Islanders	221	53	76.0%	344:48:00	6:31:03	27	27
Edmonton	220	53	75.9%	344:21:00	6:31:33	29	28
Nashville	208	50	76.0%	317:21:00	6:40:49	28	29
Toronto	215	61	71.6%	332:12:00	7:47:08	30	30
League tot/avg	6961	1289	81.5%	11275:22:00	4:59:54

Well. Now that the math is done we see that there is no real change at the top or the bottom of the rankings. The existing and the proposed measurements both recognize who is the best and the worst of the lot. What I’m liking about the new measurement is that it allows for further definition for the middle of the pack:

Team	TSH	PPGA	PK%	Time SH	PKA	NHL Rank	PKA Rank	Change
Montreal	255	42	83.5%	419:56:00	4:14:26	7	7	0
Phoenix	248	41	83.5%	394:08:00	4:24:38	8	12	-4
Ottawa	240	40	83.3%	388:00:00	4:22:16	9	11	-2
Pittsburgh	245	41	83.3%	397:50:00	4:22:11	10	10	0
Calgary	244	41	83.2%	407:22:00	4:16:03	11	8	3
Colorado	238	40	83.2%	390:05:00	4:20:52	12	9	3
Columbus	250	44	82.4%	396:12:00	4:42:31	13	15	-2
Detroit	208	37	82.2%	349:14:00	4:29:32	14	13	1
Minnesota	216	39	81.9%	350:51:00	4:42:47	15	16	-1
Atlanta	234	43	81.6%	388:25:00	4:41:38	16	14	2
Carolina	254	48	81.1%	409:18:00	4:58:21	17	19	-2
New Jersey	189	36	81.0%	310:56:00	4:54:33	18	18	0
Philadelphia	255	49	80.8%	402:50:00	5:09:27	19	21	-2
Vancouver	239	46	80.8%	397:57:00	4:54:04	20	17	3
Anaheim	252	49	80.6%	401:54:00	5:10:10	21	22	-1
Tampa Bay	246	48	80.5%	397:04:00	5:07:32	22	20	2

We can clearly see that the inclusion of time into the measurement does allow us a deeper dive into determining the worth of a team’s penalty kill. Take, for instance, the numbers for Pittsburgh and Calgary. They have both allowed 41 goals with a manpower disadvantage. Since Pittsburgh has faced one more penalty kill the NHL says they are .1% better than Calgary in this category. However, Calgary has faced nearly 10 more minutes of PK time, and under our new format is rewarded for allowing fewer goals per time served.

I concede that there is not nearly enough historical data available to ensure that the standard used in the PKA is valid, however, seeing the average time for a penalty kill drop so significantly and positions changing so dynamically makes me believe that this measurement is worthy of further research. To be continued?

Thrashers Call Up Kulda

2010-02-11T18:19:53Z

Today the Atlanta Thrashers called up defenseman Arturs Kulda from the AHL's Chicago Wolves. Kulda, 21, has 3 goals and 12 assists in 42 games with the Wolves and is an AHL-leading +35. The 6-2, 195lb Latvian blueliner was drafted in the 7th round, 200th overall, by the Thrashers in 2006. He has yet to play in a regular-season game for the Thrashers.

Of note, Kulda was also Zach Bogosian's defense partner while playing with the OHL's Peterborough Petes.

Poll

Kulda has been called up to...

Play two games before the Olympic break.

79 votes

Get practice in with the team before a D-man is traded.

39 votes

Safeguard against further injury.

22 votes

Watch Thrashers games from the press box.

8 votes

148 votes | Poll has closed

Trail of Tears - Atlanta Thrashers and the 1st round of the Entry Draft

2010-02-10T16:59:59Z

With Ilya Kovalchuk and Kari Lehtonen being traded within a week I thought I’d look at the history of the Atlanta Thrashers first round draft picks. What I found is an odyssey of Homerific proportions. A curse as big as any EA Sports video game cover . I offer you the sad legacy of Atlanta Thrashers first round draft selections. How they got here and where they are today. Keep a box of Kleenex close by. You may become emotional

1999 – Patrick Stefan. 1st overall.

