Top 3 Draft Pick Closer than Playoffs for Thrashers
by The Falconer on Mar 15, 2010 12:32 PM EDT
in Analysis
15 comments
After winning just a single point in their last six games the Thrashers have dropped down into the basement of the NHL standings. If the season ended today the Thrashers would pick 6th or 7th (they are tied with FLA in Win %). However, the teams at the bottom are very tightly bunched and if the Thrashers tailspin continues they could easily end up with the 3rd overall draft pick. Carolina has been red hot and the Thrashers play them twice more, Atlanta could easily "catch" the Hurricanes for the 3rd worst position by the end of the season.
- EDM 49
- TOR 58
- CAR 64
- NYI 65
- CBJ 65
- FLA 66
- ATL 67
- TBL 68
Now, I realize that most fans are probably thinking "enough with the high draft picks!" But consider this for a moment. They key to building a contender is assembling a foundation of young talent that will continue to grow and improvement over a 5-6 period as they enter their peak performance years. The Chicago Blackhawks and LA Kings have done exactly that and should be powerhouses for the next few years as a result. The Thrasher have had a handful of young and talented stars but they have never had more than a handful at any one point in time.
If the Thrashers were to sneak into the top three picks they would have a shot at drafting one of the top scoring talents in the 2010 NHL Draft: Tyler Seguin and Taylor Hall or a solid top six prospect like Nino Niederreiter. Each of these prospects might be able to step into the NHL at age 18 and play next season. The Thrashers prospect pool is deep in several positions, but scoring forwards are always in short supply. Jeremy Morin probably needs another season in juniors to work on his skating and Eric O'Dell might need a year or two in the AHL
If the Thrashers were lucky enough to land either Seguin, Hall or Niederriter those players would be comparatively cheap during their 3 year entry level contract. They could fill out a top six spot and leave the team money to go add a free agent scorer in the off season.
What are the odds of picking in the top three? Here are the Club Sports Odds of Atlanta finished in each draft slot at the end of the year.
- 01% chance
- 10% chance
- 16% chance
- 21% chance
- 22% chance
- 17% chance
If you add up the probabilities there is a 27% chance (better than 1 in 4) of the Atlanta finishing in the bottom three. Of course finished 3rd worse doesn't guaranteee the 3rd pick because of the draft lottery. The Thrashers could move down one slot (if a team behind them won) or up to the #1 pick if they won the lottery. The winner can move up a maximum of 4 spots in the draft order so the 4th and 5th place slot teams have a small chance of picking in the top three--but it is only a small chance. (4th place as an 11% of winning the lottery and 5th place an 8% chance of winning). The odds of the Thrashers finishing in the bottom five are 70% right now. So there is a very good chance that we will be waiting on pins and needles on lottery day.
As painful as it is to fall out of the playoff race this late in the season, adding another elite talent could add another young building block to the foundation of the team. There are only two phases in pro sports. If you're not contending you're rebuilding.
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I'm so excited...
about the possibility of winning… the draft. Again.
Let me buy some season tickets now.
I appreciate your effort to make lemonade out of lemons, though, Falconer.
by CuckooForKovalchuk on Mar 15, 2010 12:38 PM EDT reply actions
How quickly things change
Just a couple of weeks ago one of the readers was asking if John Anderson had a serious chance to be Coach of the Year. I think that question has been definitively answered – No!
Since I don’t think winning 12 of the remaining games is a realistic wish, I hope that they’ll lose as many as possible and get as early a pick as possible. I see no reason at all to be optimistic about next year with the departing unrestricted free agents and DW’s recent nhl.com comments which I interpret to mean “Don’t expect us to do much in free agency”. All the young guys we drafted who could help us at forward won’t be ready until 2011-12 at best.
I know it’s going to be hard to
i believe i said if the thrashers made it to the playoffs, JA would have been a candidate. That condition most likely will not be met. Next year wont necessarily be a bust though. Look at PHX and COL this year. If we DO fall in the top 3, we’re in Seguin territory if Hall and Fowler go 1 and 2. Look what duchene, also a 3rd OV pick, has done his first year in COL. Look what ALL the youngsters have done in COL. Much of PHX’s success can and should be attributed to Bryzgalov and probably Tippet, but they play a very sound game with mostly young, inexperienced players. ATL COULD surprise the league next year and play like they did immediately after kovy left. I wouldnt completely count them out yet.
by dennylambert!! on Mar 15, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Just to be clear, my reason for mentioning that was not to criticize you but to point out how quickly things have changed. The original question/suggestion about Anderson’s candidacy wasn’t terrible although he was not the best candidate for the award. But in just 5 games we’ve seen the Thrashers tumble out of playoff contention and Anderson probably watch his job go with them.
