Playoff Teams Vs Playoff Teams: Detailed Stats for East Teams

Yesterday, I posted the Winning % (excluding SOW and OTL points) in games between playoff teams. Today I have more detailed stats for games involving playoff opponents. There are two tables below. The first table looks at summary metrics such as Goals (For, Against, Differential) and Shots (For, Against, Differential). The second table looks at team percentages (Power Play %, Penalty Kill %, Save %, Shot %) when facing other playoff teams. (West data here)

Observations:

  • The Capitals outscored both playoff and non-playoff teams by a healthy margin, but their shot advantage was greatly reduced against non-playoff clubs.
  • The Sabres offense torched non-playoff teams to the tune of 3.41 GFA but fell by a full goal to just 2.42 against playoff clubs--but their GAA showed no change.
  • The Penguins numbers are also quite stark but in their case both their offense and defense regressed badly against playoff teams.
  • The bottom seeded teams in the East were all outscored by playoff opponents except for Ottawa. The Senators managed a higher GFA against better clubs, but in their case that is a product of a higher team Shot %--their shot differential was significantly worse, they just converted their shots at a higher rate.
Team Opponent GP GFA GAA G Diff SF SA S Diff
WSH Vs Playoff 38 3.68 2.82 0.86 31.1 30.9 0.20
WSH vs Non 44 4.05 2.86 1.19 34.3 30.9 3.40
NJD Vs Playoff 42 2.50 2.29 0.21 28.9 27.8 1.10
NJD vs Non 40 2.93 2.40 0.53 31.1 26.2 4.90
BUF Vs Playoff 45 2.42
2.53 -0.11 31.1 31.1 0.00
BUF vs Non 37 3.41 2.51 0.90 32.1 31.7 0.40
PIT Vs Playoff 42 2.79 3.20 -0.41 31.4 28.9 2.50
PIT vs Non 40 3.50 2.53 0.97 34.3 28.5 5.80
OTT Vs Playoff 43 2.91 2.95 -0.04 28.6 29.0 -0.40
OTT vs Non 39 2.56 2.85 -0.29 31.0 28.1 2.90
BOS Vs Playoff 44 2.18 2.64 -0.46 30.9 30.8 0.10
BOS vs Non 38 2.89 2.21 0.68 32.6 28.7 3.90
PHI Vs Playoff 43 2.91 2.95 -0.04 28.6 29.0 -0.40
PHI vs Non 39 2.56 2.85 -0.29 31.0 28.1 2.90
MTL Vs Playoff 43 2.28 2.74 -0.46 26.2 32.4 -6.20
MTL vs Non 39 3.05 2.69 0.36 31.2 31.8 -0.60
NYR Vs Playoff 48 2.31 2.92 -0.61 28.3 31.7 -3.40
NYR vs Non 34 3.26 2.29 0.97 31.4 27.3 4.10
ATL Vs Playoff 42 2.83 3.26 -0.43 29.0 33.8 -4.80
ATL vs Non 39 2.92 3.00 -0.08 30.0 32.4 -2.40
CAR Vs Playoff 43 2.63 3.33 -0.70 29.4 32.3 -2.90
CAR vs Non 39 3.00 2.90 0.10 29.2 30.4 -1.20
TBL Vs Playoff 44 2.32 3.27 -0.95 27.5 32.2 -4.70
TBL vs Non 38 3.03 3.05 -0.02 30.5 30.5 0.00
NYI Vs Playoff 47 2.72 3.26 -0.54 30.3 32.3 -2.00
NYI vs Non 35 2.69 3.17 -0.48 30.5 31.5 -1.00
FLA Vs Playoff 45 2.42 3.24 -0.82 28.0 35.5 -7.50
FLA vs Non 37 2.68 2.65 0.03 28.9 32.5 -3.60
TOR Vs Playoff 49 2.61 3.10 -0.49 31.6 29.8 1.80
TOR vs Non 33 2.61 3.48 -0.87 34.0 29.7 4.30

 

Observations for Table 2:

In general most teams don't show much difference in their team Shot % or team Save % when you split the data out. However, we are more likely to see gaps in PP% and PK%.

