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Lightning Postmortem, Canes Preview

Carolina Hurricanes at Atlanta Thrashers, Mar 7, 2010 5:00 PM EST


Watching the Thrashers last night was pretty rough. In fact, I nearly turned the game off, and I almost never think about turning off a live hockey game.

It was a night where not a whole lot went right for the Thrashers: they were beat at even-strength, they were beat at special teams, they were beat on a penalty shot. They lost an important game to a division rival that clearly wanted the win more. After a strong start, the Thrashers ended up on a couple successive penalty kills and just never regained momentum.

In a game where the Thrashers were outscored 4-2 at even-strength, the "180 Line" of Little - Antropov - Bergfors ended up as a +3 with 3 points (that's +1, 1 point each) and a total of 12 shots.

12 shots! Compare that to the Peverley line (6 shots, -5, 1 point total) and the Kane/Artyukhin-Slater-Armstrong line (4 shots, -2, 2 points between the 4)... Clearly the Thrashers have found a solid top line. More on these guys after the jump...

Star-divide

The addition of Niclas Bergfors has been good for the Thrashers in general, but it's been especially good for Bryan Little. For comparison's sake, here's Bryan's stats before and after he began playing with Bergfors:

GP G A +/- S%
Before 52 8 14 -8 7.6
After 8 2 5 +4 11.8

 

Those (obviously) aren't per game numbers, but at a per-game rate, he's obviously picked up the assists and total points. Goals are a bit closer, but those have picked up too: from 0.15 goals/game to 0.25. That's still on a relatively small sample size, but if you extend his current play across an 80-game season, Bryan ends up with 20 goals, 51 assists, and is +41. Those are the numbers we'd love to see from a 12th overall pick in 2006.

Bergfors has had absolutely phenomenal numbers with the Thrashers. Over an 82-game stretch, he projects out to 61 goals, 10 assists, and +50. That's not to say that I think Bergfos will score 60 goals next season, but it isn't unrealistic to expect 30 goals from him. If Bergfors scores 30 goals, he will almost single-handedly replace the scoring lost in the Ilya Kovalchuk trade. He places a little defense to boot!

So, despite the awful play from the team last night, there are positive things in the cards for the Thrashers, both this season and next. While the Montreal Canadiens have technically taken the 8th playoff spot from the Thrashers, if you sort the standings by Games Above/Below 0.500, the Thrashers are still sitting in a playoff spot.

A win tonight against the Hurricanes and a Canadiens loss to the Ducks will put the Thrashers back in 8th. (For those of you keeping track, you should be cheering for the Ducks, Penguins, Sabres, and Maple Leafs tonight.)

As Coach Anderson has begun saying, "every game is the most important game of the season." The Thrashers are going to need to avoid some of the long losing streaks that have plagued them for so many seasons. Win two, lose one, and make the playoffs. Win two, lose four, and we're done.

Tonight's Three Questions of the Game:

  1. Can the Slater Line Perform without Evander Kane? The Thrashers lost Kane in the first period against Tampa after he blocked a shot with his foot. He was ruled out for tonight's game during the Tampa game. We'll have more information on Monday, so it's not time to freak out (yet). The injury has broken up what has been the Thrashers' most consistently strong line over the past couple months. During the Tampa game, Evgeny Artyukhin moved up to fill Kane's spot, and I imagine he'll be there again tonight (with one of White, Kozlov, or Boulton dressing to fill the open spot on the 4th line.) Artyukhin has the speed and size to be a force on that line, but he may not have the chemistry that Kane had.
  2. Can the Thrashers Bounce Back in Goal? Johan Hedberg did not have a great game. Sure, he didn't get much help from his team, but he wasn't spectacular. If the Thrashers expect to make the playoffs and actually win a game this time, they're going to need some spectacular goaltending. So far this season, at least since November, it's been all Hedberg. He's going to need to be the game-stealing Hedberg... or Ondrej Pavelec is going to need to play like the Pavelec that shutout Detroit in The Joe.
  3. Can the "180 Line" Keep From Doing Another 180? Consistency is tough, especially for young players. Both Bryan Little and Niclas Bergfors have been a little inconsistent. (Remember that, before coming to the Thrashers, Bergfors was pointless in 13 games and goalless in 17.) Nik Antropov doesn't have a reputation for being a consistent scorer. This line has been a major boon for the Thrashers because all three guys have been playing excellent hockey. If that changes, if one or two of these guys hit a slump, it could mean major problems for a team that needs to be firing on all cylinders to win.

