Decision Day Looms for Kovalchuk, Waddell and Thrashers
Pierre LeBrun reported on CBC's Hot Stove that today the Atlanta Thrashers are to make a "final offer" to Kovalchuk's agent Jay Grossman at the World Junior Tournament in Saskatoon. On the credibility scale, Pierre LeBurn ranks significantly higher than Eklund or Bruce Garroich so I'm going to put more stock in this report than your run-of-the-mill rumor mongers. Whether the Thrashers deadline for a Kovalchuk decision is today, tomorrow or next week is beside the point--at some point a decision must be made--this thing can not go on forever. As a fan of the Thrashers since Game One of the team's history, I'm very concerned about what happens next. Frankly, I see more negative outcomes than positive ones.
Let's say Kovalchuk accepts the rumored offer of 12 years for $10 million each. Many fans would rejoice and proclaim their happiness--I'm not so sure. Can you win a Stanley Cup with 20% of your entire payroll invested in a guy who is great on offense but who contributes very little on the defensive side of the equation? Have teams won the Stanley Cup with one sided offensive players? Yes. Has anyone won the Stanley Cup with with a one-way player who consumes 1 out of every 5 payroll dollars? I don't think so. As a fan I'd trade one Stanley Cup for ten 50 goal seasons.
On the other hand, let's say Kovalchuk turns down the reported offer of 12 years at $10 million per year--that might avoid a Brian Campbell type contract overpayment, but it also leaves the franchise in a terrible bargaining position. If they Thrashers keep Kovalchuk for the remainder of the season in an attempt to get back to the playoffs they could trade his negotiating rights after the playoffs for a very small return. Or they could try and trade him tomorrow for a modest return. But no matter when they trade him, the return will not be nearly what it ought to be--because they waited too long to cut bait.
If the Thrashers had dealt Kovalchuk in the summer of 2008 or 2009 they could have gotten a king's ransom of picks, prospects and players. If you make a deal in the summer when teams have cap room there would be many more bidders, right now cap space is going to limit the number of bidders and the potential payoff. The organization gambled that they could re-sign him--right now it looks like they're about to lose that bet.
No matter what happens in the next several weeks I don't see any "great" outcomes for the Atlanta Thrashers. The two best possible outcomes would have been 1) a "home-team" discount in re-signing Kovalchuk or 2) a king's ransom received in trading Kovalchuk. Neither outcome is now possible. The team will either over-pay him or they will trade away their leading scorer while sinking fast in the Eastern Conference standings. There is a very real risk that the team could miss the playoffs yet another year AND lose the face of the franchise at the same time. Ouch.
The other story here is that reputations will be made or lost in the next few weeks. How will people view Kovalchuk? He certainly has played his best hockey since being named Captain one year ago. By all accounts he wants to see the NHL succeed in Atlanta. He also has expressed a desire to be a Thrasher for life. On the other hand, holding out for every last dollar makes it much harder for the Thrashers to pay for quality teammates to fill out their roster. If this is all just a negotiating ploy to get more money it is certainly having a negative impact on the current season and the team's playoff hopes.
In life people rarely get everything that they desire, most of us have to choose one thing over another. Ilya Kovalchuk must decide what is most important to him. Is it money? Is it a winning hockey team? Is it stability and staying someplace he is comfortable? I remember when Ryan Smyth was Captain of the Oilers and he held out for more money than the Oilers were offering him. Edmonton then traded the face of their franchise to the Islanders for picks and prospects and Ryan Smyth cried at his farewell news conference. I often wonder if Ryan Smyth is happier in Colorado Los Angeles, earning that extra couple of million dollars? If he could do it over again would Smyth take less money to stay with the team he loved? If Kovalchuk departs for another market and more money he might be surprised by the pressure that comes with being the star attraction. The Atlanta market has been very easy on him over the years. In other NHL cities he would be ripped apart on TV, radio and print for his defensive indifference. With big money comes big expectations. Be careful what you wish for.
For Don Waddell this will likely be a career defining moment. By all rights he should have been replaced after the 2007-08 season after Hartley was fired, the Coburn-Zhitnik trade turned sour and the Hossa departure saga. Many people get a second chance in life. In pro sports some people get a 2nd chance. But VERY FEW people get a 2nd chance with the same team. Waddell has done much better in his 2nd attempt to build a contending team. He's avoided overpaying for veterans nearing the end of their career. The roster matches up better with the coach's style than in the past. Waddell's done well at finding "nearly free talent" (Peverly, Schubert and Afinogenov). There is more veteran depth in Chicago and more prospect depth than in the past. All of these are areas where Waddell and the management team have shown improvement.
