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Does Tobias Enstrom Not Shoot Enough?

"Shoot!" yells the woman behind me.

"That Toby Enstrom, somebody needs to teach him to shoot the damn puck," offers her companion.

"If Toby shot more, the powerplay would be less predictable and more likely to score!" says the conventional wisdom. "But everybody knows that Toby will just pass. It's so obvious!"

It's hard to be the person who pops in to suggest that maybe, just maybe, the guy who's taken himself from an 8th round (239th overall) draft pick to the cornerstone of the Atlanta Thrashers blueline just might know what he's doing. Of course, there's no hard and fast rule for when to shoot the puck and when to maintain possession, but most hockey fans live and die by the Gretzky rule:

You miss 100% of the shots you never take.

True. But also terribly misleading. I'll try to solve this riddle with stats... after the jump.

Star-divide

First, let's set some ground-rules:

  1. We're only talking powerplay here. It's too difficult to filter out all the variables at even-strength. On the powerplay, we've got a pretty good idea of what's going on. Plus, this is when people whine the most anyway... (And I'm only looking at 5-on-4 PP stats.)
  2. We're limiting this discussion to only four defensemen: Tobias Enstrom, Pavel Kubina, Ron Hainsey, and Zach Bogosian. There's just not enough data for the other guys, including Johnny Oduya.
  3. The goal is to show whether shooting more from the blueline on the powerplay helps or hurts the team's performance.
If you take a look at the basic powerplay stats, you'll notice a few things. Enstrom is the most effective at picking up points by far: his 3.24 points/60 compares quite favorably to Hainsey, Kubina, and Bogosian (2.37, 2.31, 2.02 respectively.) He's second in goals forced/60, a measure of how effective the entire unit is. (Kubina: 5.55, Enstrom: 5.26, Bogosian: 4.04, Hainsey: 2.37.)

If you take the first measure and divide it by the second, you get points/goal forced, a measure that shows what percentage of the time the player gets a point when the powerplay unit gets a goal. You could perhaps call this the "participation rate." Enstrom sits at 62%, compared to Kubina at 42%. (Hainsey and Bogosian may not have played enough on the PP for this to be a useful stat.)

Perhaps more interesting is the graph you get when you compare the powerplay unit's shots (per 60) with their goals (again, per 60). The operating assumption is that more shots means more goals, right? About that...

Shots_versus_goals_on_the_pp_medium

As it turns out, more shots seems to mean less goals. The powerplay unit's shooting percentage absolutely plummets when Zach Bogosian or Ron Hainsey are on the ice. It's quite high when Kubina or Enstrom are out there. That split is not particularly surprising. Isn't that the stereotype? Europeans shoot less and hold the puck more? They're more crafty? (Except a Mister Alexander Ovechkin, of course.)

Remember this next time Toby passes rather than attempt a shot on an unscreened goalie with a few bodies in the way to block the shot: you may not like it, but he's effective. More effective than Human Puck Cannon Ron Hainsey. (Yes, the point on the graph to the far right is Hainsey.) You don't score on 100% of the shots you don't take, but you also don't score when you fire the puck at a penalty-killer's shin.

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There are limits to “crafty” at some point. If the opposition PK knows Enstrom will never shoot then they can cheat off him and focus on the other 4 guys.

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by The Falconer on Mar 10, 2010 10:28 AM EST reply actions  

Right, but wouldn’t that show up in the stats?

I get the “hockey logic” here, I’m just saying that it apparently hasn’t affected his numbers much.

by timmyf on Mar 10, 2010 10:34 AM EST up reply actions  

I believe so, but it would take more data. As teams have started to cheat away from Enstrom you should either see an increase in the number of shots he takes on the power play or a decrease in his goals forced number.

The most interesting part of this post is ridiculously high goals forced from Kubina while not being a big point producer. Not sure how you would measure this, but is it possible that defensemen who are able to keep the puck in the zone/hold the point create a higher goals forced than traditional offensive defensemen?