If you don't already have tickets to the game, remember that the team is selling good tickets for just $20... with half of that going to the Haiti relief effort. Details are here on the Blueland Blog.

Poll
Tonight the Thrashers will...
Bounce back and crush the Canes!
16 votes
Win... Maybe in OT, but it's 2 points...
13 votes
Squeak out a point.
2 votes
Lose in regulation.
7 votes
Get crushed. Destroyed.
14 votes

52 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments |

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Comments

Display:

Playoff Odds for Tonight.

A win pushes the Thrashers odds of making the post-season from 45% to 52%, a loss would drop them from 45% to 34%.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Mar 7, 2010 1:27 PM EST reply actions  

I’m not sure I agree with the SportsClubStats methodology. I look at the site, same as everyone else… but I’m not sure I agree. It seems WAY too volatile at this point in the season… wins and losses are causing the odds to jump by 10% in either direction. I mean, the outcome tonight will put us between 34% and 52%? That’s a pretty big window…

…and it’s not like anyone else can do much better, I just try not to read too much into the numbers. imho.

by timmyf on Mar 7, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

The large swings occur because the point gap separating teams is so close. The probability distribution approaches “knife edge” shape where the gain or loss of a single game can produce huge swings. In the case of last night, the Thrashers not only lost but both Montreal, Boston and Tampa all won 2 points—hence the very big swing down for the Thrashers.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Mar 7, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh yeah, I know why it happens. I just think it’s not particularly useful at this point. Heck, even 5 games before the end of the season, it still won’t mean much.

It’s the best we have, but it still sucks.

by timmyf on Mar 7, 2010 4:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I respectfully disagree. The closer to the end of the season, the more meaningful it is. Late in the season each loss becomes critical because, as The Falconer points out, other teams in the hunt may win when the Thrashers lose, magnifying the damage. But still it’s just a measure of the probability of doing something and nothing. Teams do beat the odds.

Interesting that you mention “5 games before the end of the season”. I’m sure you pulled that number out of the air, but I suppose it’s worth pointing out that the Thrashers final 5 games, all in April, are about as brutal as they can be coming against 3 of the current top 4 teams. Rather than post a long explanation I will simply say that those 5 games will come against some highly motivated teams who have differing reasons as to why they would like to beat the Thashers in each game. I think it’s well within the realm of possibility that the Thrashers could get between 0 and 2 points total in those 5 games and if so they almost certainly won’t go to the playoffs.

by Zontar on Mar 7, 2010 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

If you read Falconer’s post about the things that happen down the stretch, he makes precisely the opposite point: the top two teams tend to coast into the playoffs and lose a couple games. The 3-seed is usually still fighting, though.

I think it’s just as instructive to look at games above/below 0.500. SCS does some nice things regarding ties, though. It’s all highly variable. My point was that, 5 games before the season, there could be a certain probability of all the teams making the playoffs… but if – after one more game – the teams all jump around 15-20%, what’s the point? You might as well just say, “the teams that win will make the playoffs.”

by timmyf on Mar 7, 2010 9:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I just don’t have much faith after last night. The effort just wasn’t there. Although I liked Macarthur sticking up for Reasoner.

by Pogue Mahon on Mar 7, 2010 1:42 PM EST reply actions  

It’s worth keeping in mind that we’ve played poorly against the Lightning all season… and they were on a long losing streak. They saw this as a chance to win won and they capitalized.

That’s why tonight’s so important: one game is an outlier… two starts to look like a trend.

by timmyf on Mar 7, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s a trend alright. A trend of flat, gutless hockey. If they showed a shot of the bench and I saw Hartley skulking about, I wouldn’t be surprised.

by Pogue Mahon on Mar 7, 2010 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

The guy in front of me was wearing a Petrovicky sweater. The team in front of me looked like the Petrovicky Thrashers.

I’m going to use that line in a blog I’m writing… right now…

by timmyf on Mar 7, 2010 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure Moose is the answer...

to making it into the post season. He looked shaky against the Islanders (rebound control) and again last night. I was and still am all for ridding ourselves of Lehtonen, but I wish we would have gotten a rental in goal for the playoff push.

by Blut-0 on Mar 7, 2010 4:40 PM EST reply actions  

Who was available? I don’t remember any playoff-ready goaltenders changing teams…

Not saying it didn’t happen, I just don’t remember it.

by timmyf on Mar 7, 2010 4:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

None changed...

but, eventhough we scortched them, Rolo or Biron may have added good depth. Don’t get me wrong, I like Moose but as a back-up.

by Blut-0 on Mar 7, 2010 4:49 PM EST reply actions  

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