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Should The Thrashers Be Buyers or Sellers at Trade Deadline?

Atlanta Thrashers defenseman Pavel Kubina (77) checks Florida Panthers left wing Rostislav Olesz (85), of the Czech Republic, as he gets rid of the puck  during the second period of an NHL hockey game, Saturday, Feb. 6, 2010, in Atlanta. Atlanta won 4-2. (AP Photo/John Amis)

More photos » John Amis - AP

about 1 month ago: Atlanta Thrashers defenseman Pavel Kubina (77) checks Florida Panthers left wing Rostislav Olesz (85), of the Czech Republic, as he gets rid of the puck during the second period of an NHL hockey game, Saturday, Feb. 6, 2010, in Atlanta. Atlanta won 4-2. (AP Photo/John Amis)

I have been a reader of Tyler Dellow's site Mudcrutch79hockey for years now. We share a common interest in bring some statistical analysis to our favorite sport NHL hockey. After the Kovalchuk trade Tyler wrote this piece arguing that in the short run (the current season) trading away Ilya Kovalchuk was a very costly move because it greatly harms the Thrashers chances of making the playoffs. Missing the playoffs costs the organization additional revenue and positive marketing buzz that come with the post-season.

In particular, Tyler references a concept called "marginal points", an argument I first encountered on the site www.baseballprospectus.com. Simply put, the concept goes like this--not all wins are worth the same to a franchise. If it takes 88 points to quality for the post-season (and gain at least two post-season home games worth $2+ million more in revenue) then the last win that pushes a team up from 86 to 88 points is worth far more than a win that takes a team from 84 points to 86 points.  It is worth paying something to gain those last two points.

Now if you're the Atlanta Thrashers management you face an incredibly important question--how many points will your current roster of players win? The answer to that question is enormously important for the franchise. If the Thrashers, without Kovalchuk, are just an 84 point team, then the Thrashers should conduct a fire sale and trade away pending UFAs like Afinogenov, Armstrong, Schubert for picks and prospects that will help the franchise contend for a playoff berth next spring or in the future. Keeping those assets and coming up short of the playoffs would be a big mistake. For example, I thought the team should have dealt Bobby Holik back in the spring of 2008 but they kept him on.

On the other hand, if the Atlanta Thrashers, without Ilya Kovalchuk, are really a 86 point team and the playoffs require just 87-88 points, then the team should think long and hard about dealing some picks, players or prospects to add a scorer like Alexei Ponikarovsky or Ray Whitney.

This is one reason why the next three games before the Olympic Break are simply enormous. The Thrashers looked pretty good in the post-Kovalchuk loss to Washington and win against Florida. How they fare against some quality teams out West will be a good measuring stick for what this roster can do.

Waddell has mentioned the favorable home schedule in March--which is nice--but games don't win themselves. Almost every team they face will be desperate and nobody is going to roll over and give away 2 points just because they're in Philips Arena. The favorable home schedule only matters if the TEAM is competitive without Kovalchuk.

It is very tough to make an assessment of the Thrashers future based on 5 post-Kovalchuk games. Life is not fair and that is exactly the task before Waddell, Dudley and Anderson. The Trade Deadline is March 2nd and Atlanta needs to know if they are buyers or sellers when trade talks are fast and furious after the Olympics.

After last night's games, Club Sport Stats put the Thrashers playoff odds at 36%. Right now it looks like 87 points is the Threshold to qualify for the post-season. This is an unusually low target number in the post-lockout NHL, but the East is so competitive this season and the teams have not really spread out as they usually do by this time of the year.

To get a sense of just how precarious things things are look at the table below. Club Sports Stats projects that 6th place will require 91 points and the Thrashers would need to go 16-8-1 to hit that number so their odds of doing so are just 9%. On the other hand, 8th place will likely require 87 points and a Thrasher record of 14-10-1 the rest of the way and the odds are slightly better than 1 in 3 that Atlanta could do that.

 

East Rank Odds Win  Losses OTL Point Projection Odds
6th 7% 16 8 1 91 9%
7th 12% 15 9 1 89 21%
8th 15% 14 10 1 87 36%
9th 17% 14 11 0 86 53%
10th 15% 13 11 1 85 68%
11th 12% 13 12 0 84 80%

 

And now we see how this short three Western Conference road trip becomes so CRITICAL for the Thrashers. If they were to get zero points in those three contests, that would require the team to run off an insane run of 14-7-1 record after the Olympics. If the Thrashers get just 2 points, then they would need a daunting 13-8-1 run which is slighty better. If the Thrashers were to manage to scrap up 4 out of 6 possible points that gives them a much better shot post-Olympics of pulling off a 12-9-1 record need to make the playoffs.

Conclusion: The Thrashers organization will have to make some big decisions about whether to buy or sell at the deadline. The final three games before the break could make one of these options much more likely depending upon how the team performs.