Acquired from the Vancouver Canucks with a conditional 3rd rounder for the Thrashers 2nd overall pick

Played 6 seasons for the Thrashers. 414 games played, 59 goals, 118 assists.

Traded to Dallas with Jaroslav Modry for Niko Kapanen and a 7th rounder in the 2006 draft (Will O’Neill).

No longer in the game at 29 years of age

2000 – Dany Heatley. 2nd overall

Played parts of 3 seasons for the Thrashers. 190 games played. 80 goals, 101 assists.

Traded to the Ottawa Senators 8/23/05. Move was prompted by a tragic auto accident where teammate and personal friend Dan Snyder was killed.

Thrashers received Marian Hossa and defenseman Greg DeVries in exchange.

Heatley has subsequently been moved from Ottawa following the players trade request. He now plies his trade extraordinarily well for the San Jose Sharks.

2001 - Ilya Kovalchuk. 1st overall

Played 7 and a half seasons in Atlanta. Team leader in most offensive categories including nose hairs (thanks Bob Ueker!). 594 games played, 328 goals, 287 assists

Traded to the New Jersey Devils last week with Anssi Salmala for Nicklas Bergfors, Johnny Oduya, Patrice Cormier, a first round pick in the 2010 entry draft and a swap of 2nd round picks.

2002 – Kari Lehtonen. 2nd overall

Thrashers received 2002 3rd (used in acquiring the 30th overall – Slater) and 2003 4th rounder (later traded to Phx I believe. It’s muddy. Think this eventually became Lance Monych) from Florida Panthers for not selecting Jay Bouwmeester

Played in 204 games for the Thrashers, 196 as a starter over parts of 5 seasons. Career record of 94-83-17, 2.87 GAA and .912 save percentage

The Thrashers received defenseman Ivan Vishnevskiy and a fourth-round pick in the 2010 draft from the Dallas Stars last night for Lehtonen.

Jim Slater – 30th overall

From USA Today:

No. 30 (Detroit to Atlanta via Buffalo and Columbus): Detroit trades this pick, 2003 conditional pick and Vyacheslav Kozlov to Buffalo for Dominik Hasek. Buffalo trades this pick to Columbus with Mike Pandolfo for first-round pick (No. 20 overall, Daniel Paille) on June 22, 2002. Columbus trades this pick to Atlanta for Buffalo's second-round pick (No. 41 overall, Joakim Lindstrom) and Detroit's third-round pick (No. 96 overall, Jeff Genovy) on June 22, 2002.

2003 – Braydon Coburn. 8th overall

Played parts of 2 seasons for the Thrashers amassing 38 appearances. Never scored a goal but did tally 5 assists.

Traded to the Philadelphia Flyers on 2/24/07 for Alexei Zhitnik. He remains a Flyer to this day to mixed reviews of the Philly fans on hfboards.

2004 – Boris Valabik. 10th overall

Remains with the team. Has made 80 appearances for the big club. Has not scored and has 7 assists. Currently out for the season with a tear of his ACL.

2005 – Alex Bourret. 16th overall

Thrashers traded down twice prior to taking Bourret. Their original pick was 8th overall. Traded to the San Jose Sharks (David Setoguchi). Thrashers received the 12th overall pick, second round pick (Chad Denny) and 7th rounder (Myles Stoesz) in the 2005 draft.

Thrashers trade the 12th overall pick to the New York Rangers (Marc Staal) for the 16th overall pick (Bourret) and a second round selection (Ondrej Pavelec)

Bourret never played for the Thrashers as on February 26, 2007, Bourret was traded to the New York Rangers in exchange for Pascal Dupuis and a 3rd round pick in the 2007 Draft . The Thrashers traded this pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins (Robert Bortuzzo) for Chris Thorburn

Bourret has not made the NHL and after a brief stint in the Czech League it appears he has settled in Las Vegas. Playing for the ECHL’s Wranglers. He has 12 points in 11 games this year including 5 goals.