As human beings our strengths are also our weaknesses. Waddell is a passionate and emotional guy. Waddell believes in his guys, and faults them at times. Exelby is Exhibit A on that point. But Kovalchuk may end up being Exhibit B. Waddell believes that Kovalchuk is a great hockey player and wants to be a life-long Thrasher. But the decision to sign or trade Ilya should have been made before training camp even began. How could anyone forget the Hossa soap opera? Waddell remained loyal to the player and now Kovalchuk has all the leverage and Waddell has only bad options available to him. If Kovalchuk fails re-sign Waddell's loyalty will have been mis-placed and the Thrashers will likely miss the playoffs for yet another season.
The third group with something on the line is ownership of the Thrashers. When they bought the team they were excited and wanted to make a big splash. They were in a hurray to spend a lot of money on players and ended up with an old team and no cap space--which resulted in missing the playoffs in 2006, then overpaying in trades to ensure a playoff appearance in 2007 and then the harsh reality of an old roster and a lack of depth in the dismal 2008 season. The ownership should have hired a new GM in 2008. The organization had a narrow foundation of young cheap talent and had a one-way star player who was 2 years away from becoming an UFA. They needed a man with a long-term vision who could come to Atlanta and sweep away the rubble and re-build the organization with a broad base of young cheap talent.
Instead, they choose not to go that route. They kept Waddell who attempted to rebuild a contender without ever uttering the "r word" since he was the man responsible for the first attempt. Making a change in 2008 would have shown that accountability exists not just for players and coaches, it even exists for management. A new GM could have sold "the future". A new GM could have traded Kovalchuk and built a roster loaded with young talent and built the foundation of a Stanley Cup contender. By not making a change they gambled that Waddell could improve on his performance as GM (which he has) and that Kovalchuk would play better (which he did) and that he would re-sign for a reasonable price (which he hasn't) and stay a long time (which looks unlikely).
If the rumors are accurate, the ownership has signed off on a more-than-adequate offer to Kovalchuk (so no complaints about them being too cheap) but in my mind, they missed the opportunity for the full rebuild that was necessary in 2008. When I floated the idea of trading Kovalchuk for lots of prospects and high draft picks to people in the summer of 2008, they argued that fans would desert the team and nobody had any stomach for another rebuild. And yet, that is precisely the situation ownership may be confronted with in the summer of 2010. What if Kovalchuk is gone, the team flat-lines and misses the playoffs yet again? No gate attraction. No winning season. No load of prospects that could have been obtained back in 2008. If 2010 goes sour for the Thrashers franchise, the origin of that bad taste goes back to mis-judgments in the summers of 2008 and 2009.
Conclusion
The Atlanta Thrashers and Ilya Kovalchuk are both at a crossroads. They arrived at this crossroads because of past choices that set up the current organizational crisis. I certainly can't predict what will happen next, but dead ahead is a fork in the road and whichever path is traveled will have significant consequences for the reputation (and future) of Ilya Kovalchuk, Don Waddell and the Atlanta Thrashers ownership.
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Comments
Finance-wise, I’m not sure that Kovy is the right player for this team at this particular moment. If an acceptable trade package can be put together (something much better than the Hossa trade), then I’d be willing to part with him. I knew when Ovechkin was signed to his current contract that it would cause trouble for teams down the road, the Thrashers in particular.
I also see very few ways the Kovalchuk contract can be worth it. Assuming we do something like 12-years @ 9 million, he might be worth it for 6-8 of those years, but in the out years? Not a chance. Long-term, we are better off moving him…
by timmyf on Jan 4, 2010 6:44 PM EST via mobile reply actions
time to move on
i thought we should have traded him last year too. the argument that fans will desert the team if kovalchuk leaves is ridiculous. thrashers fans and attendees fall into one of 3 categories: 1)those who dont know anything about hockey or the team but go to one or 2 games a season 2)casual fans that go fairly often, know the big players like kovalchuk but not much else 3) diehard fans that are very knowledgeable about the team and hockey. losing kovy wouldnt make any difference to the first group, because they dont know who kovalchuk is anyways. it wouldnt matter to the diehard group, because we understand the cap situation and the implications of keeping him. and although the 2nd group may question why the team couldnt retain kovy, some well placed advertising could easily market whatever new players we get from the trade (cam barker and versteeg?) and exciting young prospects we already have. for the longest time, our only player worth noting was kovy (with brief stints of heatley and hossa), but thats slowly changing (finally). although its been a great ride, i wouldnt be too sad if the team lost kovy as early as tonight and neither will/should any other fan.
