A Look at Ladd
First, a few comments about Ladd from Jim Neveau over at Paint it Blackhawks:
The statistical impact of losing Andrew Ladd really won’t be felt too much by the Hawks, but the intangible impact he had on the team is unquestionably his greatest asset as a player. He frequently would park himself in front of the goal, creating screens and traffic better than just about anyone else on the team. He also had the ability to play a physical brand of hockey when the time called for it, and his two Stanley Cup rings are a testament to his ability to perform in big situations.
Those are pretty solid comments. In addition, I've repeatedly heard folks talking about Ladd's line playing against the top opposition every night. It sounds like he's a checking/shutdown line guy with a bit of a scoring touch. To evaluate those claims, I ran some numbers. The chart is below the jump.
These stats are for Chicago's 2009-2010 regular season for forwards who played at least 50 games. This turns out to be 12 forwards. Perfect. I've color-coded the ranks: ranks of 1-3 are green (top line performance), 4-6 are yellow (second line performance), 7-12 are red (bottom six performance).
| Metric | Value | Rank |
| Goals/60 | 0.97 | 3rd |
| Points/60 | 2.11 | 5th |
| GFON/60 | 3.09 | 5th |
| GAON/60 | 2.91 | 12th |
| BTN Rating | -0.37 | 8th |
| QUALCOMP | 0.019 | 8th |
| QUALTEAM | -0.062 | 7th |
| Corsi ON | 13.83 | 6th |
| Corsi REL | -0.2 | 6th |
| ZoneStart OPCT | 56.2% | 7th |
To me, the things I'm hearing about Ladd and the statistics I'm seeing are not meshing. Ladd seems to be a very capable goal scorer at even-strength. His 17 goals look relatively low, but he received just 50 minutes of power-play ice time all season, scoring no goals. If you look at even-strength goals only, Ladd's 17 are just a touch shy of Kane's 21 and Sharp's 19. He tied Marian Hossa. (Hossa did play considerably less games, but Ladd also had much less ice time per game than any of those guys. Taking ice time into account, Ladd is 3rd, as reflected in the chart above.)
Again: Ladd scored at a rate comparable to guys like Sharp and Hossa at even-strength. In this respect, he reminds me of the Colby Armstrong of 2008-2009 whose 19 ESGs were near the best on the team.
Ladd's point totals don't look too shabby either: metrics for total offense when he's on the ice show him to be a solid 2nd-liner. On a team which includes Kane, Toews, Sharp, and Hossa.
His defensive numbers look more questionable. Rick Dudley spoke of Ladd as though he's a top shutdown guy, but the numbers just don't bear it out. While his Corsi stats are pretty good, the opposition scored goals at a higher rate when Ladd was on the ice than any other forward. That's not good. That's reflected in his plus-minus.
The usual explanation for something like that is that Ladd, being a shutdown guy, was always playing against the top guys from other teams. According to Behind the Net's stats, he just wasn't. He played against basically average competition with basically average linemates.
This isn't to say that I'm unhappy about our acquisition of Ladd: I think he's a solid player who will continue to get better over the next couple years. I just expect him to flourish offensively on our team rather than defensively: he may be a "two-way" player, but he seems to be stronger in the offensive zone than the defensive.
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Like the way those offensive numbers look. I find the fact Ladd has never been a negative player a huge plus, yes it is a flawed stat but I still view it as a plus.
another solid
team guy if nothing else the thrashers will have a good character based team and imo thats a good place to start
I agree. Last night I watched clips of his last 30 or so goals. He’s got good hands and lines up his shot pretty well before shooting. He scored on a lot of wristshots from the slot and a lot of rebounds and deflections from the crease. Like Buff he’s a winger who is very attracted to the net. When someone shot, he would charge to the net looking for a rebound instead of sitting back and watching. With these skills, I wonder if he’ll get on our PP.
by ThrashersRecaps on Jul 2, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
I expect him on our PP, though probably not the top unit. It depends on whether Ramsay wants to run a 3/2 or 4/1 PP.
by timmyf on Jul 2, 2010 12:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
who knows maybe he will be the replacement for the bad trade of Kovalchuck
...in dixie land i'll take my stand to root for Atlanta
kovi is still unsigned
just curious if that 10 year 100mil offer was still on the table and it was up to the fans if you wanted him back, what would the answer b??
is he a distraction and selfish or is that stuff overblown????