2006 – Bryan Little. 12th overall

Remains a Thrasher. Over parts of 3 seasons Little has played in 181 games, has 90 points including 46 goals. He did have a 30 goal season in 2008-09.

2007 - Did not have a 1st round draft pick. Would have drafted in the 18th spot

Calgary Flames selected Ian Cole in this spot after trading with the St Louis Blues.

The Blues had acquired this selection along with Glen Metropolit, a 3rd rounder in 2007 (Brett Sonne), a second round pick in 2008 (Philip McRae) and a conditional 1st in 2008 if Tkachuk resigned with Atlanta. He did not so the pick was returned to Atlanta.

2008 – Zach Bogosian. 3rd overall

Bogosian suffered a broken leg his rookie season but over portions of 2 seasons he has played 104 games, scored 18 times and has 39 points.

Daultan Leveille – 29th overall.

Attending Michigan State University. Pick acquired in trade of

Marian Hossa to the Pittsburgh Penguins

2009 – Evander Kane. 4th overall

Started as 18 year old rookie. Has played in 56games with 12 goals and 10 assists

Jimmy Slater for Mr. January

2010-01-29T19:42:11Z

I got a game-worn Jimmy Slater jersey for my wedding anniversary last year and I wave a giant Slater banner at Thrashers home games, so it’s no surprise that when my husband saw Falconer’s call for someone to pen a blog post about Slater’s recent performance, he looked to me.

I tried to protest, since I don’t have a mental list of stats and facts at the ready. I’m not enough of a hard-core hockey fan, I argued. But, my husband reasoned, I am at least a hard-core Slater fan.

One of the attributes that makes me a fan of the center seems to be a large contributor to his breakout play throughout January: non-stop hustle and an obvious passion for the sport. I realize there are plenty of "Slater haters" out there, largely because many feel that he hasn’t lived up to his first-round draft pick promise. Say what you will about talent, but no one has ever doubted Slater’s work ethic.

For the first half of the season, Slater was on the bubble of the roster, often finding himself the odd man out. He was a healthy scratch for 21 of the first 38 games of the season. That lack of consistent ice time—not to mention that demoralizing seat in the press box—is a recipe for making a player out of practice and out of spirits. Not so for Slater: fans heading to the Ice Forum to watch Thrashers practice often saw Slater on the ice after most of the team had called it a day. He worked on handling, getting pucks into the net and, yes, staying upright on his skates.

If Slater’s goal throughout January was to prove to John Anderson that he shouldn’t be on the scratch rotation, then mission accomplished. His determination and newfound confidence has turned into a stellar performance in January’s 14 games. In that time, he has scored six goals for a season total of seven. That’s seven goals in just 32 games, compared to just eight goals in 60 games during the 2008-09 season.

Slater scored two goals against the Pittsburgh Penguins, and his second goal against the Philadelphia Flyers was the game-winner, propelling the Thrashers back into a playoff spot.

For those of you thinking, "Sure, he’s been playing well, but it’s a team effort," you’re right. Slater has been especially effective since Anderson drastically changed the lines. First paired with Evander Kane and Bryan Little, and now Kane and Colby Armstrong, Slater seems to have found the right chemistry to really get going. He and Kane share speed, a solid work ethic and a tendency to head for the net.

It’s a pairing that has paid off for Kane, too. He’s been trying his solo wraparound move all season, usually without result. Both of Slater’s goals against Philly were the result of Kane adding a pass to Slater after his signature wraparound. Even Army, who seems to be struggling to find his stride this year, has scored two goals and one assist while on the ice with Kane and Slater. During the five games that the trio has been together, they have earned a total of 11 points, including five goals. (And I still say this line should be called the Slayer line.)

The hustle and results the Kane-Slater-Army line has been producing should be an example to the rest of the Thrashers. It’s refreshing to see that kind of passion on a nightly basis, shift after shift.

Slater is January’s featured player in my Thrashers calendar. Mr. January, indeed. When it comes to goals, Slater has only broken into the double digits once: he scored 10 during the 2005-06 season, his first as a Thrasher. At this rate, Slater will easily surpass his previous scoring record. Here’s hoping that Slater’s January lasts well into the playoffs.