Good post Timmy.

by Unknown Wristshot on Mar 10, 2010 11:32 AM EST up reply actions  

I find fans bellowing “SHOOT” during the PP, while the player with the puck clearly has no shot, to be tiresome.

by videofarmer on Mar 10, 2010 11:20 AM EST reply actions  

Tobias Enstrom could probably stand to shoot the puck a few more times on the powerplay on a nightly basis. However, I do not want him to trade his current style on the extra-man unit for one that is over aggressive or removes his role as a handler of the puck/playmaker.

Ron Hainsey is dangerously irresponsible on the powerplay. I saw three rushes on Tuesday in which Hainsey tried to take on three penalty killers solo… results? Not good. Hainsey lost possession and the Nashville got an easy clear.

The duo at the top needs to have some defined roles, but the two point guys should not be confined to those roles. Enstrom has a good shot and Bogosian/Kubina can deliver the puck. How about a wrinkle that appears as if the play is for a left point one-timer (by either Zach or Pavel), but then gets quickly reversed for an Enstrom blast?

The main problems I see with the powerplay currently are three fold:

1. Atlanta’s forwards are stagnant. The obvious starting point for John Anderson’s extra-man unit comes from the point; usually in the form of a one-timer. Atlanta rarely uses the ice down below the goal to set up a PP and the as a result the forwards are left waiting for the shot to come hoping for deflections or rebounds. Without some movement or rotation, Atlanta doesn’t work the PKL unit and when a shot is deflected, stopped, or put out on a rebound, the PKers for the opposing team are essentially as fresh as our forwards to get to a loose puck and clear it. The forwards have to start working the ice.

2. Entry into the zone. The Thrashers as a team are terrible at recognizing what the PK units of other teams are doing and then adjusting. It’s just stubborn hockey and I’m surprised that attitude hasn’t changed from when Kovalchuk left. Hainsey, Kubina, Antropov, Bergfors, and Enstrom were all guilty of at least one ill-advised carry-in to the offensive zone which directly resulted into a clear. Sometimes the flow of play allows for a carry-in, but other times the highest chance of attaining the zone is to chip and charge or rattle it to the far side boards and out number the puck. Being up 5-on-4 does not issue a free pass to NOT out work the other team.

3. Adjusting to adjustments. Word is out and the Thrashers are a team that consistently looks for shots from the point to power the man-advantage. This problem lies both on the coaching staff and the players. If the PK unit is rotating two men with heavy pressure on BOTH points, especially early in the powerplay, then the puck has to move down low… where the space is… forcing the PK unit to adjust. Too many times the Thrashers play right into the teeth of the PK. I’m not sure whether it’s a coaching or a personnel issue, but this is where Slava Kozlov’s struggle have really hurt the team. When Kozzy is at his best on the man-up, the professor works the PK. Atlanta doesn’t really have any forwards that are powerplay specialists at the NHL level (yet). Think about it: Peverley is in his first full season. Little did well last year but his struggles this year are documented. Bergfors is a rookie. Antro was a 2nd PP unit guy in Toronto. Max didn’t play on the PP the last three years in Buffalo.

Enstrom is the least of our worries on the powerplay. Could he shoot more? Sure, but so could Antropov. Bogosian needs to learn how to hit the net and Little has been snake bitten all season long.

by Zim! on Mar 10, 2010 12:05 PM EST reply actions  

Of course, a good bit of Enstrom’s time was spent playing with Ilya Kovalchuk on the other point. I’m not knocking the d-men, but there’s a big dropoff between Kovy and the other d-men in terms of scoring. If playing without Kovy has had a negative effect on Enstrom’s PP performance, your graphs won’t show it – yet.

by Zontar on Mar 10, 2010 1:39 PM EST reply actions  

This is the problem. To avoid this, I tried to keep my analysis extremely vague about who was on the ice, other than to say, “more shots does not equal more goals.” You can get into a real mess if you try to analyze it further…

For example, Kubina is more effective when playing as the only D on the PP. (The assumption being… with Kovy.) He got about half his PP points that way despite it being just 1/4 of his PP time. BUT STILL… the unit as a whole was taking LESS SHOTS whether or not Kovalchuk was out there.