Well said
The moment the owners decided to not fire Don Waddell after the post-playoffs disaster season is why we are here at this moment.
DW had too much faith in Ilya Kovalchuk. He has put this entire franchise’s short term future in the hands of Ilya and his excellently greedy agent….and they have spent the last month beating Don Waddell to a bloody pulp with his good intentions. Even if Ilya signs now, the negotiations have to be viewed as at least one reason for the abysmal December/January slide.
Wouldn’t it be a kick in the teeth if that old fool trades Ilya to the Blackhawks, and we get to watch Hossa and Ilya make a deep run into the playoffs as the Thrashers slowly slide into another mediocre spot in the NHL Lottery Draft.
Don Waddell has done more damage to hockey in Atlanta than any spy from Winnipeg or Hamilton could ever hope to. His continued employment is a slap in the face to anyone who has plunked their hard earned money down for this team.
Ok, we get it...
… You don’t like Don Waddell. You’ve only pissed and moaned about him on a half dozen boards for 8 years. DW is the Clinton to your Limbaugh: Once he’s gone you’ll actually have to find something of substance to talk about. I hope you do better than Rush did.
All that has been stated is true but there is one possible positive outcome. There are a number of teams close to the cap that are ready to make cup runs. Chicago and Boston are the to obvious ones that may well have to shed salary prior to next season. There is no way DW is going to get what he could have in the summer of 08 or 09 for that matter but talented RFA aged players who have mid level contracts might be had for a rental in excahnge for a cup run.
While DWs past decisions have been questionable the last two season he has been much better at obtaining talent.
One of the problems we have is that fan perceptions of contract negotiations are often as far removed from reality as they can be. A case in point is what happened to Tom Glavine after the 2002 baseball season. The Braves wanted him to leave via free agency, but Glavine wanted to stay, so he used the local press to manipulate the Braves into making an offer. The Braves made a series of low ball offers to Glavine, each one worse than the one before it and Glavine kept agreeing to them. Eventually the Braves realized that he simply was not going to turn down any offer and leave, so the Braves pulled their final offer and told him to hit the road. Yet what do probably 90-95% of Braves fans think? “Greedy” Tom Glavine left in 2002 to get more money elsewhere when in fact the Braves pulled their final offer to him because he was going to take it. My point is that I am not at all convinced that the Thrashers are making a $10 million dollar a season offer for 10-12 years to Kovy. I’d be surprised if they are even willing to pay $9 million. They are 23rd in the league in payroll and we’re suddenly supposed to believe that they are opening the purse strings?
For whatever it’s worth, Waddell has stated that he feels that a player’s value goes up closer to the trading deadline, so that’s why Kovy wasn’t dealt. Plus, dealing him would have been a PR disaster. It would have told the fans that the owners simply were not committed to the team. The team is 29th in attendance right now and likely to be dead last once Kovy is traded. The owners gambled that the fans would come out if they held on to Kovy for a while, but the fans were not fooled and the gamble failed. Kane was drafted not just because he was the best player available, but because he is Kovy’s heir apparent and the future face of the franchise. Of course, if I am Kane, Bogosian and Enstrom, I have to notice that the owners let our franchise player walk. I wouldn’t get too attached to these young stars. They’ll be pulling a Hossa when their turn comes too. Josh Childress decided he’d rather play in Greece for a few years than stay with the Hawks. Joe Johnson, the guy whose arrival started all the legal mess with Belkin, turned down a $15 million a season extension and will leave the team as a free agent. Yet the Spirit seem oblivious to the point that is being made – the problem is THEM.
To me, this is all about the owners making a commitment to hockey. I have believed since Kane was drafted that the owners decided not to make a serious effort to re-sign Kovy, but to simply put an offer not low enough to be a complete joke but low enough that the probably won’t take it. If he does re-sign at a discount, then they’ll take it, but the real plan has always been to not re-sign him. For a while I thought that the problem might be Kovy, but looking back I really don’t think that they were serious about the negotations. As late as Thanksgiving by his own admission Waddell was playing word games with Jay Grossman, Kovy’s agent, and hadn’t even made an offer to him. Assuming that had he been traded over the summer, he would have brought more in a trade? Well, all I can say is that this is pretty optimistic thinking about a GM who thought that Daulton Leveille was a 1st round pick and who in the end traded Marian Hossa for Eric O’Dell, a prospect said to be still at least one more full year away from being NHL ready. Yes, Hossa was swapped for O’Dell. We had to give up Dupuis to get Armstrong, so that means that Hossa got swaped for Leveille (bad pick), Esposito (injuries and attitude may keep him from playing even 1 game in the NHL) and Christensen (traded for O’Dell). If Leveille and Esposito end up being worthless, and they may, we gave up Hossa for O’Dell.
