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Would You Pay $10 Million a Year for this Defense?

Your team is mired in a 8 game losing streak.

You're the captain.

In a tie game you hustle back to make sure that a 3-2 becomes a 3-3 and then...

Watch #17 closely on this video clip.


Pause it at the 4 second mark and you can see three Thrashers skating back hard (including #17).

Pause it at the 5 second mark and you can see just two Thrashers skating back hard (not including #17).

Pause it at the 9 second mark and you can see that Kovalchuk chooses not to body check or even bother pressuring the puck carrier, but curls away from the play and completely disappears from the picture!!!

This creates a 2 on 1 down low for Kubina who steps up on the puck carrier leaving a surprised Enstrom who isn't sure if he should rotate to the side of the crease or defend the man in the slot. Indecision leads to a wide open Jordan Staal who scores to break a 1-1 tie.

Now watch the clip of the Letang Goal that gave Pittsburgh a 1-0 lead.


In this case the puck carrier tried to carry it past Ilya on the boards--and this Kovalchuk did check the guy--slightly better. But look at what Ilya does right after the body check. The Penguins still retain possession of the puck. Kovalchuk curls towards the boards so he is open to break out down the ice.  Every smart player knows that when your opponent has they puck you should put your stick and body between your man the net--yet Ilya does exactly the opposite. Instead, he habitually curls away from the puck when the other team has possession and fails to help his club win possession back. He does the minimum and just hopes another Thrasher will win the puck and pass it to him as he waits on along the boards.

And that my friends is exactly why I would never offer Ilya Kovalchuk $10-11 million per year to re-sign. Don Waddell ought to email these "highlights" clip to Jay Grossman. Defense is half of the hockey game. In a critical moment you can't count on Ilya Kovalchuk to do the minimum inside his own blueline. These are the little mistakes that will kill a team in a hard fought seven game playoff series. Last night was an important game for the Thrashers season. Ilya Kovalchuk didn't score, but he certainly helped Pittsburgh win the game.

This is nothing new, it has been happening for years in Atlanta. If Kovalchuk played in Toronto, Calgary or Montreal the press would rip him to shreds for this stuff. And his agent wants him to become the highest paid player in hockey? Good grief. He's a great scorer who plays lousy defense--and he should be paid accordingly.

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Exactly.

I am so glad that I’m finally not the only one to notice this type of crap during games. I was just talking to my roommate about this earlier.

GOOD MORNING SIR, DEFENSE IS NOT JUST A RESPONSIBILITY FOR TWO PEOPLE ON THE ICE WITH THAT POSITION IN THEIR TITLE. You’re not worth the letters on your jersey until you demonstrate that you understand its significance in modern NHL hockey.

I used to support this team no matter what, but I’m now three seaons into getting to the point where you either put up or you shut up. I don’t have the spare capital anymore to support something that’s just going to make me homicidally disgruntled game after game because nothing is ever REALLY addressed, only half-assed patched.

Call me names for this type of talk if you like… you can STFU unless you’re willing to donate some of your paycheck to me to pay for such an extracurriciular expenditure. I have more pressing (and interesting, as well) things to attend to financially than a hockey franchise that apparently could give a shit less what it does with itself. (ha… I think this is the third year in a row that I’ve stated at much. I’m surprised I’ve lasted this long. If it were in SJS it’d be pathetic… in ATL its just saddening).

by haymaker on Jan 6, 2010 3:20 AM EST reply actions  

Agreed

He is a pure goal scorer… he’s also pure at letting goals go in his own net. That ain’t hockey. I blame his coaches when he was a youth.

His plus/minus says it all about how one-sided a player he is. As of today, he’s a “0” plus/minus. So if that holds up for the rest of the year, he’s asking for 10m a year to deliver a “net zero” goal differential. Awesome.

1961 is a long time ago.

by HawkJaw on Jan 6, 2010 7:15 AM EST reply actions  

That’s not quite accurate. Net zero on this team is a lot better than net zero on the Caps or Sharks, for example.

by Bonzai on Jan 10, 2010 5:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Much like Marian Hossa, he seems to have slipped into some other hockey dimension as contract negotiations proceed. We all know what he’s capable of defensively as he was very sound prior to his injury and played well after being named captain last year. Maybe signing a deal would correct his defensive liabilities, but for how long? I hate to lose him, but I think it’s time to part ways.

by SilverRubicon on Jan 6, 2010 7:42 AM EST reply actions  

No excuses

He is just looking to make the highlight reels with breakaways. He’s selfish and you know what….Ilya, I use to love you, but F*** you.