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In Defense of John Anderson

Feb 2010 by timmyf - 15 comments

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I had this exact conversation with a fellow STH at the last game

My conclusion: we needed 5 or 6 points in the next three to consider ourselves buyers. Good luck, Thrashers!

by timmyf on Feb 9, 2010 7:57 AM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

I’m with you. We’ll know after this week what path the Thrashers should take at the deadline. I think they can be sellers and maintain their odds of making the playoffs. Trading Armstrong and replacing him with Machacek (and Cormier next year assuming he doesn’t kill anyone between now and then), trading Kari/Moose for a prospect/draft pick, and moving Kozlov (if he waives his NTC) and replacing him with just about anybody, and possibly moving Kubina and replacing him with Kulda, Lehman, or Denny. The Kubina trade is the riskiest but if the Thrashers are winless this week…. who cares.

by SilverRubicon on Feb 9, 2010 8:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think we should throw buyer out of the question

I hope we are sellers, I’d rather move towards building a powerhouse in the next 3-4 years then a marginal contender this year. This team has a lot of holes as it stands and even though it’s nice to take a few million in revenue from making the playoffs, I seriously doubt our ability to make a deep playoff run with the addition of Whitney or Ponikarovsky.

by Cracker! on Feb 9, 2010 8:11 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

If Kubina, Armstrong and Afinogenov don’t want to re-sign they should probably be traded. I wasn’t excited about Schubert coming here to begin with. It would be fine with me if he was traded. I think that Kozlov has earned the right to leave if that’s what he wants. He signed here 3 years ago for less than Dallas offered and while that really has not been a good deal overall for the Thrashers, still, I feel that he’s paid his dues and should be traded if he wants that. I was not at Saturday’s game, but with the scoresheet reporting that he played only 10 minutes, it would seem that Slava does not fit into the Thrashers’ current plans and he might as well go to a team where he could at least play.

Whitney seems to have something left, but at his age he’s not going to be part of the future here and it would be a waste of resources to bring him here. I’d rather see the team consider Ponikarovsky as a free agent signing than to give up anything worthwhile to get him now.

by Zontar on Feb 9, 2010 8:25 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I was firmly in the “Sell” camp the day Kovalchuk was traded. After seeing the last 2 games, I want more data before making a decision.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Feb 9, 2010 8:36 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Seller

Agreed that the next 3 games are pivotal. The thing that I do disagree with are that Club Sports Stats may be slightly off on their calculations. Currently with 58 points in 59 games the team would project to 84 points, if they continue with that same winning percentage. History has shown the past 3 seasons that it will take 92 points to take 8th place, or the final playoff spot. My belief is that this season will be almost the same, and that it will take 91/92 points to take that final spot.
Reason being, one or two teams are going to break out of the current pack and finish the season with a winning streak.
But with the final 5 games being against Washington, Pitt., NJ, Wash. & Pitt. in that order, I just don’t believe that we have much of a chance to be on a winning streak. Possible, yes. Probable, No. If Club Sports Stats are close to accurate, we would have less than a 9% chance to achieve 91 points.
To reach 91 points we would have to go 16-8-1, which is a 64% winning percentage. San Jose Sharks win percentage is 66%.
Can we become San Jose for the next 25 games?
If we win are 3-0 for the next 3 games, I guess that it would be a close call. But I’m afraid that the odds are against us. Maybe better to sell and collect assets for next year.
Sounds familar doesn’t it. Wait until next year.

by Tween the Pipes on Feb 9, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Buyer

Making the playoffs without Kovalchuk would be a statement victory from our young team and build atleast some additional fan enthusiam for the future.

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Feb 9, 2010 8:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sell

Of DW’s biggest mistakes (whether influenced by ownership or not), holding those ufas in 2008 was among the worst, in my opinion. I’d hate to see the same mistake made now.

I think you’re absolutely right on this one, Falconer. The road trip will determine the rest of this season, whether we or the team like it or not. These are huge games.

by Jarndyce on Feb 9, 2010 9:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I am alright with going a midway on this, if we have players that do not want to resign with us, maybe we should trade them…but players like Kubina, that DW hinted may be resigned, and make a large difference for this team, I think we should keep…and if we can take some of Chicago’s salary cap dump that they’ll do before the trade deadline or during the summer…I think we need to do our best to be on the receiving end of that deal (depending on the players of course).

by Ferkahn on Feb 9, 2010 9:05 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Don't go halfway

My biggest problem with Waddell is his constant “half measures.” We get rid of Hossa/Kovy but want to bring in plays to “help us make the playoffs now.”

Make a decision and stick to it. Either buy or sell and I agree with Falconer, the next 3 games should determine which to do. 4+ = buyer. If we can get 4 from those 3 teams, we can compete in the East.

by BG33Brown on Feb 9, 2010 9:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If we believe we can resign a quality player (Kubina) then we should have DW chatting with their agent between now and the end of the Olympics and get to the real feasibility of doing so. Those we think we can keep and want to build with should stay.

