In Case You Were Feeling Better About the Thrashers

by timmyf on Feb 2, 2010 11:09 AM EST in Analysis Comment 7 comments

Thrashers fans should be feeling a little more optimistic in January. The team is playing much better than they did in December, but I'm still concerned it's not enough. Just a quick reminder: the most important predictor of a team's final position in the standings is goal differential.

Here's a graph for that...

The Thrashers are -9 on the year... which isn't too terrible. This season, in fact, that might get them into the playoffs (thanks to the West's absolute dominance over the East). The only problem? They are -7 in January. If they keep playing like they have in January, they'll fall further and further down that curve.

Right now, it's hard to look at the standings. With the tight bunch between spots 7 and 13, the standings will get mixed up day-by-day. Here at BWA, we'll try to tie you into some longer-term trends.

Poll

Goal Differential is...

Good to look at, but I'm not concerned about the Thrashers.

3 votes

Good to look at and bothering me a bit.

30 votes

Not as important as you're making it out to be.

5 votes

Irrelevant. I'm concerned about the Thrashers for a variety of reasons.

13 votes

MOAR BLOGZ ABOUT KOVALCHOOK PLZ!!!

28 votes

79 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 7 comments |

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Comments

Two other quick notes I should have put in the post

A 2nd-order poly hits R2 of 0.911. Increasing orders do a smidge better, but not statistically significant.

Somebody might mention – and perhaps should – if you ignore the Washington game, they’re even in January. I would counter that, if you ignore the Washington and Ottawa games, they’re back at -5. -5 for the month is really just as bad as -7: both trends would mean no playoffs.

by timmyf on Feb 2, 2010 11:23 AM EST reply actions

Also, I was under the impression everybody was tired of hearing about Kovalchuk. What, exactly, are we supposed to write?

by timmyf on Feb 2, 2010 11:39 AM EST reply actions

just a quick response to that. last night on the penguins channel (versus), Dregger was talking about how re-signing with the thrashers was still a very attractive alternative for Ilya and the organization. This was interesting, because not only is the most recent insider news I’ve heard, but it’s the first in a while I’ve heard of that option still on the table and being a good one for both parties.

This also points to how that Philly article was completely bogus. Some sloppy reporting there for sure.

by dennylambert!! on Feb 2, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

And that’s exactly why we haven’t said much about it here. It’s all rumors and conjecture.

by timmyf on Feb 2, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions

Surprisingly I have no idea at all what this “Philly article” that you refer to was about. All sports have rumor mongering to a certain extent. It’s just the absolute worst in the NHL. One of CNN/SI’s best baseball writers has followers on Twitter and his tweets are terrible. All he does is pass along one unsubstantiated rumor after another. His columns are very good, but his tweets? Worthless. So it’s not a shock to me that someone might have written some sort of bogus article about Kovy.

Whatever happens, I don’t think Kovy will be traded prior to the Olympics. I find it hard to believe that any team will make a trade knowing that if he gets hurt in the Olympics they got nothing. My guess is that both parties will think long and hard about this during the Olympics and the real deadline will be March 1. If Kovy hasn’t signed by then, he’ll be shopped to the highest bidder starting on March 2. I expect no trades by the Thrashers prior to the Olympics unless maybe someone wants Kozlov and he agrees to waive his no trade clause.

by Zontar on Feb 2, 2010 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

pfloyd posted it after the philly win:

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/flyers/20100129_Don_t_count_on_Flyers_making_trade_for_Atlanta_s_Kovalchuk.html

made the claim that kovy was done talking to atlanta with no quote from Kovy, Grossman, or DW.

by dennylambert!! on Feb 2, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

here it is

“Kovalchuk is slated to become an unrestricted free agent July 1 and said he is finished negotiating a possible extension with the Thrashers, who have made the playoffs just once in franchise history.”

by dennylambert!! on Feb 2, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

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Southeast Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
Washington Japers' Rink	82	54	15	13	121
Atlanta Bird Watchers Anonymous	82	35	34	13	83
Carolina Canes Country	82	35	37	10	80
Tampa Bay Raw Charge	82	34	36	12	80
Florida Litter Box Cats	82	32	37	13	77

(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)

Thrashers Schedule

Next 5 Games

Columbus The Cannon	Tue 09/21	7:00 PM EDT
Carolina Canes Country	Sat 09/25	7:00 PM EDT
@ Nashville On the Forecheck	Mon 09/27	8:00 PM EDT
Nashville On the Forecheck	Wed 09/29	7:00 PM EDT
@ Carolina Canes Country	Fri 10/01	1:30 PM EDT

Last 5 Games

Pittsburgh PensBurgh	Sat 04/10	W 1 - 0
@ Washington Japers' Rink	Fri 04/09	L 2 - 5
New Jersey In Lou We Trust	Tue 04/06	L 0 - 3
@ Pittsburgh PensBurgh	Sat 04/03	OT - L 3 - 4
@ Washington Japers' Rink	Thu 04/01	L 1 - 2

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