Each fan can make up their own minds about what to do. As for me, I’m not going to any more games this season after Kovy is traded. I predict that the Thrashers will start a fire sale and move Armstrong and Kubina and possibly Kozlov if he waives his no trade clause. The Thrashers will be a lottery team in the draft this year. To me this is not about whether or not Kovy is worth whatever he is supposedly asking for. This is about whether or not the owners really and truly are committed to this team and I think that they are not. I’d love to eat my words and be proven wrong and see Kovy re-signed, but I don’t think it will happen. I see this as just the plan all along by owners who just don’t get it.
dennylambert! is entitled to his opinion, but I am sick and tired of the “real fans will support the team no matter what argument”. If he wants to pay for my tickets and that of my friends, I’ll be glad to go to a lot of games. But I’m not supporting these loser owners. Nor, it seems, are a lot of people who used to go to the games. Only a fool keeps throwing money down an empty hole. The people I go to games with have told me that they are going to thrown their support behind the Capitals once Kovy is traded. I may join them.
>> One of the problems we have is that fan perceptions of contract negotiations are often as far removed from reality as they can be. A case in point is what happened to Tom Glavine after the 2002 baseball season. The Braves wanted him to leave via free agency, but Glavine wanted to stay, so he used the local press to manipulate the Braves into making an offer. The Braves made a series of low ball offers to Glavine, each one worse than the one before it and Glavine kept agreeing to them. <<
That first sentence sums up the rest of that paragraph as everything past the first sentence is absolute BS. So yes, as a fan your perceptions and reality are wildly divergent.
http://a.espncdn.com/mlb/news/2002/1206/1472642.html
Your second paragraph is based nothing but your perceptions and what you’ve read in the press and is also pure speculation and probably BS as well. You have no idea what is taking placing in negotiations but you believe that Waddell is incompetent and that is coloring your view of the negotiations.
Kozlov should be moved. He should have been moved the past two seasons and should not have been given another contract to begin with. He’s not a good match for this team.
by SilverRubicon on Jan 5, 2010 9:26 AM EST up reply actions
No way you pay Kovalchuk max salary for 10 years. Keep in mind that this team will never spend to the max cap number anyways, so it really is more than 20 percent of the total team payroll.
He simply isn’t worth that kind of money. I would argue Hossa MAY have been if we we’re going to sign someone to that kind of money – he’s a better two way player, can play on the PK, etc.
What is the point of not supporting your NHL franchise? People pee and moan about the cheap ownership (which they are), but all boycotting home games will do is move this team elsewhere. Yes the ownership should spend the money necessary to put a competitive team on the ice, but the fans have to show some commitment also.
I don’t agree with decisions in the past, and Waddell should have been gone long ago but I’d rather keep the Thrashers here, thank you very much.
>> No way you pay Kovalchuk max salary for 10 years.
Exactly. This franchise can’t work with a single player making 11million a year (which is what the maximum would entail) That’s damning the franchise to please a few fair weather fans who won’t show up for the remainder of the season if he’s traded.
by SilverRubicon on Jan 5, 2010 9:28 AM EST up reply actions
At this point, the situation is a complete “Klusterchuk™.”
by LetNoneIn on Jan 5, 2010 10:22 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
zontar, how many franchises have made bad decisions, oversaw terrible trades, and had awful gms for long period of times?? I would go out on a limb and say all 30 have (not just the islanders). its a part of hockey and it happens all the time, and almost every time it does occur, some fans like you declare that youre never going to go to game again, because that will serve the management for personally insulting you with their incompetence. And yet, the franchise lives on, and changes and the teams still win eventually. Its funny you bring up how bad the hawks management/ownership has been when theyre now currently 4th in the East. Did you threaten to never go to a Hawks game also after Childress left? Do you think if Johnson leaves, the team will never be good again?
Even though it’s tough to swallow, Atlanta is a small market city for arena sports, so when a player becomes a star, we can either spend 1/5 of the budget on him, or trade him for a mix of prospects/picks/cheaper players. this isnt a new phenomenon and it applies to most nhl teams right now. since all of us are just speculating on Kovy’s true offer, we dont know how much itll cost the thrashers. But as this franchise has realized year after year, one star, especially one who could cost 1/5 of the cap space, does not a stanley cup make. Yes, we could have gotten more for his last year, but we could still get some pretty good guys for kovy, and the team will live on.

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