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Who is Getting Ice Time After Kovalchuk Trade?

For 8 years Ilya Kovalchuk received a huge amount of ice time from Coaches Fraser, Hartley, Waddell and Anderson. Many years Kovalchuk led all NHL forwards in Even Strength ice time, Power Play ice time and Average Ice Time per Game. With the departure of Kovalchuk and Salmela, Coach Anderson has quite a few minutes to dole out to his roster. What has he done in this situation?

I went back through the game logs and pulled out the data for the three games since Ilya was traded. I also decided to pull out the 7 games when Ilya was injured early in the season. This allows a peek at how Anderson is distributing minutes with Kovalchuk in the lineup, when Kovalchuk was injured and after Kovalchuk departed.

Star-divide

First up we have the even strength minutes (see table below). As you can see Bergfors is receiving many fewer Even Strength minutes than Ilya did. So who is benefiting most from the new allocation? The former checking line of Slater, Reasoner and Thorburn. That line has been broken up and mixed into the rest of the roster. Without Ilya Kovalchuk, Coach Anderson has turned the Thrashers into a genuine four line team at Even Strength. Every player falls somewhere between 13 and 8 minutes. Bryan Little has been scoring more lately--but it is not because Anderson is throwing tons of ice time at him. The Antro-Little-Bergfors line has fairly modest ES minutes, they are simply making the most of their minutes.

Now let's take a look at the defenseman. It's no knock on Anssi Salmela but Johnny Oduya is a significantly better NHL defender and he is getting many minutes. How has the ice time changed with the swap of Oduya for Salmela? Bogosian has seen his minutes cut back more than anyone, but all 5 top defenders are getting about the same amount of playing time. It could be that Anderson is still experimenting to see who plays with whom.

 

Defense ES TOI w Kovy ES TOI Kovy injured
ES TOI Post Kovy Change
Zach Bogosian  17.6 19.0 14.7 -2.9
Pavel Kubina  16.7 16.5 16.5 -0.2
Ron Hainsey 16.3 15.4 16.2 0.0
Tobias Enstrom 16.1 17.0 16.5 0.4
Christoph Schubert 12.8 14.9
Anssi Salmela 12.7 13.9
Boris Valabik  11.6 0.0

Mark Popovic  10.6 12.1 10.9 0.2
Johnny Oduya 15.4 15.4
Forwards ES TOI w Kovy ES TOI Kovy injured
ES TOI Post Kovy Change
Ilya Kovalchuk  16.8 2.1 -16.8
Nik Antropov  14.4 14.1 12.4 -2.0
Maxim Afinogenov  13.5 14.9 11.4 -2.2
Bryan Little  12.2 12.3 11.4 -0.9
Rich Peverley  12.0 14.5 10.3 -1.7
Evander Kane  12.0 13.3 12.7 0.7
Colby Armstrong  11.4 11.5 11.9 0.6
Todd White  11.2 12.7 8.9 -2.3
Vyacheslav Kozlov  11.2 12.5 9.9 -1.3
Jim Slater  9.1 9.3 12.8 3.7
Marty Reasoner  8.1 11.4 9.8 1.6
Chris Thorburn 7.1 8.0 8.9 1.8
Eric Boulton 6.5 7.4 8.3 1.8
Nicklas Bergfors  11.9 11.9

 

Kovalchuk was a dominant figure on the Thrashers power play for nearly a decade. Sometimes the team appeared too focused on getting him the puck to the point that other players declined open shooting opportunities. The departure of Ilya has really opened the door for the Thrashers puck moving defenseman to demonstrate their offensive skills. Enstrom's minutes have declined slightly in the last three games while Kubina, Bogosian and Hainsey have all seen a jump in their minutes. Curiously, Maxim Afinogenov and Colby Armstrong have seen a big uptick in minutes. I was VERY surprised to see that Evander Kane and Nicklas Bergfors are getting almost no ice time with the man advantage. Personally, I'd rather see the young talent get a crack at playing with the man advantage.

Player PP TOI w Kovy PP TOI Kovy injured
PP TOI Post Kovy Change
Ilya Kovalchuk  5.7 1.8
-5.7
Tobias Enstrom 4.8 4.6 4.1 -0.7
Nik Antropov  3.6 3.5 2.7 -0.8
Viacheslav Kozlov  3.5 3.6 3.0 -0.5
Rich Peverley  3.1 3.9 3.0 -0.1
Bryan Little  3.0 3.3 2.5 -0.5
Maxim Afinogenov  2.8 4.0 4.1 1.3
Todd White  2.6 3.9 1.7 -0.9
Pavel Kubina  1.6 3.6 3.9 2.3
Colby Armstrong  0.8 0.4 1.5 0.8
Zach Bogosian  0.7 4.1 2.2 1.5
Ron Hainsey 0.2 3.2 2.2 2.0
Evander Kane  0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5
Niclas Bergfors  0.2 0.2

 

Kovalchuk never played on the PK with any regularity, but just for fun let's take a look at the PK unit post-Kovalchuk. The thing that really jumps out is that a) the Thrashers have been killing a lot lately and b) Oduya and Kubina are effectively killing off 3 penalties by themselves every game! With a sharp increase in PK minutes Rich Peverley, Jim Slater and Todd White are getting more turns in the PK rotation. There is a lot of data that shows Slater is not a very effective PKer so the Thrashers need to cut down on the penalties against before it bites them.