I did my best to remove Kovalchuk from the equation, but you’re right: it’ll take time. (Though for future reference, the collapse of the PP started in Nov/Dec when Kovy was still with the team.)

by timmyf on Mar 10, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Enstrom in the Olympics

Didn’t Enstrom score a goal in his first game during the Olympics? I do remember his sister scoring one…

by Black ice in Alabama on Mar 10, 2010 1:43 PM EST reply actions  

I don’t think so. Somebody (I think Denny) looked it up and he only had 1 shot in 4 games.

by timmyf on Mar 10, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Toby did have an assist on the powerplay in his first Olympic game. Enstrom might have only taken one shot, but Sweden used four sets of defensive pairs and played the veterans a little more than the youngsters.

The Kronwall-Lidstrom pair got the most time and it seemed as if Tallinder and Johansson were the de facto 2nd pair.

by Zim! on Mar 10, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

True, but Toby got powerplay time.

He’s just not a shooter… which is okay.

by timmyf on Mar 10, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

The shooting percentage might drop off...

… because of rebounds and our team’s inability to maintain puck possession in the offensive zone. It seems like we kept it in better when we were running our predictable PP, since that required so much passing. Now, with whatever we’re running (last night it looked like a cluster-you know what), we’re giving the opposition more time to manage to clear the puck.

That being said, I am really sick of the people in my section screaming at Enstrom to shoot it, or anyone else for that matter. Sometimes they didn’t shoot when they needed to, yes. But for the most part, it’s really hard to get a shot off when your line to the goal is blocked by 3 people. I like to think that the guys on the ice know what they’re doing mildly better than what I do, or the yokel behind me.

Reporter: There`s a "stamp out the Beatles movement" underway in Detroit. What are you going to do about it?

Paul McCartney: We`re going to start a campaign to stamp out Detroit.

by hildymac on Mar 10, 2010 4:08 PM EST reply actions  

I think since they switched to the Coca Cola ZERO Power Play it has gotten worse (if that is possible). However the name is appropriate. The whole PP is off, I don’t feel we have had the same number of short handed opportunties we had last year and at the beginning of this year.

by thrasherspuck on Mar 10, 2010 4:13 PM EST reply actions  

Reasons People Yell, "SHOOT!"

Ever been to a Braves game and heard fans yell, “C’mon Chipper…Swing the bat!”? Happens pretty much every game. Do you hear other fans say, “Uh…He’s a professional…I think he knows what he’s doing better than you do.”? No. The main reason is because when fans buy a ticket to a sporting event, they have a right to yell pretty much anything (minus obscenities) they want at whoever they want. If we had tape put over our mouths at the entrances, nobody would go anymore.

At Sunday’s game, you probably heard me yell, “SHOOT IT!!!” twice during our PPs (it was definitely quiet enough). I don’t yell it 30 times a game…But when your team takes 4 shots in 20 minutes, a normal fan reaction is to yell at them to shoot the thing. Other teams consistently score on us just by getting the puck in front of the crease on their PPs…While on our PPs, our guys play keep-away and struggle at that even with a man advantage. In fact, Green just scored for the Caps on a PP with 6 guys + Legace between him and the net. That’s one reason they win often.

I’m not saying it’s right or wrong to yell SHOOT! at a Thrasher’s game. But when you go to a hockey game in Atlanta, GA (which ranks somewhere below college football, pro football, pro basketball, college basketball, pro baseball, NASCAR, rasslin’ and deer hunting), you’d better be prepared to hear it or stuff cotton in your ears.

