In appears that the Eastern Conference is in for a wild ride as 5 teams try to shoehorn their way into the final 2 playoff spots. I thought it would be interesting to look at how the last four seasons have played out following the Trade Deadline. I have constructed a table for each year that shows where each team stood on the Trade Deadline Day, how they played after Trade Day and their final rankings. Let's see what we can learn from recent history.

2005-06 East Playoff Race

The 2006 playoff race is the least interesting of the four. The 8 teams that were in a playoff position on Trade Day held serve and kept their spots--this is the only year of the four where there was no turnover after Trade Day. The Thrashers and Leafs both made a charge and increased their Winning % substantially after Trade Day but each finished one win shy of being tied for 8th.

One pattern that emerges in 2006 is that the top two seeds really coasted into the playoffs. This will be true of all four East post-lockout battles. The top seeds know they have qualified and they do not sustain their previous Win %. What is interesting is that the 3rd seed often increases their Win %--perhaps this is an effort to improve their home ice seeding for the post-season.

2006-07 East Playoff Race

The 2007 East Playoff Race was more exciting with the Rangers pulling a huge upset and coming from 7 points back to snag a post-season birth. To accomplish this feat they put together an insane .750 Win % and were on a pace for 123 points in the post-Trade Deadline part of the season. The 8th place team at the time of the trade deadline was defending Cup champs Carolina who were bumped out by a hot Rangers club and an anemic .472 Win % in the final quarter of the regular season. Montreal and Toronto were right in the mix at the Trade Deadline but the Thrashers pulled away and the Islanders just barely hung on.

2007-08 East Playoff Race

The 2008 East race featured another dramatic come-from-behind story as the Washington Capitals completed one of the more amazing in-season turnaround stories. At the Tread Deadline the Caps were still 5 points back of the 8th place team but a crazy good .789 Win % allowed them to blow past the field of competitors and qualify. The Flyers managed to hold onto their spot, but the Sabres who lost the playoff spot they held on Trade Day due to the Caps surge into the  top 8. The Islanders were in the mix but they played expansion team bad in the final quarter of the season. The Carolina Hurricanes had some tough luck, they were in a three way tie for the 8th spot on Trade Day and managed to increase their Win %, but the red hot Caps surpassed them and the Flyers pulled away, leaving the Canes to play early golf.

2008-09 East Playoff Race

Last year's playoff battle featured two upsets. There were 4 teams basically tied for the last 2 playoffs spots, based on Win percentage. Pittsburgh and Carolina would have been out, but each team played red hot over the final quarter and continued rolling right into the post-season where the would meet each other in the Eastern Conference Finals. Buffalo and Rangers were neck and neck with the Penguins and Hurricanes at Trade Day, the Rangers managed to hang on while the Sabres were bumped out of the playoffs. But the biggest fall was that of the Florida Panthers who had a small 2 point lead and kept star D Jay Bouwmeester only to see their Win % slip down the stretch and miss the post-season by one point.

2009-10 East Playoff Race

Based on past patterns any team with a 3 point lead or greater is highly likely to make the post-season, so I count 6 likely playoff teams including the Flyers. Much like last year that leaves a desperate scramble of four teams (BOS, ATL, NYR, MON) for the last 2 berths. Tampa has an outside chance but they would need to play .750 hockey the rest of the way to have any shot. At the Trade Deadline Montreal had more points but other teams like the Thrasher have as many as 3 games in hand on them. If you look at points Montreal is in 7th, but if you look at Win % they are in 10th--that's how close the East is this year.

Post-Season Threshold: A Moving Target?

Careful readers may have noticed that if you look at the 8th place team on Trade Day and compare that with the final number of points won by the end-of-season 8th place team, the target rises over the final quarter of the season. How much does it go up? The first two years the number of points to qualify rose 1 point after the Trade Deadline and two years ago it rose a whopping 4 points, while last year it increased 2 points. My guess is that the fierce battle in the East will probably require 89-90 points to get in.

Key Conclusions

• It is extremely difficult for a team to make up ground after the Trade Deadline. If you're not within a point or two of 8th place on Trade Day the odds of making the post-season are very tough.
• Only two teams have manged to overcome any sizable point deficit in the last 4 springs. The 2008 Washington Capitals made up 5 points and 2007 Rangers made up 7 points.Out of about 20 teams seeking to break into the top 8 only 10% have managed the feat over the last 4 springs.
  
• No team with a 4 point cushion on Trade Day has collapsed and fallen out of the playoffs (although the 2008 Ottawa Senators almost pulled it off)
• In recent years the bubble teams have increased their W% post-trade deadline which pushed up the number of points needed to get into 8th place.
• In recent years the top two seeds have slacked off in the final weeks and coasted into the playoffs. But the #3 seed (at the Trade Deadline) has actually increased their W% each spring. Bubble teams sometimes have a higher W% post-Trade Deadline than the eventual #1 or #2 seeds.