  • The Devils had some big splits, their PP was lousy against better teams, but their PK was outstanding.
  • Buffalo and Pittsburgh both had anemic PP performance against other playoff teams.
  • The Penguins had subpar goaltending against playoff clubs, while OTT had below average SV% against both playoff and non-playoff teams. Could be a high scoring 1st round series between those two teams. 
  • If the Caps have one weakness, their PK unit was below average against playoff teams.

What is this PDO stat? It is a measure of luck. League wide SV% and ST% must add up to 100%. A few star level players show the ability to sustain higher than average SV and ST rates, over the long run, but at the team level only dynasty level teams can maintain a higher than average PDO over the long run of multiple seasons.

Ergo, if a team has a number over 100% suggests that a team has been fortunate, anything under 100% suggests they have been unlucky. When facing other playoff teams Washington and Buffalo had some good luck, while Pittsburgh and Boston did not (Ottawa was rather unlucky versus non-playoff teams).

Team Opponent W% PP% PK% SV% ST% PDO
WSH Vs Playoff 59.2% 24.6% 78.1% 90.9% 11.8% 1.03
WSH vs Non 72.7% 25.7% 79.4% 90.7% 11.8% 1.03
NJD Vs Playoff 57.1% 15.7% 87.5% 91.7% 8.6% 1.00
NJD vs Non 58.8% 21.8% 78.7% 90.8% 9.4% 1.00
BUF Vs Playoff 66.2% 20.6% 85.5% 92.1% 10.6% 1.03
BUF vs Non 47.8% 15.1% 87.8% 91.9% 7.8% 1.00
PIT Vs Playoff 44.0% 13.3% 81.7% 88.9% 8.9% 0.98
PIT vs Non 63.8% 20.8% 86.8% 91.1% 10.2% 1.01
OTT Vs Playoff 54.7% 14.5% 81.2% 89.8% 10.2% 1.00
OTT vs Non 52.6% 19.6% 87.8% 89.9% 8.3% 0.98
BOS Vs Playoff 39.8% 14.3% 84.6% 91.4% 7.1% 0.99
BOS vs Non 55.3% 19.0% 87.8% 92.3% 8.9% 1.01
PHI Vs Playoff 54.7% 14.5% 81.2% 89.8% 10.2% 1.00
PHI vs Non 52.6% 19.6% 87.8% 89.9% 8.3% 0.98
MTL Vs Playoff 40.7% 19.5% 84.2% 91.5% 8.7% 1.00
MTL vs Non 52.6% 24.2% 81.3% 91.5% 9.8% 1.01
NYR Vs Playoff 39.6% 16.2% 82.7% 90.8% 8.2% 0.99
NYR vs Non 57.4% 21.1% 86.8% 91.6% 10.4% 1.02
ATL Vs Playoff 38.1% 16.4% 81.5% 90.4% 9.8% 1.00
ATL vs Non 48.7% 16.7% 82.3% 90.6% 9.7% 1.00
CAR Vs Playoff 43.0% 14.6% 76.2% 89.7% 8.9% 0.99
CAR vs Non 43.6% 19.3% 85.4% 90.5% 10.3% 1.01
TBL Vs Playoff 36.4% 17.0% 79.0% 89.8% 8.4% 0.98
TBL vs Non 51.3% 22.2% 81.3% 90.0% 9.9% 1.00
NYI Vs Playoff 36.2% 17.8% 72.5% 89.9% 9.0% 0.99
NYI vs Non 45.7% 13.5% 81.4% 89.9% 8.8% 0.99
FLA Vs Playoff 35.6% 14.0% 77.3% 90.9% 8.7% 1.00
FLA vs Non 48.6% 14.6% 82.3% 91.9% 9.2% 1.01
TOR Vs Playoff 35.7% 12.9% 75.6% 89.6% 8.3% 0.98
TOR vs Non 37.9% 15.3% 73.5% 88.3% 7.7% 0.96

 

Next up: Western Conference

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