Which Playoff Teams Did Well Against Other Playoff Teams?

The post season is about to kick off. This means several things:

  • No overtime loss points
  • No shootout win points
  • No weak opponents on the schedule

What happens if we delete the SOW and OTL points?

What happens if we only count games where one playoff qualifier faced another playoff qualifier?

To answer these questions I calculated each team's win percentage against both playoff and non-playoff teams in the table below--and I excluded all the OTL and SOW points. The results will surprise some people. Which teams racked up their points against weak teams? Which teams did well when facing other playoff caliber teams?

In the East the Penguins and Sabres both torched the non-playoff teams but had losing records when facing other playoff teams. The Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers both played slightly better when matched up against playoff caliber teams. If these patterns were to hold Ottawa would upset Pittsburgh in the 1st round.

 

Team W% vs Playoff Teams W% vs Out Teams Difference
WSH 59.2% 72.7% 13.5%
NJD 57.1% 58.8% 1.7%
OTT 54.7% 52.6% -2.1%
PHI 54.7% 52.6% -2.1%
BUF 47.5% 66.2% 18.7%
PIT 44.0% 63.8% 19.8%
CAR 43.0% 43.6% 0.6%
MTL 40.7% 52.6% 11.9%
BOS 39.8% 55.3% 15.5%
NYR 39.5% 57.4% 17.9%
ATL 38.1% 48.7% 10.6%
TBL 36.4% 51.3% 14.9%
NYI 36.2% 45.7% 9.5%
TOR 35.7% 37.9% 2.2%
FLA 35.6% 48.6% 13.0%

Out in the West, the Sharks, Avalanche and Predators all savaged the non-playoff teams and had a Win% nearly 20 points lower when facing off against quality opponents. The Red Wings had the reverse pattern posting a much better Win % against playoff teams than non-playoff teams. Vancouver had essentially the same Win % whether both types of opponents. Phoenix had a pretty average split but has the bad fortune to draw Detroit in the 1st round.

 

Team W% vs Playoff Teams W% vs Out Teams Difference
DET 60.5% 50.0% -10.5%
VAN 58.8% 60.7% 1.9%
CHI 58.3% 65.0% 6.7%
SJS 53.5% 70.5% 17.0%
PHX 51.2% 61.0% 9.8%
LAK 50.0% 59.8% 9.8%
CGY 47.8% 66.2% 18.4%
ANA 46.9% 52.9% 6.0%
NSH 45.1% 64.6% 19.5%
DAL 41.7% 54.4% 12.7%
COL 40.8% 60.2% 19.4%
MIN 40.2% 56.9% 16.7%
STL 38.0% 59.8% 21.8%
EDM 34.8% 27.8% -7.0%
CBJ 31.9% 60.0% 28.1%

 

Conclusion

If you enjoyed these numbers check back later. I'll have a post showing the Goal Differential, Shot Differential, PP% and PK% when playoff teams faced off against other playoff teams.

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