Dear Thrashers Bloggers: Please Stop
by timmyf on Jul 22, 2010 3:26 PM EDT
in Opinion
42 comments
Can we all agree to stop predicting how many goals the Thrashers will score this year? Even our very own Mr. The Falconer did it awhile back, and while he at least attempted to adjust the numbers (by using ice time rates and redistributing time). I'll give him credit for also admitting that his projection would be wrong, but if we know something will be wrong, why spend the time writing a blog?
I know this comes from a good place. After the loss of superstar winger Ilya Kovalchuk, the Thrashers' goal production dropped somewhat dramatically, from 2.95G/game with Kovalchuk to 2.52G/game without him. That's a substantial drop. Now, the goals against also dropped (from 3.13GA/game to 2.89GA/game), so that helped soften the blow, but the team still took a substantial hit.
Elite players make your team better. Duh.
Here's the problem: we were running what was supposed to be a high-powered offense without our highest-powered offensive player. The other guys we expected to be impact offensive players weren't helping much: Slava Kozlov was scratched most nights and Maxim Afinogenov scored just 6 goals in the 27 post-Kovalchuk games to end the season. (That's an 82-game pace of 18 goals.) For comparison, during this stretch Bryan Little had 5, Nik Antropov had 11, and Niclas Bergfors had 8.
The big problem I have with all these posts - and the one I linked above is certainly not the only one - is that they consist of nothing but pointless conjecture. You do not predict goals like this:
- Take last year's numbers
- Increase the numbers for a couple players you like
- Write a blog about it
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Most of the content on the internet, let alone what comes out during the NHL offseason, is ‘pointless conjecture.’ I say… let them blog!
I actually had a post on the Official Message Boards addressing a similar topic, but I was only counting the top-7 forwards goal totals and comparing them to the Stanley Cup Champions and Eastern Conference finalists.
I enjoy the ranting spirit of your post—though in reality I don’t give a rat’s keister about weather folks blog predictions. I don’t make a habit of consuming content I don’t value so really it’s a no harm, no fowl kind of issue.
A blogger blogging about other bloggers blogging too much over things they don't fully grasp...
Interesting rant. I suggest you simply skip articles you don’t care about and plunge yourself in the legalese of Kovalchuk’s contract.
Falconer already showed multiple times that goal differential has the strongest correlation with win %. We had a worse goal differential w/o Kovy than with despite the same winning rate. So we should definitely not put too much faith into extrapolation of last year’s numbers… What we can say looking at the rosters is that it’s gonna take career years from many guys to reach a decent goal total. Sure most of them are young but we know our ceiling is not high-powered offense. Whether our defense is good enough to cut GAA significantly is in the hands of our goalies and our coaching staff, defensive squad being relatively even compared to last year…
A blogger blogging about other bloggers blogging too much over things they don’t fully grasp…
I recognize the irony here.
Falconer already showed multiple times that goal differential has the strongest correlation with win %.
It’s useful to remind folks of this. Also, we do experience growth in readers, so it’s best not to assume everybody knows this.
I guess my big problem is that nobody’s bothering to analyze goals against. It’s just as important – if not more important – than goals scored.
A blogger blogging about other bloggers blogging too much over things they don’t fully grasp…
I recognize the irony here.
Doubtful. You blasted me for making a statement out of conjecture about Afinogenov’s contract value and then made a similar statement yourself that was pure conjecture about the length of contract Max wanted. So no, I am not sure at all that you do see the irony here.
I suppose to carry your argument to its full extreme, one could say that ALL statistical analysis is useless because no future NHL events can really and truly be predicted on past NHL events. For example, just because a roulette wheel hasn’t hit number 33 in the last 100 spins, that doesn’t mean that 33 is due to hit on the next spin.
I think you’re taking all this stuff just a little too personally because you don’t like the negative thoughts about the Thrashers since you agree with what Dudley has done and you perceive negative thoughts about the team as an attack on you. Many fans are the same way.
Nothing personal, but you don't know me very well
I don’t take any of this personally, I’m just trying to make a point: the current “OH MY GOD THE THRASHERS WILL NEVER SCORE!!!1” freakout is pointless. There’s no need for bloggers to feed it and make it worse.
Regarding Max, we were both speculating, but on two very different things. You were speculating that we didn’t give him a contract of a particular value, $1M I think? I was speculating that we weren’t giving him a long enough term.
The difference? You pulled a number from thin air (which seemed too low, whatever it was) and I guessed that an inconsistent player in his 30s wanted a longer deal than the team of young up-and-comers wanted to give him.