Kovi, where were you??

2010-01-27T15:06:44Z

I believe that last night's game with the Ducks was proof that the Thrashers can compete without Kovi. His body was there skating around the ice but his brain seemed to be counting the 100 million. He was sluggish, always late to the puck, could not handle the puck and continued to skate off the ice shaking his head. Now, maybe he had the flu bug or something and if so then I apologize. If not, he should have just moved down to the end of the bench, got out of the way and watched the rest of the game. The Thrashers won that game with awesome goal tending by the Moose, excellent defense (which rarely shows up) and by finally getting the job done on the power play. I love Kovi because he usually plays with heart, doesn't mind hitting people and will drop the gloves in those rare times when his teammates won't step up. However, he is easily rattled in the big games when guys like Avery start harrassing him and I think at times he tries to do it all himself. Now that I think about it, there are lots of times when he DOES HAVE to do it all himself...hmmmmm. He sort of reminds me of the Falcons when they had Michael Vick. He was fun to watch and could do some amazing things but the Falcons were never going to win a Super Bowl with Vick as the quarter back. Enough said.

Keeper Fantasy League

2010-01-22T18:44:47Z

Would anyone be interested in being a GM for a keeper fantasy team? You would inherit either the Penguins, Sharks, or Canucks. We're currently about midway through this season, but it would still be a good time to take over a team. If anyone is interested, here is the link: http://gmhl2.proboards.com/index.cgi? I'm currently the only thrashers fan in the league, so having another one would be nice. Thanks!

Custance chats with Levenson about Kovy contract

2010-01-16T17:56:36Z

Great post by Custance interviewing Levenson: http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/The_Grinder/entry/view/52076/thrashers_owner_no_frustration_yet_over_lack_of_kovalchuk_deal

Very satisfying to hear Levenson admit they made "rookie mistakes." It's hard for a leader in his position to admit he's been wrong and helps everyone heal from those mistakes.

“The patience we showed on the basketball side, we didn’t have on the hockey side. You can call it impatience or you can call it trying to seize an opportunity with the All-Star game coming. We made some mistakes,” he said. “We’ve learned from those mistakes and think we have an interesting core of young players.”

Let's just not make another mistake by overpaying Kovy long term.

Will the Thrashers and Kovalchuk get a deal done before the March 3 trade deadline?

“No idea. I have no idea,” Levenson said. “We have put offers on the table that make sense for our team going forward and that we think are fair with the reality that Kovy is one of the great, great players in the game.”

http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/The_Grinder/entry/view/52076/thrashers_owner_no_frustration_yet_over_lack_of_kovalchuk_deal

Does attendance influence on ice performance?

2010-01-05T21:51:01Z

While compiling the attendance numbers I got to wondering how the team has performed in front of big and small crowds. That then morphed into how the team has played at home on the whole. What follows is an amalgamation of these thoughts. Past precedent is not a pure predictor of pending production but I thought it would be interesting to take a deeper dive into how the Thrashers have fared at home since the lockout.

Atlanta’s overall home record: 92-72-18

2005-06 through 2008-09: 84-65-15

This season: 8-7-3

I actually have to admit that I was a little surprised at how well the Thrashers have done at Philips especially considering they were doormats in the 2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons. While it appears you have just about a 50/50 chance of seeing a Thrashers win if you’re heading to the Bulb the team is not engaged in an encouraging trend:

2005-6: 24-13-4

2006-7: 23-12-6

2007-8: 19-19-3

2008-9: 18-21-2

Does it make a difference to the team if there is a big crowd or not? It’s a sports cliché that players ride on the emotion of the crowd to spur them to victory. Can this theory be proven? I wanted to take a look at how the team performed when the barn is full as well as when the crowds are a huge disappointment, less than 70% capacity, fewer than 13,000 fans.

There have been 30 sell out crowds of 18,545 or more since the players returned to the rinks in 2005-06. The Thrashers are 14-13-3 during these contests. Slightly worse than their winning percentage overall (92/182- 51% : 14/30- 47%).

