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Thrashers Fail Against the Hard Trap Yet Again

I was incredibly disappointed by the Thrashers play on Sunday afternoon. I really had the urge to vent my spleen after that game but Timmyf beat me to that particular punch, so I'll try to be a bit more analytical in this post.

For as long as I can remember the Thrashers have ALWAYS struggled against teams that execute a hard trap in the neutral zone. A very simple explanation of the trap is that the defending team seeks to put all 5 of their skaters between the bluelines in the neutral zone which make it impossible to either skate with the puck or pass the puck in the neutral zone. The goal of the trap is to force the team to either a) play dump and chase style hockey or b) try to force passes that lead to turnovers and odd man rushes for the trapping team.

Because the Thrashers have built their roster around offense and passing the hard trap teams give them fits. If the Thrashers want to become a real playoff contender, then they must learn to make adjustments. If John Anderson wants to show that his uptempo systems work in the NHL, then his team must break the trap. The Thrashers tried to answer the trap by making perfect passes which played right into the hands of Carolina. To beat the trap you have to dump the puck deep and work as hard as they can to regain control in the offensive zone. It takes a LOT of hard work to beat the trap and too often the Thrashers went the lazy route and tried to make perfect passes.

Star-divide

The other thing that nearly made my head explode on Sunday was this: when playing a defensively sound team you must take one-timers on net. Over and over again when the Thrashers got the puck into the offensive zone but the player receiving a pass settled the puck before shooting it. Over and over again, this slight pause allowed the Carolina defense and goaltending to square to the shot and prevent a quality scoring chance. When playing a team that fills the shooting lanes you must shoot quickly! I was extremely disappointed that the team failed to make this adjustment. From upstairs it was bloody obvious that they needed more one timers--this should have been an in-game adjustment. Heck, they might have climbed back into the contest if they had simply started shooting one-times off the pass. EDIT: And I love Tobias Enstrom, but he simply must shoot the puck when he is wide open more often--every shot you pass up is a scoring chance that goes by the wayside.

Lastly the lack of discipline is really starting to hurt this team. The penalty killing has remained rather strong, but the Thrashers penchant for taking penalties keeps them from playing offense and it wears out their defense and goaltending. This season the Thrashers have been shorthanded about 4 times per game. But since the Kovalchuk trade the Thrashers have given the opposition way too many opportunities with the extra man.

  • vs WSH 5 times shorthanded
  • vs FLA 7 times shorthanded
  • vs COL 4 times shorthanded
  • vs MIN 4 times shorthanded
  • vs CHI 6 times shorthanded
  • vs FLA 8 times shorthanded
  • vs NYI 5 times shorthanded
  • vs TBL 4 times shorthanded
  • vs CAR 7 times shorthanded

The team average is 4 Short Handed situations per game, but since the big trade the Thrasher have not played a single game with FEWER than 4 SH situations and they three times they have allowed 7 or 8 extra man advantages to the opposition. On Sunday the Hurricanes played with the extra attackers of 13.5 minutes in a 60 hockey game--and they scored twice which abbreviated two of those PK situations. In the first period the Thrashers were killing for 6 of the first 20 minutes and Carolina gained a 1st period lead late in the period with the extra man.

I’m NOT someone who is a big believer in fate, especially in sports. Players make good or bad plays--it is on them not on fate. Just because the Thrashers were bad in the past doesn’t mean they can’t be better in the future. Problems can by fixed. Give Anderson some credit, he fixed the PK, they studied it and got it working correctly. But the problem for the Thrashers is that they have little TIME to fix these problems. They can’t wait until the off season to figure out how to break the trap. We need more desperation and we need more adjustments on the fly, otherwise the players will be playing golf yet again.

The Thrashers are scheduled to play yet another defensively sound team on Tuesday (Nashville Predators). Can they adjust? Will they exploit the shot opportunities that become available?

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The Perils of Fandom: A Lament

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I really had the urge to vent my spleen after that game but Timmyf beat me to that particular punch, soI’ll try to be a bit more analytical in this post.