What can we get for him? I won’t say we got completely hosed in the Hossa deal, but this is different. Dealing the face of the franchise (who doesn’t care that much about the franchise obviously) has to net us something big in return.

by Cracker! on Jan 6, 2010 8:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m not saying that there is not a point to what you say Falconer, but unless you have rock solid proof that Kovy is actually asking for $10+ million a season, that’s just speculation. Neither you nor I know what he is asking for nor do we know what he has been offered. I’m honest enough to admit it.

The whole Kovy situation comes down to this – do the owners have a commitment to this team or do they not. For those of you who think that once Kovy is traded everything will magically improve with this team and organization, well, I wish you an awful lot of luck with that one.

by Zontar on Jan 6, 2010 8:12 AM EST reply actions  

I don’t think that Falconer – nor just about anybody else – really thinks that the Thrashers can see short-term improvement by trading Kovalchuk. The concern is our long-term ability to sign key players. If Kovy is making that much money, it means a couple $4 million potential players are $2-$3 million guys instead.

We pass on Antropov and sign a Glen Metropolit type. That sort of thing.

In addition, if teams are willing to part with solid players for Kovy, that may be something we need to evaluate. Clearly this team is missing some pieces.

by timmyf on Jan 6, 2010 8:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I don’t want to get into an endless cycle of debates here, but
1) You are expecting an organization that has never proven its commitment to hockey to suddenly “get it”. When Bogo, Kane, Enstrom hit unrestricted free agency and are allowed to leave, let me know if you still think that the owners are being wise with their money.
2) Is the team REALLY better if we have 2 Antropovs and 0 Kovys? I find that debatable. Plus you are assuming that they really will be interested in 2 Antropovs. I’m not sure that they will.

by Zontar on Jan 6, 2010 10:37 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t have rock solid proof he’s asking $10 million, but consider this. When talks are going well both sides often refrain from leaking to the media because they don’t want to screw things up. When talks start to fall apart both sides start talking to the media to get their story out there. If you go back and read that Pierre LeBrun story you’ll see that he is VERY careful to note that the Kovy-to-Chicago part of his story he got from someone NOT connected to the Thrashers. However, in the part where he talks about how much money Kovy wants he makes no such disclaimer. LeBrun has higher standards than Eklund so it is quite likely one of the parties (almost certainly the Thrashers) leaked that number to him. If the number was waaaaay too high all Jay Grossman has to do is pick up the phone to a couple of NHL media types and dispute it.The fact that was no protest from the Grossman side strongly suggests to me that the $10 million figure is accurate.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Jan 6, 2010 9:04 AM EST up reply actions  

You may be right and I agree that LeBrun is not Eklund, but there are reasons why the figure could be wrong and Grossman would not dispute it. Smart agents don’t negotiate in the media. Has that ever been Grossman’s style?

by Zontar on Jan 6, 2010 10:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Last night was my once or twice a year when I lay in bed wondering why I put any emotional attachment to pro sports teams. That truly felt like the end of the season for this team. All the teams I like do nothing but disappoint (SF Giants and Sharks as well as Thrashers). Watching these clips just prolongs it into the morning.

I had previously thought trading or letting Kovy go would be a disaster for this team but I’ve changed my mind. They’re not a contenting club with him and I don’t see how they can build one around him with his projected salary on the books. It’s unfortunate that it’s come to this but Waddell is going to have to suck it up and take what he can get for the guy in the next few weeks….then resign.

I’d also thought Kovy was serious about staying here…he’d said exactly that, he’d laid out what he wanted to see from management, they delivered w/ Max and Antropov and he built a mansion in Buckhead this year. But then I tried to remember another bonafide superstar who has chosen to stay with his loser team when free agency was an option. My brain doesn’t catalog much of that type of info but I can’t come up with one. The only example that occurred to me was Ed Belfour leaving the then-pathetic Sharks for the Stars…for LESS money than SJ offered. I really believe that most of these types of athletes are in it to win and don’t worry as much about every last dollar as we might think.

Gonna be another rough couple of years for this club.

by tbradshaw on Jan 6, 2010 8:50 AM EST reply actions  

Pretty damning.

I watched the Tech debacle last night, so I missed the game, but his lack of defense is reprehensible.

by Pogue Mahon on Jan 6, 2010 9:08 AM EST reply actions  

Kovy was just peeling off so that he could cover his man at the point like a good LW should. He was being defensively responsible.

OK so maybe not. To me, it looked like he wasn’t even really trying in the offensive zone last night. Shades of Hossa. Kinda tells me that he has already left mentally. Time for a trade. Build this team around Bogosian, Enstrom, Little and Kane.

by Pfloyd75 on Jan 6, 2010 9:35 AM EST reply actions  

And please for the love of God....