At the other end of the spectrum when the Thrash play to little more than the organist, 27 games with crowds <13K, their record is 14-11-2. Slightly better than overall (14/27 - 52%).

You'd think it would be in the teams best interests if the folks just stayed at home? However, when we look at big crowds that fall just shy of stuffed, it appears as if the team performs much better. They’ve played 27 times with house between 90-98% full. Their record is 18-6-3. Seems to me that the organization should start turning folks away as we approach 18,545.

What has history told us about performance by month or day of the week?

Considering our remaining schedule looks like this:

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

Jan 3 3 1

Feb 1 1

Mar 2 1 4 3 1 1

Apr 1 1

A further dig into the numbers to show prior results matched up to our remaining schedule:

Historical January results:

Tuesday: 3-3-0

Thursday: 0-3-2

Saturday: 1-1-0

Historical February results:

Tuesday: 1-1-1

Saturday: 3-2-0

Historical March results:

Sunday: 3-0-0

Monday: 4-0-0

Tuesday: 1-2-0

Thursday: 6-1-0

Friday: 3-3-0

Saturday: 2-1-0

Historical April Results:

Tuesday: 0-2-0

Saturday: 6-0-0

Where do you think the home record will end up?

Thrashers Attendance

2010-01-04T23:08:49Z

EDITORS NOTE: This FanPost by Mr. Overmars does a great job of testing many assumptions people have about what affects the Thrashers attendance with a look at the actual data. So I moved this to the main page so that more people would have a chance to read it.

Much has been made about Thrashers attendance from both in and outside of the fan base. I’ve long thought of Atlanta as an event town. Meaning that you have to make something special in order for the town folk to give you any attention. For the Thrashers I believe consistent winning constitutes an event. The one thing that makes the Thrashers appointment viewing. Since we've yet to become must-see in our own town I’ve decided to take a deeper dive in to the numbers focusing on the seasons following the lock out of 2004-05 and give some special consideration to some popular myths.

Since said lockout there have been 182 games played in Philips Arena including the 18 matches contested this season to date.

Looking at the big picture.

The Thrashers have averaged 15,373 attendees over these 182 games which comes to 83% of capacity (18,545). Over this same span the other 29 teams have combined to average 17,230 (94%). The Thrashers rank 29th, in average capacity (13,745; 74.1%) this season after averaging 23rd in the league the previous 4 seasons. Thanks Coyotes.

The trend?

2009-10: 13,745 (74.1%)

2008-09: 14.626 (78.9%) 76 points

2007-08: 15,831 (85.4%) 76 points

2006-07: 16,240 (87.6%) 97 points * Made Post Season

2005:06: 15,550 (83.8%) 90 points

The bloom is most certainly off the rose as we’ve seen Thrashers attendance settle to near worst in the league despite a team that had been successful on the ice through the first third of the 2009-10 season. In fairness, it appears as if the city has responded when the club has won. In 2006-07 the club played to 93% capacity over the last quarter of the season averaging 17,328 fans per game (5 reported sell outs in 11 games). Unfortunately this is really not a significant sample size to know if the fans will be there consistently if the team ices a winning product.

Myth: Atlanta fans wait for football season to end before focusing on the hockey season. Because of travel in the southeast for football there is less time/disposable income for hockey games. What does the data say?

Average Attendance by month

2005-09 09-10 to date

October: 14,932 14,894

November: 14,931 13,098

December: 15,970 13,994

January: 14,958 tbd

February: 16,361 tbd

March: 15,563 tbd

April: 17,287 tbd

While the numbers seem to support this theory with the average attendance spiking nicely in February and April I remain skeptical. Since February (circus) and April (season end) are typically thin for home games and my skew the data I thought it would be interesting to take a deeper dive to see if there is a correlation on days of the week during the football season.

Myth: Fridays in the south is for high school football. Families will not be available to attend games as they’ll be at school functions.

The data:

Friday night average attendance from 2005-2010: 16,667 (90%).