Dear Falconer’s Spleen: you’re welcome.

Plus, if one of us is to vent and the other is to analyze, this is clearly the best way to do it. Though I like that your conclusion can best be described as “MOAR ONE-TIEMARZ!!!!1”

by timmyf on Mar 8, 2010 10:22 AM EST reply actions  

My spleen hates me too

Falconer / timmy — both of your post-game posts captured the essence of being a diehard fan. I felt so bad for the casual fans who walked unsuspectingly into that Arena yesterday expecting a good game and a good time. Wow, do we know how to poop on ourselves in front of a big crowd or what?

And Falconer, you analysis is spot on. For anyone who watches a lot of hockey and understands the subtle nuances of the game, you start to realize that teams like ATL makes things remarkably harder on themselves than they need to be. Passing through a trap is suicide and that’s exactly what they did. And not shooting — one-timers aren’t the only kind — on the PP when open and the D is moving makes no sense. We hardly ever see Toby, Kubina or Zach snap off a quick wrister as they are moving the puck from side to side…you need to shoot more at unpredictable instances to get good rebounds.

The thing I really don’t understand is why we reverted back to our old stubborn tricks against teams we should know and understand inside out. It seemed as though the identity of this team was shifting to one of a hustling, grinding, cycle the puck till they drop mentality and it was working against better teams! We don’t have enough skill across the board to play fancy. But where was the grinding and forechecking — even by Max, Pevs etc — we saw against Fla and NY??? Is Kane that integral to our new identity that we simply give up because he’s hurt?

Thanks for letting me rant.

by Smoothinator on Mar 8, 2010 10:42 AM EST reply actions  

we reverted back to our old stubborn tricks against teams we should know and understand inside out

I like this. I like this more:

we reverted back to our old stubborn tricks against teams that know and understand them inside out

I present, without comment, some stats:

Thrashers vs Western Conference: 8-5-2
Thrashers vs Northeast Division: 6-4-5
Thrashers vs Atlantic Division: 7-6-1
Thrashers vs Southeast Division: 7-11-2

If we can’t win games against Florida, Carolina, and Tampa, we won’t make the playoffs.

by timmyf on Mar 8, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

As promised...

Told ya so.

:wink:

No more going to games for me. I’ll watch on TV… if I’m home.

by CuckooForKovalchuk on Mar 8, 2010 10:52 AM EST reply actions  

I had written this game off as soon as Pavel Kubina took a shot directly into the gut of a prone defender a mere 1 or 2 minutes into the game. Seriously, if a guy is laying in front of you 30 ft from the net then the chances of that slapshot hitting the net are nill.

by SilverRubicon on Mar 8, 2010 11:08 AM EST reply actions  

Owned by the SE Div

timmy – I was thinking that as I typed my post and as I just got done updating my spreadsheet of stats and such. Looking at the games left, we pretty much need to go either 11 – 5 – 2 or 10 – 4 – 3 (89 may be enough this year as there are so many common opponents for each of the 6 teams vying for 3 spots). But considering we can’t seem to beat CAR or TB, that will probably come back to haunt us more than anything. Even LAST year we were beating CAR consistently. Tampa not so much till we faced McKenna (Mike McKenna!!) in the final game.

Best case scenario for the last 6 games, as I see it, is a record of 2 – 2 – 2. If that is a good assumpion, then we must go 9 – 3 – 0 or 8 – 3 – 1 in the preceding 12 games. Yikes! Just goes to show how important winning 1 of 2 on the weekend was to this team’s hopes. Now there is no more margin of error and we must beat TOR twice, CAR twice, NYR, Bos and Philly at least once.

by Smoothinator on Mar 8, 2010 11:10 AM EST reply actions  

If the Thrashers want to become a real playoff contender they must learn to make adjustments. If John Anderson wants to show his uptempo systems work in the NHL his team must break the trap.