After 10 years of aimlessly wandering in the dark, find us an everyday starting goaltender. He doesn’t even need to be Vezina worthy, not asking for much. GAA in the 2.30 – 2.45 range and SP around .915 – .925, and can handle 60 – 65 starts a season.

Wadda-do, Everybody...

by TheBrickwall on Jan 6, 2010 9:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Us an 19 other teams wish for the same goalie.

by Ahijado94 on Jan 6, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions  

The other problem?

.915 save % with 2.45 GAA —> 29 shots allowed
.925 save % with 2.30 GAA -
→ 30 shots allowed

We allow considerably more shots, so such a goalie is a virtual impossibility. If a Thrashers goalie has a .915 save %, as Kari Lehtonen is close to most of the time, the GAA is much higher than 2.45.

by timmyf on Jan 6, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions  

when have we ever had solid defending?? this year we have probably the best combination of defenders in our franchise, and were still giving up 30-40 shots a game. unlike goalies such as brodeur, thrashers goalies have had little support over the years, which is why they frequently have gaas of well over 3 and still have sv% over 90. they get shelled every night. i cant remember the last season when thrashers didnt finish in the bottom third in shots allowed per game. kubina, hainsey, and of course, enstrom have been great. bogosian, salmela, and schubert still have some holes that other teams take advantage of. if we trade kovy, we definitely some solid defense in return.

by dennylambert!! on Jan 6, 2010 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

You really consider Little a building block of this team?! He (along with some others) are non existent out there. I cant believe this is the same guy who scored 30 goals last season. He barely looks like he belongs in the NHL right now. I would almost trade him now if I thought we could get anything for him. I am wondering if last year was a fluke.

Kozlov too is severely disappointing. He was never the same since he signed his big contract after putting up 70pts. These are 2 guys who need to step up big time. The first part of the season it was okay because the Thrashers were winning and you figured they would come around, but now the Thrashers are losing big time and need them to start producing.

by Tim C on Jan 6, 2010 10:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Could not agree more!

by Ahijado94 on Jan 6, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

i wouldnt build a franchise around him, but i wouldnt trade him now either. why would we trade him when his value is so low?? he has proven he has a much better upside worth more than anything we would currently get for him based on this season.

by dennylambert!! on Jan 6, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Shades of early December

This isn’t the first time this year we’ve seen this type of pathetic defense from Kovy. Prior to last night, Kovy seemed to be a bit more attentive and at least his offense was somewhat making up for his defensive apathy. However, the first clip shows his egregious disdain for exerting ANY EFFORT whatsoever! How do you trail that play and then peel off thinking that the puck is about to come to you? I said it (well, shouted it to my g/f in the other room) as it happened and lo and behold, GOAL! If I were a D-man on this team, I would simply refuse to outlet the puck to Kovy from now until his ass is traded.

And while he gave some modicum of effort on the second clip, he just stood there 5 feet from Letang when he could have taken 2 strides, reached out and at least feigned an attempt to stop / steal the puck. At least make him consider passing. Letang was stunned he was so wide open! Probably why he fanned on the shot a bit which is why it ended up going 5 hole when he was aiming low glove side.

Max’s D on that play was equally pathetic and just as bad as his lousy D on the 4th goal I believe when he chased the puck behind the net rather than mark a man in case the puck comes back out in front. This crap is enough to drive goaltenders insane! At least earlier in the year, most of our forwards were collapsing into the slot and clogging things up. Now it seems like either they play 1 on 1 while someone blows and assignment or they all chase the puck at the wrong time and leave 2 guys wide freakin’ open!

Regardless of the amount Grossman / Kovy are asking for, it doesn’t matter if this is the type of defensive commitment you will get. Hell, it could be $8 M, $7.5 M, I don’t care what it is. Kovy isn’t even worth his current salary or even $5 M with this lack of commitment.

by Smoothinator on Jan 6, 2010 10:28 AM EST reply actions  

Everything I am about to say is going to seem like I am making excuses for Kovy when there is no justification for the plays shown in this post. However, keep in mind the Thrashers were at the end of a long trip so you know they were tired. Unfortunately, these types of plays by Kovy (or lack thereof) you have to take the good with the bad. I could show 3 clips from the Islanders game where Kovy hustled hard and produced 3 goals to get the Thrashers back into a game they were down 0-3 and 1-4.