October: 16,339

November: 16,634

December: 16,273

January: 16,355

February: 17,067

March: 17,602

April: n/a

Average attendance on Fridays

With high school football in season: 16,511

While high school football is out: 16,755

Myth: Busted. The numbers in December and January, when high schools are typically finished with their regular seasons, remain consistent with the in season numbers. There is no direct data to show that Friday Night football is the reason for keeping the people out of the seats We clearly show an uptick on Fridays later in the season but it cannot be attributed to the end of the high school football slate.

Myth: The south is college football crazy. Scheduling games on Saturdays is murder as the locals are focused on the Bulldogs and Jackets.

Lets move over to Saturdays shall we?

Average Saturday night attendance 2005-10: 17,178 (93% capacity)

October: 16,190

November: 16,466

December: 16,456

January: 18,625

February: 18,545

March: 18,070

April: 18,103

Myth: Confirmed. The numbers during the football season on Saturday are drastically lower than post bowl season. Interesting to note that Saturdays in January and February have averaged a sell out over the past 5 years. Going next level I was actually surprised to learn that the biggest inhibitor to Thrashers attendance was not the UGA Bulldogs but rather the Jackets of Tech. The numbers:

Thrasher attendance when UGA plays that same day: 16,484

Thrasher attendance when GT plays the same day: 15,990

Since there is some cross over on the weekend they play each other I thought I’d look at those weekends when ONLY Tech or UGA plays:

UGA only: 17,619 average attendance

GT only: 14,945 average attendance

As a control figure I also took a look at those Saturdays where neither Tech nor UGA played during the football season: 16,356.

In the interest of full disclosure Georgia has played on opening night twice and Tech only once. Opening nights are typically sell outs so that inflated the Bulldog numbers quite a bit. Regardless, it’s clear that even if the local elevens are off the region is focused on the gridiron rather than the ice.

What about Sundays? Do the Falcons have any impact on the Thrashers attendance?

All time Sunday: 14,497 (78%)

November: 12,000

December: 16,088

January: 15,311

February: 14,175

March: 16,618

Average when Falcons play: 12,806 ; Average when Falcons don't play: 15,624

That would be yes. In a big way. The largest swing of the football competition. Don’t let anyone fool you. This is a pro football town.

Does the opponent matter? We’ve long heard that Atlanta is a city of transplants from the north. The Thrashers are struggling to achieve a solid fan base because the out of towners have not abandoned their affiliations with the previous teams. Below are the averages for each team. Phoenix, I believe, can be taken with a grain of salt as they’ve only appeared in Atlanta once and that was on a non football season Friday night. I guess everyone wanted to get a glimpse at Gretzky.

Poor St Louis has come to town on Falcon Sundays twice in their 3 visits. They were doomed from the start. Also of note is the poor draw that is Nashville.

Many Thrashers fans have desired a regular meeting with the Preds due to their geographic proximity. I think we may want to temper this movement as there appears to be little interest for the Predators outside of the resident topographers

Team	Avg att	% cap
Phoenix	18545	100.00%
Detroit	18052	97.34%
Pittsburgh	16221	87.47%
Washington	16218	87.45%
Philadelphia	16212	87.42%
NY Rangers	16177	87.23%
Anaheim	16028	86.43%
Vancouver	15858	85.51%
Tampa Bay	15788	85.13%
Carolina	15758	84.97%
Buffalo	15755	84.96%
San Jose	15656	84.42%
Toronto	15606	84.15%
New Jersey	15494	83.55%
Montreal	15459	83.36%
AVG	15373	82.90%
Minnesota	15276	82.37%
Dallas	15251	82.24%
Boston	15105	81.45%
Calgary	14857	80.11%
Ottawa	14761	79.60%
Chicago	14685	79.19%
Los Angeles	14422	77.77%
NY Islanders	14366	77.47%
Florida	14088	75.97%
Nashville	13916	75.04%
Edmonton	13887	74.88%
Columbus	13566	73.15%
Colorado	13095	70.61z
St Louis	13001	70.11%