Yes, all statistics carry some degree of error, it’s just an extra step of figuring out of much. In this case, I think there has been too much change to make the speculation worthwhile.
But mostly, I saw yet another blog on the topic, thought “God, more of this?” and took to my soapbox in case anybody else feels the same way. And some folks do!
Others have suggested to me, if you don’t like it, don’t read it… But I disagree: read it and share your opinion.
And for hopefully the last time: I’ve never felt anybody on this blog has attacked me unfairly. Ever. (That does not hold up for other venues…) I don’t take it personally and hope I’ve been fair to everybody else as well. I was hoping that including Falconer in this would tip people off that I’m not entirely serious, but it sounds like I might be wrong.
by timmyf on Jul 22, 2010 7:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I just think you should have come up with a different view
You’re upset and you disagree with all these bloggers shooting down the Thrashers offense next year. Fine. You either ignore them, argue against their point or argue that their point has no value. You choose the last option but unfortunately, for it to be true, you would have to predict that our GAA will go significantly down. Which is according to you, at least as silly as predicting offensive output. I think the concern about goal-scoring potential on this team is genuine, and like it or not, since Dany’s and Ilya’s sophomore season, this is the first time we’ll go into the season not knowing where the goals are gonna come from. This might not be a bad thing in the end on the ice, but I can see this concern as legitimate from many fans, looking at the current roster. I don’t think you can toss it aside that easily…
That being said, I’m relatively optimistic about the offense, I think we’ll be able to spread the wealth and have at least a good finisher on each of the first 3 lines. I’m also pretty confident about Mason-Pavelec, with Mason being a solid upgrade over Moose (even if Moose played real well last year) and PAvelec hopefully maturing. But that defense… Boy I hope Ramsay and Torchetti have some strong gameplans ready because we’re gonna need good strategy and teamwork to stop the Caps or the Lightning…
by FrenchKheldar on Jul 22, 2010 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
This is the kind of conversation I was hoping for...
First, I was actually arguing both “against their point” (to a limited extent) and that “their point has no value.” Yes, that’s sort of silly. It’s like somebody accuses you of stealing their horse and you say:
1) I didn’t steal your horse
2) Your horse is stupid anyway
I do think our GF will drop, though I think it’s less than most people are suggesting. I also think our GA will drop and provided the numbers with/without Kovalchuk to plan the seed of why. But you hit on the more important point: the addition of Chris Mason.
A lot of people were asking “if this is the best blueline we’ve ever had, why are we still giving up so many goals?” last year. A lot of folks blamed the coaches (which is probably true) or the forwards (which I claimed on a few occasions, though this is really tied with the systems) or the goalies. And, in reality, it’s likely a bit of all of these things.
Well, good news: we’ve got a new head coach who is widely regarded as a guy who brings down the GAA, we’ve eliminated most of our forwards who play poor defense (Kozlov, Afinogenov, Kovalchuk), and we got a new goaltender who can put up some very solid numbers.
Here’s where I differentiate myself from the folks who I’ve been criticizing: I think our goals against will go down BUT I am not going to attempt to put a number on it. Whatever number I come up with would be a fabrication and wouldn’t make my case for why GAA will drop any stronger.
That’s it. All I’m asking is that folks only use statistics and numbers when they mean something.
Typos abound. Sorry. That 2nd paragraph should be...
I do think our GF will drop, though I think it’s less than most people are suggesting. I also think our GA will drop and I provided the numbers with/without Kovalchuk to plant the seed of why. But you hit on the more important point: the addition of Chris Mason.
Yes! Thank You Very Much!!
My most confident prediction for the upcoming is year is that HOW the Thrashers score goals is going to be very different from last year. Ergo – all talk of actual numbers is likely pointless.
I think you should be happy that anyone is blogging/talking about/paying attention to/making fun of the thrashers.
by Thomas Magnum277 on Jul 22, 2010 4:14 PM EDT reply actions
But it’s only Thrashers bloggers. If this were, say, ESPN doing the same thing, fine. It’s something.
Don't worry, be happy!
I believe all anxiety about Thrashers scoring (or potential lack there of) will quickly subside with the signing of free agent or addition of scorer via trade. However, I’ve said it before—and I really want to say it again so when I’m right, I say “ne ner ne ner ne ner!” Bergfors is going to be a HUGE STAR in this league. He fast, good hockey mind, great hands and defensively responsible. I see him popping in around 35+G this year. I think Little and Antropove will get into the low 30s too.