On the analysis, can you really conclude that we’d score less if we shot more? Although not as technical and not factual, if a “team” avgs 10 PP shots per game and avgs 2 PP goals per game, then what would happen if they all of a sudden started taking 20 PP shots per game? Isn’t it reasonable to conclude they would score more than 2 PP goals per game (given ample PP opportunities)? Wouldn’t this be especially true with a team like the Thrashers who are already pretty abysmal when it comes to SCORING on the PP? I certainly don’t see how the Thrashers shooting LESS on the PP could somehow result in MORE PP goals.

The (disproven?) premise seems to be “we don’t score enough on the PP because we don’t shoot enough”. If a ficticious team avgs 2 PP goals for every 10 PP shots (over the course of several games or a season), but only takes 9 PP shots in any given game, then they would be expected to score only 1 goal. By taking that one extra shot in that game, they would be expected to score 2 PP goals that game, which could be the difference. Of course this assumes ample PP opportunities (and not only 1 per game). The next shot could always result in a goal, even if it’s on a rebound. Thus it should always be beneficial over the long term to shoot, shoot, shoot on every PP opportunity until the puck finds the net or time runs out. Teams do this against us all the time and score…Frequently.

by My3(Thrasher)Sons on Mar 10, 2010 9:40 PM EST reply actions  

You’re making one fatal assumption: all shots are not equal. Hainsey blasting away from the point into traffic is not likely to lead to a goal. Enstrom hanging onto the puck for a few seconds looking for a forward to drive to the net could lead to a better quality shot on goal.

I wasn’t trying to make the point “less shots means more goals.” I was trying to make the point “fewer shots of higher quality means more goals.”

by timmyf on Mar 10, 2010 11:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I would add that MORE shots of higher quality means even more goals, and probably more wins. The question I have is: Just who is the most accurate shooter on the PP? I interpret your data to mean Toby picks up points (not goals) by timely, accurate passing. But if he’s passing to Hainsey or Zach, then they aren’t very accurate when shooting. Doesn’t that indicate that the wrong guys are shooting most of the shots and it points to the main reason we aren’t scoring on PPs?

If Toby is the most accurate passer on the PP, then doesn’t it follow that he’d likely be the most accurate shooter too? And if so, then isn’t that precisely the guy you want to start taking more shots given the struggles we’re having? Also, since he’s building a rep as the “pass the puck guy”, doesn’t that mean he should be even more open than the “less accurate” guys?

All I know is something has to change. Since the Kovy trade, we’ve had 41 PP Opps and only scored 5 times. In the past 3 games we haven’t even scored on 10 PP Opps. Say it ain’t so…

by My3(Thrasher)Sons on Mar 11, 2010 12:44 AM EST up reply actions  

And hey, folks are welcome to yell “shoot!” all they want. It’s my (self-appointed) job to take data and the little bit of knowledge I have and try to make a case for something you (not you in particular, but the collective you…) might not have considered.

When I’m successful, it means folks say, “well gosh, I hadn’t thought of that.” When I’m unsuccessful, well, that’s another story…

by timmyf on Mar 10, 2010 11:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

From where I sit, you and Falconer are very good at analysis and provoking deeper thought…I enjoy it!

by My3(Thrasher)Sons on Mar 11, 2010 12:01 AM EST up reply actions  

but what’s toby’s participation rate WITHOUT kovalchuk’s onetimer in the pp? of course it was highest among dmen when kovy was with us, because toby was on the top line right alongside one of the best snipers in the league. im not saying toby’s the only one at fault for a crappy and predictable pp, but there have been plenty of times when he’s had a wide open lane but chose to pass to someone who just ends up losing the puck. so instead of putting pressure on the goalie and creating rebound opportunities, we just pass the puck away. the problem is, NO ONE has assumed kovys role as a sniper on the pp. bogosian comes the closest, but hes extremely inaccurate which ends up hurting the pp even more as the puck curves off the boards often creating SH odd man rushes.

and you think athletes always know better than fans?? why have coaches then? if athlete’s were flawless, then why do they, especially the thrashers of late, make so many mistakes? i think it’s a little misguided to say fans are just being stupid when they think a player should shoot in a wide open lane on the pp even JA has urged toby many times (ive heard him say it a lot) to become more confident shooting, especially when he has great opportunities. I guess JA is just being stupid too though, because toby knows EXACTLY what hes doing.

by dennylambert!! on Mar 10, 2010 10:41 PM EST reply actions  

If there’s a lane, go ahead and shoot. The problem is when there’s no shot. Simply firing the puck into traffic at every opportunity is not an effective strategy.