Ultimately without regard to opponent or other goings on the true trump card for Thrashers attendance is simply the day of the week. Over the past 5 seasons the average by day of the week breaks down as:

Sunday: 14,997

Monday: 13,795

Tuesday: 13,929

Wednesday: 14,702

Thursday: 14,581

Friday: 16,667

Saturday: 17,178

A bit tough for the Thrashers this season as their remaining home schedule loads them up on tough draw nights:

Sun: 2

Mon: 1

Tue: 9

Wed: 0

Thu: 6

Fri: 1

Sat: 4

Thus I think its safe to surmise that Atlanta is NOT a hockey town. The people will allegedly show up to the arena if they are playing well but we have not seen enough winning in Atlanta to generate a passion. As it stands the Thrashers remain one of many entertainment options in the city. We see larger crowds on the “date nights” and continue to struggle on work/school nights. Until the team starts winning with regularity this team is not a must attend event.

Sources:

Thrasher attendance figures courtesy of www.atlantathrashers.com

MLB, NFL, NBA attendance figures courtesy of espn.com except 2005 Atlanta Falcons which was pulled from atlantafalcons.com

Atlanta stadia capacity figures courtesy of espn.com except Atlanta Hawks which was pulled from the Philips Arena Wikipedia site, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philips_Arena.

NHL Capacities courtesy of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ice_hockey_arenas_by_capacity

Fastest/youngest players to 600 points

2010-01-02T01:12:07Z

As Ilya Kovalchuk approaches another personal milestone (his last one with the Thrashers? Cue the trade talks...), I wanted to take another look at the fastest/youngest players to reach 600 points in their NHL career. Here is what I have so far (after the jump).

Fastest players to 600 points:

Gretzky: less than 4 seasons

Lemieux: less than 5 seasons

Statstny, Bossy, Kurri, Hawerchuk, Trottier, Denis Savard and Coffey: less than 6 seasons

Robitaille, Yzerman, Lafleur, Dionne, Selanne, Turgeon, Goulet, Jagr, Sakic, Nilsson, Anderson, Clarke, Orr, Hull, Lindros, Propp: less than 7 seasons

Another 22 players accomplishing this feat in less than 8 seasons, Kovalchuk being the only one having started his career in the current millenium.

Youngest player to 600 points

Gretzky: age 22 or younger

Lemieux, Hawerchuk: age 23 or younger

Yzerman, Turgeon, Jagr, Trottier, Savard, Orr, Coffey: age 24 or younger

Francis, Kurri, Goulet, Sakic and Lindros: age 25 or younger

Another 16 players accomplishing this feat at 26 or younger, Kovalchuk being the only one having started his career in the current millenium.

At LW, Ilya's competition is made of the usual suspects: Robitaille, Goulet, Muller, Bellows, Propp.

Finally, looking at goalscoring and taking 320 (Ilya's current total) as the reference mark:

- only 11 players have scored 320 goals at age 26 or younger: Gretzky, Lemieux, Hawerchuk, Yzerman, Jagr, Kurri, Goulet, Robitaille, Bossy, LaFontaine and Kovalchuk.

- only 16 players have scored 320 goals over their first 8 seasons: Gretzky, Bossy, Brett Hull, Lemieux, Hawerchuk, Yzerman, Jagr, Kurri, Goulet, Robitaille, Lafleur, Selanne, Anderson, Rick Martin, Dionne, Gartner and Kovalchuk.

Of course, the Malkin, Ovechkin and Crosby of this world are soon going to make their entrance in these prestigious lists but for now, let's just show our appreciation to Kovy.

Holy Cow, what a win!

2009-11-28T03:13:51Z

We just beat the Canes 6-4. We were down 4-1 after 2 periods. I didn't see a gamethread, so I thought I'd make a post stating how amazing it was to watch the Thrash battle back in the 3rd. I mean, it was incredible. We looked bad the first two, and looked incredible in the 3rd. Granted, the Canes are not a great team, however, 5 goals in the 3rd is better than ever.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

OFFICIAL WELCOME TO ATLANTA Thread

2009-11-19T20:54:58Z

Okay guys, here's the deal: I have created a Google map (or if you prefer: http://bit.ly/hockeydiversions) of some things to do, sights to see, places to eat, etc. for out-of-town hockey fans to enjoy while they're here for a game. Give me your suggestions in the comments. Tell me where they should go, what kind of place it is (food, coffee, nighclub, bar, etc), and a one or two sentence blurb about the place. I'll add it to the map, and we can send links to folks that ask.