If players are expiring and we can’t/don’t want to keep them we should move them for guys we do want to build with over the next 2 years. They should not be trade bait for a different rental player who might help us make the playoffs to get swept in the first round again.

I haven’t looked up our record against the teams we would face in the first round of the playoffs if we did make it, but I suspect that suggests advancing as a long shot. We can’t risk a shot at a real chance next season for a maybe make it to just get swept shot this season.

by godsendjen on Feb 9, 2010 9:57 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

“If we believe we can resign a quality player (Kubina) then we should have DW chatting with their agent between now and the end of the Olympics and get to the real feasibility of doing so.”

 That is what was referenced in Falconer’s post about the STH meeting.

“Q What about other UFAs on the roster? Waddell: We’re been pretty busy with Kovalchuk thing and have possible goalie trade coming up. Kubina—we plan to begin talks with his agent during Olympic break. [After session was over I asked Waddell if they would re-sign Kubina if it meant having 5 quality D who make all make some $? He said yes and he was hopeful that an extension could be worked out.]”

by Ferkahn on Feb 9, 2010 10:13 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Look at what you have and look at what may be available and do what is best for the ‘long term’ direction of your team. If it means dropping 4 or dropping 2 and adding 2 or adding 4, do it with a vision of the future.

And by future I mean looking past Ash Wednesday.

by TheBrickwall on Feb 9, 2010 10:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

You left out one pending UFA-Johan Hedberg-of dubious trade value but absolutely crucial to whether the Thrashers have a chance to make the playoffs.

There’s an interesting parallel between this year and the last time Hedberg was the # 1 goalie on a playoff contender, 2001-2 with Pittsburgh. That was also an Olympic year (not terribly important, I don’t think) and the Pens were the post-Jagr trade Pens, they had made the playoffs the year before, their defense was about the same (not very good) but they had fallen off quite a bit offensively as you might expect. Anyway, a week before the Olympic break they were in 10th place, only 4 points out of the top 8 with a game in hand over Montreal (8th). Hedberg had been a important part of their success-he had 6 shutouts before the Olympic break and a .911 sv pct.

Let’s hope the rest of the story is not the same this year: the Pens lost all four games before the Olympic break and spiralled out of contention with only 16 points in their final 28 games. Hedberg had an .887 sv pct and no shutouts.

No one deserves more credit than Hedberg who has made an astounding turnaround and either revived his career or can go into retirement with his best numbers ever. For his sake, I hope he can hold the fort in these next crucial games.

by Big Picture Guy on Feb 9, 2010 10:40 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thank you for posting that. That was very interesting and I did not know any of that.

by Zontar on Feb 9, 2010 2:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

BUY

Worrying about 88 pts. or whatever is not what we need to look at….We’re a point out right now. We have a bunch of picks and a couple UFA’s that might not want to come back. I understand that pick are real valuable to a franchise like the Thrash, but we also just picked up a rookie and blue chip prospect. I think that makes a pick or two expendable in order to grab a scorer for the last stretch. There is something like 23 games in March/April, most of which are at home. Lets go for it! We still have plenty of pieces in place (and cap space for UFA’s) for a bright future regardless.

by Whalers on Feb 9, 2010 11:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I’ll have to wait until the Olympic break to make a decision on whether to buy or sell for sure but right now I’m leaning sell. Unless DW is dead certain that a player can be resigned, every effort needs to be made to get the maximum return for him. True, we have some good pieces but we need more. I think that trading away “extra” picks or prospects in order to squeeze into the playoffs this season would be a mistake and would only add to future mediocrety.

by Pfloyd75 on Feb 9, 2010 12:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I should make a poll

looks like opinion is pretty split on this.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Feb 9, 2010 3:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

SELL

seeing how we prolly wont come up with a win in April (twice vs PITT, twice vs WASH, and once vs NJ), and we’ll most likely get 2 pts out of 10 at BEST, I think it would be foolish to pretend we can make the playoffs. Even if we do make it, is it really going to be a morale boost to the team and fans to be swept again?? We’re just not a team ready for the playoffs, and acquiring a Whitney or someone else isn’t going to turn the tables against teams like Wash. and Pitt. I agree with what someone else said in here about making a decision and sticking with it. We traded kovalchuk to get young guys and assets for the future in exchange for greatly hurting our playoff chances. Now lets continue that strategy and wait for better seasons to come, instead of going the Tkachuk route.

by dennylambert!! on Feb 9, 2010 7:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

4 out of 6 it is in the end.
not bad, but thinking with a bit of luck it really could have been 6 out of 6 is painful.

by profan on Feb 13, 2010 11:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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