I think we are being a little rough on him. I will agree though this is superb evidence as to why he is not worth 10-11 million a season.

by Tim C on Jan 6, 2010 10:47 AM EST reply actions  

He probably was tired. He’ll be tired if he ever plays in a Game 7 in late May in the playoffs—and he will cost whatever team he plays for then because of his bad habit of curling away from the puck when the opposition has possession. It’s just basic elementary hockey —and yet he still is making these same stupid mistakes in his own zone.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Jan 6, 2010 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Look on the bright side

Were finally coming home tomorrow, most of the remaining games are at home, and were still right smack in the middle of the playoff race. Were only 3 pts from 8th which is currently occupied by a Habs team that has played 3 more games than us. This team tends to be streaky, so we could go on to win our next 5 and shoot up to 6th in no time. Unlike last year, the season isnt over yet in January, and we have plenty of games to fight back if they get their act together. Lets just hope the kovy saga doesnt poison the locker room.

by dennylambert!! on Jan 6, 2010 12:38 PM EST reply actions  

There in lies the problem. I believe the saga as you put it already has.

by EvilMilkshake on Jan 6, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

TOI/G

Since this is all about grinding stats…

Effort has a lot to do with workload – Kovalchuk is #4 in the league in time on ice per game amount forwards. A quick look at +/- for the league leading skaters makes it pretty cleat that loads of ice time hurts your defensive ability.

Ahead of him are:
1) Gaborik 6)
2) Getzlaf (4)
3) Crosby (9)
4) Kovalchuk (0)
5) St. Louis (-3)
6) Ovetchkin (18)
7) Stasny (24)
8) Kopitar (2)
9) Nash (-14)
10) Malkin (+6)

Since +/- is a better indicator is a flawed stat, a comparison inside the Thashers may give an idea of his value in comparison. Only Kubina is logging more ice time than Kovalchuk with a positive +/- and only 4 forwards are ahead of him in +/- at all.
.
Player P +/- Pos TOI/G
Nik Antropov 36 14 C 18:25
Pavel Kubina 22 9 D 22:22
Tobias Enstrom 34 6 D 22:18
Marty Reasoner 14 4 C 12:17
Anssi Salmela 4 4 D 13:09
Colby Armstrong 15 3 R 14:22
Evander Kane 16 3 L 14:01
Ilya Kovalchuk 47 0 L 22:05
Chris Thorburn 7 0 C 9:22
Boris Valabik 2 0 D 13:30
Eric Boulton 5 -2 L 6:19
Mark Popovic 3 -4 D 13:30
Christoph Schubert 7 -4 D 16:10
Jim Slater 3 -4 C 9:51
Maxim Afinogenov 39 -5 R 18:01
Rich Peverley 35 -5 C 19:09
Bryan Little 16 -7 R 15:33
Ron Hainsey 11 -10 D 21:34
Zach Bogosian 17 -12 D 22:40
Vyacheslav Kozlov 19 -13 L 15:32
Todd White 16 -15 C 16:02

by jonathan_m_peterson on Jan 6, 2010 4:39 PM EST reply actions  

its a bit different though if you play hard and still get scored on while your on the ice as opposed to being in prime possition to do something about it as show in both of those clips and essentially becoming a spectator.

by swegs on Jan 7, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Not just Kovy

I do agree: a player who only plays in 2/3 of the zones should only get, at most, 2/3 of the cap max. However, Kovy is not the only forward on the team who isn’t interested in doing the right thing in the defensive zone.

If you watch the replay of the goal scored by Caputi, you can clearly see several of Atlanta’s players backchecking. However, both Kane and Reasoner peel off to the right and have a great view, from the right corner and behind the net respectively, of Caputi scoring over a flopping Pavs.

Until a coach comes in and demands that all five skaters take care of business in their own zone first and foremost, this franchise will never have success.

by flerd_trandle on Jan 6, 2010 5:17 PM EST reply actions  

I agree that the problems with defense are not limited to Kovy. It is very fustrating to watch all of the Thrashers be the last one to arrive at the puck on the boards or not hustling on the backcheck. But there is a big difference in that they are not captains of an NHL team and they definitely are not up for potential a $10mil/yr contract. Is it possible or even highly likely that they are learning to play like that from him? In my opinion, yes. I think that if Kovy is asking for that amount of money we need to compare him to the players who make that much or near it. He may be earning it in the goals stat but according to the +/- stats above, Kovy clearly is not earning it there.

by Ahijado94 on Jan 6, 2010 6:15 PM EST reply actions  

What exactly is wrong with this play?

Ilya Kovalchuk is a LW… would you rather Kovy come out of position to chase the guy down low, only to have him cycle the puck back up to the point for the right D, who would then be wide open and able to simply walk it in for a clear shot on goal?

I feel like he chased him as far as he was supposed to, then went back for his assignment… if anything we need to fix what our forwards are told to do in their own zone, AKA John Anderson’s sytem.

by DungeonK on Jan 7, 2010 4:35 PM EST reply actions  

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