11/5 vs Columbus Pictures

2009-11-06T18:37:44Z

via 3.bp.blogspot.com

My best pictures from last night's game against the Columbus Blue Jackets can be found here:

http://shotfromthesky.blogspot.com/2009/11/thrashers-11509.html

There would be way more, including Kane trashing a couple BJs, Enstrom with some nifty hands, and Hainsey breaking his stick but I was shooting through that nasty, scuffed up crap they call glass - which rendered half the shots useless. Glad these turned out though.

Enjoy!

PS I will be at the game on Sunday as well so let me know if you want pictures of a specific player.

Thrashers Pictures

2009-11-03T17:44:01Z

Hello all.

Since SBNation is picky about which pictures they'll let you upload, I just went ahead and posted these pics to my blog that I thought the Thrashers fan community would enjoy. Featured are Johan Hedberg, Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian and of course, Ilya Kovalchuk. All but the Bogosian shot were taken during warm-ups, but that doesn't make them crappier shots, does it?

http://shotfromthesky.blogspot.com/2009/11/thrashers.html <---Full size images here.

via 2.bp.blogspot.com

More to come as the season progresses.

Go Thrashers!

What do we do with our goalies?

2009-10-21T18:59:37Z

I mean, seriously. Last night was one of THE BEST games I've EVER seen from a Thrashers goalie. Ondrej almost literally stood on his head.

But when Kari comes back from his injuries, are we going to deal him? Deal Ondrej? Deal Moose? What CAN we do? I know there's a couple of teams (Toronto) out there looking for goalies. My guess is Kari's the one that's jettisoned, for the reasons that him and Ondrej are both #1s, and Pavelec's the goalie of the future, it seems. And with last night's performance hopefully being a harbinger of things to come with him, I would like to see us try and get some pieces or something that can help for Kari. We'll keep Moose because he's a great backup goalie, plain and simple.

Thoughts? I'm assuming an article on something like this is coming soon, but I figured I'd ask the question now anyways.

The Fins are coming!

2009-10-21T05:49:15Z

Hi Bird Watchers,

As you no doubt know, the San Jose Sharks will be visiting the Philips Arena this Saturday to play the Atlanta Thrashers. Hitchhiking with the team, however, will be Lurker Shark, David Valentine, Southern Belle, and yours truly, Conico (aka Mr. K.), from Fear the Fin, SBN's San Jose Sharks blog. David and Belle are coming from South Carolina, while Lurker and I are flying out directly from the Bay Area.

We're not expecting a welcome mat or a red carpet (we'll settle for beer poured on our heads), but we wanted to let you know that we're coming your way, and if you have any advice (aka "local know-how"), we'd be in your debt. Places to eat? Things to look for at the arena? On the ice? In Downtown Atlanta?

If / when you come out our way we'd be happy to return the favor. Cheers!

First Thrashers Game!

2009-10-04T03:28:14Z

I spent my evening at Philips Arena tonight and it appears I couldn't have picked a better time to enter Blueland! What a game.. Since this was my first game, I was on the outside looking in on a few instances tonight and to help alleviate my ignorance, can some of you vets help me out?

1) During the anthem, what's the history behind shouting "NIGHT"? Something about the Atlanta Knights I assume? If so, isn't that a slight against the Thrashers? Why go to a Thrasher game and shout for a team that's long gone?

2) I heard the fans behind the TB goal chanting some kind of rehearsed group heckle that ended in "YOU SUCK!" but I couldn't make out anything preceding it.

3) On that "Unleash the Fury" video, what is that clip they play after Tom Green screams Unleash the Fury? Everybody was cheering so loud, I couldn't make that out either.