Since the face been revealed the game got real
I can't speak for everybody...
…but I think the consensus is that we don’t want him back. I certainly don’t want him back at 10-years 100-million.
I’d do 10-years averaging 7.5 or 12 averaging 6.5. He’s really not worth more than that.
I don’t think Kovalchuk is selfish. He may be a distraction: a lot of guys look at their job as “get the puck to Kovalchuk” which can lead to some back hockey. I don’t think that’s Kovy’s fault… he’s just an elite talent.
Not a bad comparison.
Ladd has got great hands – as was mentioned above. Witness his goal in game six v Philly, when he executed a mean deflection on Hammer’s shot from the point that gave the Hawks the one goal lead they would hold until the final minutes of regulation. The puck just seems to find him when he’s on – the mark of a great positional player. Of all the players the Hawks had to give up, he was the one that stung the most for the more intelligent fan. Guy never takes a shift off. Great locker room presence.
I’m looking forward to seeing Atlanta make some noise in the division – particularly against the Caps.
"It's the Chicago Blackhawks, man." - Jeremy Roenick
by The Fearless Freep on Jul 2, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
"Particularly against the Caps"
I wonder how much of these two trades with Chicago is Dudley working with what he knows having seen these guys first hand in Chicago vs. playing the copycat game of trying to mimic the Stanley Cup champs vs. loading up on grit to take down the beast in our own division? My guess is that it’s a combination of all three, but should be interesting to see if a fast hard-checking team can put a dent in the Caps high powered attack. Is Dudley simply looking to make the Thrashers better or is this also an attempt to put together a group that can knock the Caps off their game?
Montreal took them down with phenomenal goal tending. Would loved to have seen a Caps/Flyers series this playoff season to see how the Caps handled Pronger, Hartnell, Carcillo, Timmonen, and the rest of the gritty Flyers.
Ladd is good, but he isn’t a real comparison to Raymond.
Raymond is a scorer that kills penalties and has tremendous speed. Faster than most of the league.
Ladd is more the team guy that hits more than Raymond, and can play enough to score.
But to compare his hands to Raymonds is a little silly.
Raymond has a hard an accurate wrister that beats guys high. Ladd has a good shot…but his hands are no where near as good as Raymond.
Raymond is more of a playmaker than Ladd too.
Peace
I’m guessing the way the Flyers played during the playoffs, they would have been successful against Washington. Not saying they would have won – too many variables. But the Caps played selfish hockey in the playoffs – game 7 was a perfect illustration of that. How many times did we see Ovechkin try winning the game by himself? Semin was invisible. Green had to play defense and that was a catastrophe for him. The only thing that might have been problematic is Philly’s speed (or lack thereof) throughout their lineup, and that I think was the difference against Chicago. Pronger could do the job for a few games, but playing 30+ minutes/game really gassed him later.
Dudley, as you said, knows these guys well, and speed and defense seems to be the way to win now. Take advantage of turnovers from an aggressive forecheck, and work the transition game. It will take time but I’m really intrigued by the moves Atlanta made.
"It's the Chicago Blackhawks, man." - Jeremy Roenick
by The Fearless Freep on Jul 2, 2010 4:42 PM EDT reply actions
Here's the scale for the 2010 RFA group.
http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2009/09/11/compensation-for-signing-a-nhl-restricted-free-agent/
I mentioned in another post that I think RD paid too much for Ladd. Here’s the line that is important:
$1,545,981 to $3,091,963: A second round draft choice.
I know Ladd went to arbitration and DW has a reputation for being able to negotiate his way out of arbitration, but I’m not sure that Ladd will garner more than $3.0M in arbitration. However, if he was given an offer sheet for 3.0M it still would have cost a second rounder and save this team another bargaining chip with a top offensive D (Vish) that could be moved or packaged for something else.
I know that there is a lot of enthusiasm for all these changes, but dumb overpayments have been a hallmark of this organization for quite some time. If they aren’t going to stop giving away assets, I can’t see where this team is going to complete any kind of turnaround. Little things like this add up over time and it’s frustrating to see DW and RD not make the best of the meager assets and tools they do have.