Yes, the Thrashers could in theory surprise, but how many times do we fans have to go down this path of hoping against all evidence that the organization will get the right coach, the right GM, the right players, not waste draft picks on longshot players, etc. etc. etc? We’ll see, but the odds are not exactly in our favor here.
we’ve all been thrashers fans for some time now, so we should all know we’ve NEVER had this much young talent in our system. Kane, Bogo, Bergfors, Enstrom, Klingberg, Kulda, Valabik, Little, Cormier, Vishnevski, Pavs, Morin, et al. I dont think ATL has ever been ranked among the top 3 in prospect rankings as we are now, and that’s before our top 8 pick or better and probably a mid-20 pick in this year’s draft. In many respects, this is business as usual for the thrashers, but it’s not the same as in previous years, because we have a future now. Also, we never had Dudley before and his scouting abilities. We also fired our QMJHL scout, thank god. I think both of these changes should definitely result in improved drafting for the thrashers.
by dennylambert!! on Mar 16, 2010 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
This is completely insane
The fact that you can even post this as a real scenario is unforgivable.
In 2 weeks, this team has gone from 6th place and an exciting run to the playoffs to also-ran and a very real shot a top draft pick. How can anyone with decision-making authority with this organization not be furious at the lack of effort accountability and total disregard of any kind of urgency?
It’s pathetic that the only people who give a shit are the fans. Not the owners, not the VP, not the GM, coaches or players.
The west has many more points. ANY team in 8th that fell to 10th was going to have a shot at a top 10 draft pick. Look at how the East stacks up to the NHL overall standings.
If the playoffs began today the Bruins would be the 8th seed, but rank just 18th in the Overall Standings!
The Rangers are the 9th place team and they would 22nd overall!!
1st WSH
6th PIT
8th NJD
10th BUF
13 PTT
15 PHI
16 MTL
18 BOS
22 NYR
23 TBL
24 ATL
25 FLA
27 NYI
28 CAR
29 TOR
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Mar 15, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
TIME TO REBOOT
I think a fair number of folks probably thought the post Kovy trade Thrashers were not a legit playoff team. We can always debtate that. It is accurate that teams that barely make the playoffs are rarely threats to make a deep run. Falconer’s series on building a successful team points out that most Cup winners finish in the top 6.
Given that imo we should have leveraged a few more guys for picks or players. We will see some significant attrition in the offseason with Kubina, Army, etc, likely moving on.
This team will get younger and most likely will not be a playoff team although like the Coyotes you can hope.
May I suggest if you want to play like the Coyotes or the Preds you better bring in a different coach and system.
I also think the selling of a rebuilding phase must fall on a new GM. Dale Tallon would be interesting choice, built the
Blackhawks with alot of picks, spent alot of Wirtz money-not always smartly but I would rather have their problems than ours. Close with Dudley, if he can work on a small budget he might be an intriguing choice. His drafts favored size, speed and character with offensive upside
Would love to see Cunneyworth or Brent Peterson behind the bench next year.
You must be kidding
Dale Tallon is the guy who hamstrung the Hawks with the absurd UFA signings of Campbell and Huet. Typing up 1/5 of your salary in 2 above-average players is idiotic, not commendable. Because of this, Chicago is having to get rid of good players for little return.
Any talent evaluation was because of Dudley, not Dale freaking Tallon.
Shoulda put him back in the booth with Pat Foley.
This draft is reportedly deep so it is not just the 2 first rounders that are important. Yes Army will probably go but his rights might be traded prior to the draft. Accrueing draft picks and using them wisely when a number of teams are going to be looking to unload salary around draft time would give the Thrash organization alot of leverage. The NJ 1st is going to be golden come draft day. In a very real sense if the team continues to fall we could get 2 NHL top 6 forwards out of this draft.
Maybe we need to focus a little lower in the draft rounds
We have an abysmal record of managing our high first rounders: Patty, Danny, Kovy, Kari, Braydon, Bouret, “hello, anybody home?” God that is just painful to type. Jury is still out on Valabik, and Little and Bogo have just become headscratch material. And then there is Kane. By the time he’s a UFA, Michael Buble will probably be a part owner in the ’Nucks and woo him back to Vancouver knowing our luck.
Let’s stockpile 4th rounders……
Danny who? The kid that killed his best friend? Yep, Atlanta did an abysmal job of managing him.
by SilverRubicon on Mar 17, 2010 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s worth mentioning that even great hockey franchises lose their best players. Look at what happened to Buffalo a few years back…
They went to the Eastern Conference finals and lost… And then they lost their TWO captains, Drury and Briere.
by timmyf on Mar 17, 2010 10:04 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I like it
Just tank for a while, get some nice young players, build around them, slowly fill in the gaps with veterans and role players, quietly become the oldest team in the league, finally make the playoffs……
Saw this movie the first time around, didn’t care for the ending.
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| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
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Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
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Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
Thrashers Schedule
Next 5 Games
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Washington
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Fri 10/08 | 7:30 PM EDT |
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@
Tampa Bay
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Sat 10/09 | 7:30 PM EDT |
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@
Los Angeles
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Tue 10/12 | 10:30 PM EDT |
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Anaheim
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Fri 10/15 | 10:00 PM EDT |
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@
San Jose
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Sat 10/16 | 10:30 PM EDT |
Last 5 Games
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Pittsburgh
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Sat 04/10 | W 1 - 0 |
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@
Washington
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Fri 04/09 | L 2 - 5 |
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New Jersey
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Tue 04/06 | L 0 - 3 |
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@
Pittsburgh
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Sat 04/03 | OT - L 3 - 4 |
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@
Washington
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Thu 04/01 | L 1 - 2 |
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