0vermars popped this up as a fanshot, and I thought it deserved front page. - aaron
The surprising domination of Washington last night got me thinking. Following the loss last night the Capitals dropped to 14-5-1. The Thrashers are responsible for 40% of their losses having gone 2-1-1 against the league’s current point leaders.
As the team hits the quarter pole for the season and we’ve played 20% of our games against league’s best I was curious what our strength of schedule (SOS) has been. As we all know its not who you play but when you play them.
To calculate my SOS I’ve taken a look at every game played to date this season through last night, 11/19. I’ve simply looked at today’s standings and applied it to every team’s opponents. I’ve averaged the wins, losses, and overtime losses and extrapolated out based on 2 points for a win and 1 for an extra time loss.
As an example here is the Thrashers schedule:
|
Date |
Opp |
Score |
|
|
Opp W |
Opp L |
Opp OL |
|
|
8-Oct |
Was |
4-2 |
w |
|
14 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
9-Oct |
@TB |
3-5 |
l |
|
10 |
7 |
2 |
|
|
12-Oct |
@LA |
1-3 |
l |
|
12 |
6 |
0 |
|
|
15-Oct |
@ANA |
5-4* |
w |
|
10 |
9 |
3 |
|
|
16-Oct |
@SJ |
4-2 |
w |
|
9 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
20-Oct |
BUF |
1-4 |
l |
|
8 |
10 |
3 |
|
|
22-Oct |
TB |
2-5 |
l |
|
10 |
7 |
2 |
|
|
23-Oct |
@WAS |
3-4* |
otl |
|
14 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
27-Oct |
@NYR |
6-4 |
w |
|
10 |
9 |
1 |
|
|
29-Oct |
BUF |
4-3* |
w |
|
8 |
10 |
3 |
|
|
30-Oct |
@STL |
3-4* |
otl |
|
10 |
5 |
3 |
|
|
3-Nov |
@FLA |
4-3 |
w |
|
8 |
9 |
0 |
|
|
4-Nov |
CLB |
0-3 |
l |
|
11 |
6 |
0 |
|
|
6-Nov |
CHI |
4-5* |
otl |
|
10 |
10 |
2 |
|
|
9-Nov |
@OTT |
2-5 |
l |
|
9 |
10 |
1 |
|
|
11-Nov |
MIN |
5-1 |
w |
|
10 |
6 |
2 |
|
|
13-Nov |
PIT |
2-4 |
l |
|
11 |
8 |
2 |
|
|
14-Nov |
@WAS |
4-6 |
l |
|
14 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
17-Nov |
FLA |
1-2 |
l |
|
8 |
9 |
0 |
|
|
19-Nov |
WAS |
5-0 |
w |
|
14 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
210 |
146 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.50 |
7.30 |
1.60 |
22.60 |
The Thrashers opponents have a strength of schedule points rating of 22.60. How does this compare with the rest of the league?
|
|
Opponents Average |
|
|
|
|
|
Win |
Loss |
OTL |
Pts |
|
Nashville |
10.29 |
6.94 |
2.06 |
22.65 |
|
Atlanta |
10.5 |
7.3 |
1.6 |
22.6 |
|
Islanders |
10.44 |
7.22 |
1.5 |
22.39 |
|
St Louis |
9.83 |
7.06 |
2.28 |
21.94 |
|
Columbus |
9.76 |
7.41 |
2.18 |
21.71 |
|
Phoenix |
9.95 |
6.95 |
1.74 |
21.63 |
|
New Jersey |
9.79 |
7.58 |
1.95 |
21.53 |
|
Carolina |
9.68 |
7.37 |
1.95 |
21.32 |
|
Ottawa |
9.6 |
7.25 |
2.05 |
21.25 |
|
Boston |
9.65 |
7.82 |
1.94 |
21.24 |
|
Anaheim |
9.5 |
6.59 |
2.14 |
21.14 |
|
Tampa Bay |
9.42 |
7.37 |
2.21 |
21.05 |
|
Calgary |
9.28 |
6.56 |
2.44 |
21 |
|
Dallas |
9.35 |
7.47 |
2.29 |
21 |
|
Colorado |
9.63 |
7 |
1.68 |
20.95 |
|
Buffalo |
9.67 |
8.14 |
1.57 |
20.9 |
|
Pittsburgh |
9.38 |
7.48 |
2.1 |
20.86 |
|
Vancouver |
9.5 |
7.89 |
1.67 |
20.67 |
|
Philadelphia |
9.45 |
8.1 |
1.75 |
20.65 |
|
Minnesota |
9.39 |
7.39 |
1.83 |
20.61 |
|
Edmonton |
9.39 |
7.67 |
1.72 |
20.5 |
|
Detroit |
8.88 |
7.41 |
2.59 |
20.35 |
|
Toronto |
9.39 |
8.11 |
1.56 |
20.33 |
|
Los Angeles |
8.89 |
7.61 |
2.06 |
19.83 |
|
Chicago |
8.68 |
7.5 |
2.32 |
19.68 |
|
San Jose |
9 |
8.11 |
1.56 |
19.56 |
|
Rangers |
8.65 |
8.25 |
2.2 |
19.5 |
|
Florida |
8.71 |
7.94 |
1.94 |
19.35 |
|
Washington |
8.65 |
8.25 |
2.05 |
19.35 |
|
Montreal |
8.53 |
8.32 |
2.05 |
19.11 |
Thanks to facing the caps 4 times and zero games against early season strugglers (Isles, Devils, Oilers, Leafs) the Thrashers have seen the 2nd toughest schedule to date.
Considering they integrating a new coaching staff, system, roster, locker room leadership regime, goaltenders dropping on the ice and playing a tough early season schedule I’m encouraged about the Thrashers prospects for the season moving forward.
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