I would still like to see some insurance via UFAs Frolov, Stepniak, Ponikarovsky or Wheeler, Spezza via trade. But Max can go—he’s not worth it.
Dang...How about one more?
I was going to post about scoring predictions/projections until I saw this post on the main page.
Here’s a summary of my post: A goal scored = a goal scored. Thus, if Ladd scores 35 goals next season; he’ll score 35 goals next season. If the right side of the equation drops, then so does the left side. Pretty heady stuff.
Using last year’s stats Ladd scored 17 goals. If he scores 17 goals this year, he’ll have 17 goals. If not, he’ll have a different number of goals.
Go for it.
But friends, if you have the time to write, here’s an idea: start talking about camp and line combos. And whether we should bid on Kovalchuk… ;-)
by timmyf on Jul 22, 2010 5:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It was meant as a joke...
That obviously failed ;-)
I really don’t care about all this stuff (and my hockey knowledge is relatively limited). I am just excited for the next season.
I like the moves that the Thrashers have made. We have one of the best combos at goalie, our top six defensemen are solid (even without Kubina), we have loads of young talent: Bogo, Bergors, Little, Kane, Ladd, Buff, etc. (not including some solid prospects), and we are, if anything else, tougher. Love it.
Where will the goals come from? Not too concerned about that right now. They’ll come. From somewhere. If not, the Thrashers have the space to make a trade mid-season for a scorer. Love it.
Oh, I got the joke. I lol’d. That’s why I brought Kovalchuk up… Continuing the joke.
by timmyf on Jul 22, 2010 7:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
As for Kovy...
What a mess that has become…
The Thrashers are looking like they made out like bandits regarding the Kovy trade/non-signing. Yes, he’s more talented offensively than any current Thrasher. But, is he worth what we were going to pay him a year? Now, it’s apparent, that he really only cares about money.
This is making the Thrashers look like the good guys now, especially in Atlanta. People could care less that we let this greedy player walk. Plus, we turned, in some capacity, Kovy into Oduya, Bergfors, Cormier, Eager, Sopel and Buff…Kovy is not better than all of them combined (yes…I am over simplifying, but oh well).
All that said, if he wants to come to the Thrashers for one year at around $5 mil, sign him up!
He doesn’t, he is with the Devils, just a matter of someone bowing to pressure and restructuring or an arbiter making a decision on his contract.
Also, is it really greedy for a UFA to command as much for their services as possible?
Not everyone is as awesome as Saint Hossa after all.
I will say this much...
I am only referring to him as “greedy” for he spurned his original team…a team willing to pay over $100 million…to hit the market only to make what we would’ve paid him (basically). The Devils deal is for 102 million over 17 years (much of which he wouldn’t have been paid unless he played until he was 45). Thus, he left Atlanta for what? So either he hated being in Atlanta or he is greedy, for 101 million over 12 years is not a bad deal. So kinda greedy to me.
Now that he is a UFA; I have no problem with him trying to get the most money. More power to him. If we forget the contract offer the Thrashers made him, and merely look at his off-season, then let him get what he can. He has no real connection with the Devils, Kings, KHL team or whoever. He DID have a connection with Atlanta.
All of that said, I am glad he didn’t accept the contract (see: Atlanta Hawks, Joe Johnson).
Let's just forget this whole blog post happened
Just like that “trade” last night.
1200 words on what bloggers are doing wrong?
That’s dedication. :)
by fatschoonerrat on Jul 22, 2010 10:45 PM EDT reply actions
Was that really 1200 words? Man, ranting is easy, I should do it more often.
Pulling the data for the chart and the few data points took longer than the writing parts.
And to be fair, I like the bloggers I’m criticizing. I just wish they’d let this one thing go.
by timmyf on Jul 22, 2010 11:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, I was including the comments. ;) I just kind of figure BWA should be the shining light of Thrashers blogs. Looking forward to some more real news.
BTW, how about Marty ending up in FLA?
by fatschoonerrat on Jul 22, 2010 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sad about Marty ending up in FLA
I wish he was never a part of that deal to CHI, and for that matter Morin either. But I guess you have to give up something to get something….