 

Player SH TOI w Kovy SH TOI Kovy injured
SH TOI Post Kovy Change
Ron Hainsey 3.6 3.5 5.7 2.1
Johnny Oduya 5.2 5.2
Marty Reasoner  3.1 3.0 4.2 1.1
Pavel Kubina  2.9 2.7 4.1 1.2
Mark Popovic  1.4 2.2 3.3 1.9
Rich Peverley  2.4 1.7 3.0 0.6
Todd White  0.7 0.3 2.7 2.0
Chris Thorburn 2.1 2.3 2.6 0.5
Colby Armstrong  2.0 1.7 2.5 0.5
Jim Slater  1.6 0.9 2.5 0.9
Zach Bogosian  2.9 1.9 2.1 -0.7
Boris Valabik  1.9 0.0 1.4 -0.5
Evander Kane  1.2 1.1 1.2 0.0
Tobias Enstrom 0.5 0.7 0.3 -0.2
Christoph Schubert 2.2 2.0

 

Conclusion

After the Kovalchuk/Salmela trade Don Waddell mentioned the potential for the Thrashers to become a different kind of team. Under Coach Anderson they have become a true four line team at Even Strength. The defenseman are much more involved both on the power play and on the PK with a recent rash of short handed situations.

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The idea of the kids getting more PP time makes sense. What is really surprising is White is still getting PP time (even though it is down) while Berfors and Kane are getting next to none.

Kane has shown 5 on 5 that he is capable of handling the puck in tight spaces and is a good passer. Bergfors comes from a enviroment that has always completed the short pass in traffic well. It would seem these two could really benefit the PP and considering both are willing to shoot which at times is a problem with this unit it makes sense for both to get a larger percentage of the available PP time.

by Thrashfan01 on Feb 12, 2010 4:08 PM EST reply actions  

Anderson said that Bergfors wouldn’t see PP time until he had a chance to practice with the squad more. After all, why change what is obviously working so well? (That’s sarcasm, folks).

So it only took 3 games to decide that Oduya is “significantly better” than Salmela? Mind if I bring that one up in the future if it comes back to bite you, Falconer? Salmela was more abused than used here and I’d argue that he was never given a chance to show what he could do, being on Anderson’s crap list most of the time. Everybody in ATL seems ready to jump on the Oduya bandwagon and all I can say is that it’s still early and I need more than 3 games’ evidence before I’m sold on him. It seems that I am the only person who remembers everyone being all gaga about the Hossa trade early on too and how so many people had to eat those words in the next season.

by Zontar on Feb 12, 2010 4:34 PM EST reply actions  

It is in print so mock away. Oduya had two very solid seasons with the Devils before this so-so year.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Feb 12, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions  

its good to see todd white having decreased toi in pp and es, although he shouldnt be on the pp period you should earn your time in the pp and the only thing todd white has earned is to be a healthy scratch. kane deserves more pp time and i hope he gets it, because hes been one of our consistently better players this season and he hustles his ass off every game.

by dennylambert!! on Feb 12, 2010 5:08 PM EST reply actions  

Chicago trades Barker

that will limit our chances for a Chicago trade. However, Poni is still looking like a good option.

by dennylambert!! on Feb 12, 2010 5:09 PM EST reply actions  

Chicago still need to clear $7 million off this summer, they’re not done yet.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Feb 12, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions  

yeh but after every trade they make, our chances decrease. we better hurry before theyre all gone.

by dennylambert!! on Feb 12, 2010 6:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Barker isn't the Droid you're looking for...

We have depth (and salary) at D, especially if Kubina is extended. It is the forward position that will be lacking once Kozlov, Armstrong and Afinogenov come off the books. If we had just missed out on Versteeg, Ladd or Byfuglien it would be more of a concern. Barker makes almost as much money as Oduya and had been playing 3rd pairing minutes—so I’m not crying over this trade.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Feb 12, 2010 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Why is everyone so excited about the 30 year-old Ponikarovsky?

He’s an underachieving 1st line 20 goal scorer. Am I missing something?

by Pogue Mahon on Feb 13, 2010 8:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Figuring out how to organize a team post-Kovalchuk is going to be the Great Experiment for the Thrashers.

by ThrashersRecaps on Feb 12, 2010 5:56 PM EST reply actions  

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