RFA Targets for this summer?
by The Falconer on Mar 17, 2010 3:50 PM EDT
in Opinion
9 comments
The UFA pool this summer is rather weak and it loaded with old guys who are near to their decline phase. As a Thrashers fan I want to see this team get better and avoid adding another Todd White or decline phase Slava Kozlov.
Another possible option would entail making an offer to a RFA (Restricted Free Agent). Tyler Dellow (aka Mudcrutch) makes the case that you don't want to make a offer to a RFA that would cost your club a high 1st rounder, but losing a high 2nd or 3rd rounder for a young sure fire NHL player is actually a solid bet. (The draft pick compensation awarded to a team that losses a RFA is determined by the amount of money that players signs for.)
If I ran an NHL team that had money to spend, I would be scouring the second and third lines of the really good teams that are tight to the cap, looking for players who might be able to play bigger roles and teams that can’t afford to pay people for potential, because they’re busy paying people for performance. Washington might be a pretty good example of that. The Caps are currently at $36.7MM for next year with an awful lot of guys to sign, including Nicklas Backstrom and Eric Fehr.
The Capitals are just one of several teams facing a real salary crunch as their players seek raises and the cap holds steady. Other teams on this list include Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia and perhaps Montreal. He tosses out some more names that could be signed for amounts that would only cost a 2nd or 3rd rounder.
There are tons of these guys out there this summer - my non-exhaustive list includes Fehr, Andrew Ladd, Braydon Coburn, Ryan Parent, James Sheppard, Josh Harding, Blake Wheeler, Marc Staal, Kris Letang, Joe Pavelski, Bobby Ryan, David Perron, Erik Johnson, Martin Hanzal, Wojtek Wolski, Rob Schremp and Ryan Kesler. I’m sure that some of these players, you simply could not get for the money and picks that are available. I am, however, convinced that there will be some opportunity, particularly if the salary cap doesn’t go up by too much.
I'm sure the Flyers, Bruins and Blackhawks will be dialing Don Waddell offering to dump some of their bloated contracts onto his roster. If Kubina doesn't return, I have the team payroll sitting at about $41-42 million after Atlanta's RFAs are re-signed. Rather than accept one of these fat contracts, the better route would be to make Chicago pay for their Campbell and Huet contractual errors by bidding up the price of their RFAs. Make them pay for their past free agents mistakes by pricing their own players out of their budget.
Taking such a route is unlikely to win any friends among fellow GMs in the league, but last time a checked none of these other GMs were doing the Thrashers any favors. It's a hyper competitive environment and only half the teams make the post-season and only 1 teams finishes on top. It's not a popularity contest. Do I think the Thrashers will take this approach? No. Would they be wise to take a hard look at making some RFA offers? Yes.
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Pretty Sharp Look
I’d love to see this ridiculous “gentlemen’s agreement” disappear League-wide. Intresting point about attacking Chicago and being able to steal some of their talent for late round picks.
Waddell and Dudley (mentioning him in case he becomes the GM here) are both Old School guys. Old School guys don’t stab other GMs in the back and that’s exactly how RFA offers are viewed. It’s interesting speculation, but it will never happen. Plus, off the top of my head for the few times in the past that RFAs did change teams, I can’t recall any that ended up being terrific deals for the buyer. Dustin Penner is the last big name RFA to change teams and Edmonton lost the gamble that he would improve after joining them. Penner’s stats have sort of flat lined and I think it’s fair to say that Edmonton was expecting somewhat more than they got from him, even though he’s not terrible.
Heck, I’ll even go so far as to predict that Hedberg will be the only UFA that the team will re-sign this summer. Waddell’s recent statements about waiting until April to negotiate with Army and Kubina most likely mean that neither wants to return.
I don’t think Moose is coming back. I suspect DW will overpay both $$ and years to Kubina to keep him around. He might be the only UFA we keep.
The only way the Thrashers are going to get help is via salary dumps, the UFA F market is lean, and the UFA G market isn’t much better.
I am concerned the Thrashers get younger, and further away from playoff contention next season. I doubt the Thrasher will get as lucky in the offseason as they did this offseason, not too often you win a big trade and get a solid Top 6 F dirt cheap for peanuts.
The RFA angle is interesting to look at and talk about, but with DW and Dudley it just will not happen unless we trade for one.
Frenchie and Johnson aren't going anywhere.
The fans’d mutiny. That being said, a player in Perron’s mold would be extremely helpful to the Thrashers. Absolutely amazing puck handling skills.
I also wouldn’t be shocked, like Zontar said, if Moose is the only UFA re-signed. I want to see Kubina and Max re-upped, but me being my pessimist self, I don’t think it’ll happen.
Reporter: There`s a "stamp out the Beatles movement" underway in Detroit. What are you going to do about it?
Paul McCartney: We`re going to start a campaign to stamp out Detroit.
I’ve never been a fan of making offer sheets to RFAs as a general principle. It’s just inviting bad karma. And it’s especially risky when we ourselves have a number of good young players other GMs might view as tempting and we have such a strict internal budget. Besides, how many good trades has Lowe been able to pull off since that Vanek/Penner fiasco?
I think there’s enough opportunity with a few teams that are in cap crunches to make a good deal there. It doesn’t have to mean we take back an overly-bloated salary, although that might also appeal to the owners (think Schneider trade at the beginning of last season to get the team over the floor).
The main problem is going to be the amount of pressure this club is going to be under to once again make the play-offs now. Most people are out of patience as evidenced by the pisspoor attendance. And last time the organization felt too much pressure to make the play-offs, bad things happened.
Bad Karma?
How could this team be any worse? What could possibly happen with this organization that would somehow make people think something bad had happened? They’ve already had a player die, had an incredible rash of bad luck with goalies and had 2 top players lie so as to not be traded before the deadline. They’ve been a perrennial bottom 10 team for their entire existence and have had 3 different ownerships who have managed to outdo the incompetence of the previous regime.
Haven't you learned yet ...
it can always manage to be worse. ;)
First a GM should attempt to make a trade, the team that would be giving up the offer sheet has to be willing to give up assets in the draft picks anyway so why not attempt to make the trade. The NJ fist round pick might very well get us a top 6 forward from a cap strapped team if packaged with a B level prospect.
The GM world is only 30 managers plus assistants so it is a small world. Making offer sheets without first trying to make the deal could put a GM in a position where a man who feels wronged refuses to work with him. Not saying that is apt to happen but it is a small group and we see pairs of teams make a number of deals over the course of years. No GM wants to limit his options down the road in terms of willing trade partners.
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