Look, shots are fun. It’s the exciting part of hockey. I feel frustrated with our powerplay just like everybody else… There ***is*** a problem there, but I don’t believe the problem is “Enstrom doesn’t shoot enough.” This post was my attempt to make that case.

by timmyf on Mar 10, 2010 11:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

part of the problem IS toby doesnt shoot enough in an OPEN lane. i dont think you can deny that. fans dont get angry when toby passes instead of shoots into the skates of a guy 3 feet in front of him. it’s pretty easy to see when a player has an open lane, especially when the other guys are doing their part by stretching the D. we get angry when the open lane is clearly there, and toby et al. dont do anything but pass back waiting for a godot shooter. of course, he never comes. I think toby gets mentioned more than others, because his reluctance to shoot has been an ongoing issue with fans and JA. so yes, the only problem is not Toby doesnt shoot. our pp is flawed in many areas. but the reluctance of several players to shoot on the pp IS one of those flaws imo.

by dennylambert!! on Mar 11, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

But at the same time, he’s setting new franchise records for assists with an (arguably) weaker PP unit. (Weaker than the days of Kovy, Savard, and Hossa…)

He’s obviously doing something right!

by timmyf on Mar 11, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

how many points has he had since kovy left though? he has 4 points in 10 games. in an 82 game season, thats roughly 32 points. just as an example, he had 9 points in 15 games in january. extrapolated, thats over 54 pts. our pp was on fire earlier this season, and toby was racking up the points then, mostly from feeding to kovy. I think we all know toby benefited greatly from playing with kovy on the pp. toby didnt HAVE to shoot, because it was understood that kovy was to take the shot most of the time, and everyone else would try to spread the defense. now that kovy’s gone, someone HAS to shoot and preferably more than one person would feel comfortable enough shooting so our pp would be less predictable. unfortunately, that has to yet to happen.

by dennylambert!! on Mar 11, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

True, but we also have just 29 goals over that span. Kubina’s had 7 points, Oduya 4, Hainsey 3, Bogosian 1. Obviously Kubina’s numbers are a bit inflated (unless you think he could put up almost 60 points in a season). Enstrom is right there in line with the rest of the defense.

Keep in mind, we haven’t had as many powerplay opportunities lately. We’re averaging 4.1 PPs per game over that span with just 5 goals. Over the 10 games before that (with Kovy) we had 46 chances with 4 goals. Over the 10 games before that? 3 goals on 35 chances. The 10 games before that? 9 goals in 37 chances. (If you subtract the Dallas game (3-for-4) we’re still a solid 6-for-33.)

There is a problem with the powerplay. It is unrelated to Kovalchuk (as evidenced by the numbers in the paragraph above.) I also think it is unrelated to Enstrom. It actually started near the end of December.

by timmyf on Mar 11, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

i see what youre saying, but the whole dynamic of the pp has changed now that kovy’s gone. i think the main problem of the pp all year has been it’s ability to gain the zone with guys dumping the puck to no one for example. that applies now, and it applied to when we were struggling under kovy. that’s still a big issue with this pp, but now the few times when we do manage to gain the zone and move the puck around to the point, we dont have a kovy waiting to take a shot. we instead have several indecisive guys who are too reluctant to shoot in an open lane when the opportunity presents itself. i think this bad pp is related to everyone who’s currently seeing time with the advantage, and that definitely includes toby who sees A LOT of time.

by dennylambert!! on Mar 11, 2010 11:56 PM EST reply actions  

I’d say the major problem is a lack of movement.

by timmyf on Mar 12, 2010 12:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

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