I know I wrote something earlier this month to what timmyf is alluding to today, and although it started off for me as a post about how I was worried about how many goals we would score this year, when I looked at the goals for/goals against differential, and goals allowed, I found that those two statistics had a much better correlation on making the playoffs than simply goals scored. I guess I forgot to change the title for my post, because I started writing, and realized what I intended to write on ended up being completely different from what I actually ended up talking about, and just never returned to edit the title……. Regardless of that fact, I’m still concerned about our ability to prevent goals. Like I talked about in my previous post, our goals allowed may go down, but I believe that over the course of 82 games, outscoring your opposition in total goals allowed over total goals against will also get you into the playoffs, and be a much more likely attainable goal for us than being in the top 10 in fewest goals allowed. Atlanta has been one of the worst teams statistically in goals allowed over the course of our existence in the NHL. Even if we cut our goals allowed down to the league average, I feel like we should take the 08-09 Washington Capitals approach, and add another top 6 type forward and roll 3 scoring lines to boost our goals scored to make sure that we can still score more than we give up.
I don’t want to put specific #’s on what I think our lineup can score, or how many goals I expect from Bergfors or Little…. I just think that the more we can responsibly score, the better off we will be…. as obvious as that sounds
You’re absolutely correct. And it’s not all as obvious as it sounds.
by timmyf on Jul 23, 2010 8:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
it's a little frustrating. . .
when the blogs you follow don’t post anything new for days on end. Obviously, there’s not a whole lot going on now after the draft and well into free agency, so I understand it’s difficult to post about meaty topics (although one about prospect camp would still be nice. Maybe just post what you have Timmy?) A purely conjecturing post is much better than no post at all, because at least it starts discussions. A purely complaining post is also better than nothing, timmy. Look how many discussions came from it.
With that said, don’t we already know who’s going to score on this team?
Kane had 14 ES goals last season, with no pp time, and missed about 10 games or so to injury. Regardless of last year’s stats, going from no pp time, to a top pp unit is of course going to immensely increase goal/pt totals for any player.
The other candidates are of course bergfors, antropov, Bogosian, Little (just as you can’t say he wouldve scored 30 goals last season based on 2008-2009, you cant say he he’ll score as few goals as he did last year. There’s really no place for him to go but up), and hopefully a free agent winger (stemps, frolov, etc.).
I think we have numerous scoring threats on this team. It’s mostly just an issue of consistency and line chemistry. Even after kovy left, scoring wasnt really an issue for the team, but rather we lost games due to poor defense and lackluster beginnings to games. As most of the time, i am positive that this team will be pretty good or at the least, very entertaining to watch.
by dennylambert!! on Jul 23, 2010 12:43 PM EDT reply actions
I've only done rankings
I missed a lot of camp due to a business trip, so I wasn’t about to write a whole bunch on a limited look at the guys. I only caught a few sessions of drills and the first scrimmage.
If you guys want, I can post my prospect rankings before the full list is finished. It’ll give you a chance to tear me apart before Falconer and hildy get theirs in…
My class is over!
I’ll probably have mine in tonight some time.
Thrashing the Blues
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Apparently.
I’m looking at goalie stats right now, but I gotta admit, I’m kind of living in fear too.
Thrashing the Blues
SB Nation Atlanta - home of the Fairest and Weatheriest fans on the net.
Reporter: There`s a "stamp out the Beatles movement" underway in Detroit. What are you going to do about it?
Paul McCartney: We`re going to start a campaign to stamp out Detroit.
Bergfors could step up
I´m from Sweden and I´m sure that Bergfors will step up this season.
This kid is amazing, I´ve seen him play all through out the juniors in SSK and the progression in Devils is really impressive. According to himself, he feels comfortable in Atlanta and that should lead him into scoring, a lot. Don´t be surprised if he scores 35+ goals upcoming season.
Toni Lappalainen Samuelsson
by Toni Lappalainen Samuelsson on Jul 23, 2010 1:11 PM EDT reply actions
We're hearing this a lot
And I believe it. I’m not sure about 35+ this season, but 25-30 would not surprise me.
I could settle for 25-30 goals in the regular season
Toni Lappalainen Samuelsson
by Toni Lappalainen Samuelsson on Jul 25, 2010 12:35 PM EDT reply actions
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| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
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Washington
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82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
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Atlanta
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82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
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Carolina
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82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
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(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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Next 5 Games
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Columbus
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Sat 09/25 | 7:00 PM EDT |
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Nashville
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Mon 09/27 | 8:00 PM EDT |
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Nashville
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Wed 09/29 | 7:00 PM EDT |
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Fri 10/01 | 1:30 PM EDT |
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Pittsburgh
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Fri 04/09 | L 2 - 5 |
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Tue 04/06 | L 0 - 3 |
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Sat 04/03 | OT - L 3 - 4 |
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Washington
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Thu 04/01 | L 1 - 2 |
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