This has been a problem with the Thrashers for 6-8 years. I wouldn’t say it’s tied to JA but some kind of curse that hangs over the franchise.

by SilverRubicon on Mar 8, 2010 11:11 AM EST reply actions  

Move Toby from the pp point?

you guys think with kovy gone now, maybe toby should be replaced at the point with someone who’s not afraid to shoot? his production has dropped big time since the trade, because our pp has been so bad in large part due to his reluctance to shoot in a wide open lane. Im the biggest toby supporter there is, but hes really bringing the pp down right now and teams probably know by now that hes just going to pass.

by dennylambert!! on Mar 8, 2010 12:34 PM EST reply actions  

PP Woes

Denny – might be a good idea. Hainsey isn’t a much better option, but he does seem to keep the puck moving quicker and doesn’t skate with it as much. He’s more apt to flick a wrister – a weak one though – at the net than Toby. Problem is he has a terribly slow trigger on the slapper. Bogo and Toby seem to have the quickest release, but Toby won’t shoot! Arrrrgggghhhh!

by Smoothinator on Mar 8, 2010 1:26 PM EST reply actions  

kubina actually has a pretty good shot too. but we dont necessarily need someone with a cannon on the point. as gretzky said, you miss 100% of the shots you dont take. even if it’s a weak shot, PUT IT ON NET. That’s one of the reasons Ovy is so successful; he loves to shoot and by doing so he creates rebounds and pressure on the goalie. Our guys just like to pass the puck around on the pp until someone makes a mistake and its picked off. Kovy used to always be the one who wasnt afraid to shoot (although it often was so inaccurate it would curve around the boards out of the zone). I think this really falls on JA’s shoulders I havent been to a practice this year, but I would like to know A.) why they aren’t practicing and drilling it in to Toby’s head to take shots in open lanes and B.) why we’re still so undisciplined. B is a bit of a digression, but obviously the awful pp and bad penalties have killed us these last 2 games. these need to improve FAST or else we can wait for next season earlier than we hoped.

by dennylambert!! on Mar 8, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

If you look at the stats over time you’ll see that NHL players are remarkably consistent almost from their rookie season in their shots on goal. Some guys will improve their totals somewhat if they start out low, but off the top of my head it’s just about unheard of for a guy who shoots about 1 time a game to suddenly go to 2 or 3 times a game. That’s the one thing that worried me about Toby as a rookie – his shot totals were too low. At this point with years of hockey watching I have come to the conclusion that you might as well try to teach a dog to speak as expect a guy with low shot totals to suddenly start shooting more. If Toby would shoot 2 to 3 times a game he should end up with 10+ goals a season, but I don’t think that will ever happen.

by Zontar on Mar 9, 2010 8:01 AM EST up reply actions  

but toby has spent his whole career as of recent playing on the point with kovy. i think a lot of players would think “pass to kovy” in that case, and maybe coaches even told toby to spread the defense and quickly pass to kovy instead of shooting. as toby’s hesitance on the pp becomes more evident and consequential the pressure SHOULD mount on either JA to remove toby from the pp or really attempt to ramp up his shooter’s mentality through practices. I know JA has been telling Toby to take more shots since he became the coach, but we always had kovy to fall back on. Now that kovy’s gone, something’s gotta change on this pp, because its ineptitude is quickly hurting our already frail playoff chances.

by dennylambert!! on Mar 9, 2010 11:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Anybody bother to take a look at Toby’s shot totals from the Olympics? He certainly wasn’t playing with Kovalchuk there…

Just curious.

by timmyf on Mar 9, 2010 12:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

So I’m going to say he’s not a shooter.

by timmyf on Mar 9, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions  

the first step is acceptance.

by dennylambert!! on Mar 9, 2010 2:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Falconer, I wish they’d put you on the payroll for advance scouting, in-game adjustments and post-game analysis. We’d probably be comfortably in the 5th or 6th spot right now…

by My3(Thrasher)Sons on Mar 8, 2010 8:37 PM EST reply actions  

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