Offer sheets
For whatever reason the offer sheet is taboo in league circles. The last one I can recall being offered caused a ton of bad blood between Edmonton and Anaheim. I think it’s worth Dudley’s while to throw in an asset from a glutted organizational position to keep the lines of communication open with Chicago. He has a lot of clout over there in the form of relationships and talent knowledge. No need to play hard ball and lose that.
Let’s say we tried an offer sheet. Here’s a few things that would have had to happen:
1) He would actually have to SIGN THE SHEET. People forget how important this step is.
2) For #1 to happen, we’d have to offer OVER FAIR MARKET VALUE. Why else would he leave the Stanley Cup Champions? My guess is that FMV for Ladd is in the high-2M range, so we probably would have had to go over $3.091M or…
3) Chicago could/would have matched. If FMV is 2.7 and we offered 3.0, why wouldn’t they match? Especially if they thought they could get more than a 2nd via trade…
4) …which makes sense, because Ladd is worth more than a 2nd round pick. And like 0vermars said,
5) Rick Dudley would have pissed off a lot of people, especially since Bowman would have come out and said, “Look, we would have gladly traded him away. I would have worked with Rick, and we have a long history together, I just don’t understand why he felt he needed to go this route.”
An offer sheet would have been a terrible idea. TERRIBLE.
Side note...
You can’t trade an RFA for one year after you’ve matched an offer sheet. Just in case you were curious.
Why wouldn’t he sign an OS that doubles his pay? It’s not like this team sucks ass and is standing pat. There have been a lot of positive changes over the last 4 months.
The problem with your scenario # 3 is that Chicago can’t match a 3M OS. They still have to pay Niemi and a bunch of other guys. They are out of money. They have 9 forwards and 4 Defensmen under contract and about 3M of cap space.
I think that when it’s all said and done, Ladd comes in under 3.1M/Yr.
Lowe pissed off Burke because he was being a giant ass, has always been a giant ass and always will be a giant ass. Yet, he still manages to be able to trade his players and sign FAs. Cuddling up with other GMs is overrated. DW is everyone’s BFF and this team has been a shambles for how long?
And for the record...
It was the genius tandem of Tallon and RD who hamstrung Chicago and put them in cap hell.
Okay, a few things: my guess is that Ladd wouldn’t have signed with us for $3.1M if Chicago was willing to pay him $2.5M. Maybe $2.75M. Since they will almost certain send Huet to the minors, they could have signed him for that.
He wouldn’t get double the money with us because he earned a raise with Chicago. The difference would have been $500k or so. (Guessing here with the assumption we stay below the 1st+3rd compensation territory.)
“It’s not like this team sucks ass and is standing pat. … this team has been a shambles for how long?”
Are you arguing with yourself now? ;-)
by timmyf on Jul 6, 2010 7:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I never saw any reports anywhere that Ladd was offered 2.5M by Chicago. His salary last season was 1.5M. If RD were to offer him 3.0M that would double his salary.
He’s an RFA. Regardless of who the GM is, they only need to qualify him to keep his rights. Ladd was qualified at 1.6M There’s no “Earning a raise” beyond that. Even so, why not make the offer and see if he signs?
You take my quotes out of context. The first part is about how this team is working to improve itself with on ice product, the second refers to the over state of the team over the last 10 years. Drafting, player development, FA retention and the ability to attract talent has been pretty bad (at best). It ’s improving, but the history is still there.
We’ll see how much Ladd signs for in a few weeks.
My 2.5 million isn’t entirely made up. Around the time of the trade, I read something stating Ladd was expected to make $3M, either through an increased offer or arbitration.
Yes, $3M would double his salary. But he’d be getting that one way or another.
Offer sheets work much better in theory than reality, that’s all I’m trying to say here. And in the VERY BEST CASE, all we save is Vishnevskiy. An it’s a very unlikely best case.
We’ll have plenty to criticize Dudley about, but you’re jumping the gun on this trade.
by timmyf on Jul 7, 2010 8:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions























