Constructing the Post-Kovalchuk Thrashers
Up until very recently, I expected the Thrashers and Ilya Kovalchuk to come to some sort of agreement. Recently I've heard some rumbling that make me more doubtful that he will be re-signed. If Kovalchuk departs most Thrashers fans will be deeply depressed. I am not one of those people. Because of his style of play, I've never thought Ilya Kovalchuk was the sort of guy you could build a Stanley Cup contender around. As a fan, my number one goal is to see Lord Stanley's Cup awarded to my team in June before I die.
Seeing Kovalchuk exit stage right could actually speed up the process of getting closer to Lord Stanley. Whether the Thrashers get closer or further from Lord Stanley largely depends on how the team reacts. There are many things that are difficult to predict in professional sports. But one thing that is predictable is that young players improve on average and old players decline. If the Thrashers react to Kovalchuk's departure by adding a bunch of over-32 veterans then I might just give up on this team. However, the team could leverage Ilya's departure into a very exciting young team that could contend in a couple of years--here's my plan to construct the next the first Thrashers Cup contender.
Step One: Leverage Kovalchuk, Maxim Afinogenov and Colby Armstrong into draft picks and quality players under age 30. The ideal situation would be something like this, you trade Kovalchuk and Afinogenov to the LA Kings for Dustin Brown, Jack Johnson and future considerations. Dustin Brown is a very underrated player. He consistently leads the NHL in penalties drawn. He hits people and they retaliate which gives his team more Power Play opportunities. If Dustin Brown got credit for all the Power Play Goals he brings to his team his stats would look much more flashy.
Jack Johnson is a great skating defenseman who also loves to hit. With this trade the Thrashers would become a much more physical team (something needed in playoff hockey). When you think about Evander Kane maturing into a power forward over the next years and the arrival of hard hitting Carl Klingberg--holy cow!! Brown, Johnson, Kane and Klingberg are a quartet that could physically intimidate the opposition for the next half decade...a very exciting thought.
Step Two: Everyone around the NHL knows that the salary cap will remain flat or perhaps even decline slightly. Everyone in the NHL also knows that the Chicago Blackhawks need to toss overboard $9 million in salary just to get under the cap after re-signing their young stars. Chicago needs to trade Versteeg, Barker and Byfulgien for non-NHL considerations (prospects and picks). The Thrashers will have loads of cap room--they need to be the team where this talent lands. Trade the picks obtained in dealing Afinogenov and Armstrong at the deadline (and picks for the weak 2011 Draft) and get this deal done.
Step Three: Todd White is in the final year of his contract and adds neither scoring nor hitting to the team. Frankly every game he plays is a waste of ice time that ought to go to a young player who might be part of the next great Thrashers team. Signing a Todd White to a four year deal that paid him into his late 30s was a bad idea from the start. Buyout his final year and free up a roster spot to give ice time to a younger player who might be part of the next contending Thrashers squad.
Step Four: Assuming the Thrashers have a team payroll of $52-54 million (including all potential bonuses), the team will have $5-7 million to spend on two free agent forwards. For the sake of filling in that blank spot, I have the team signing UFA Alexander Frolov for $5 million. To be honest I'm not sure how much Frolov will receive on the UFA market or if he is a good fit a tougher version of the Thrashers. If not Frolov, my budget leaves a big chunk of salary for a 1st line caliber player to be added to the roster.
Final Roster: The Thrashers have show an increased appreciation for the age curve in recent years. My hypothetical roster would be a massive step in exploiting the career curve. The vast majority of the roster would either be in the rising part of the age curve (18-24) or the peak years part of the age curve (25-30) leaving just on player (Marty Reasoner) on the decline side of the age curve. Some people might argue this is too much youth, in which case you can swap out the money I have allocated to Frolov and spend it on a sage veteran type. Below is a table showing my 2010-11 Atlanta Thrashers complete with Age, Career Stage, Salary Cap #, Career Points Per game, Games Played, Expected Points (based on 82 games and their NHL career). (Note: Scoring rates for Machacek and Holzapfel are NHL Equivalency projections)
| Line | Player | Age | Career | Cap # | Career PPG | GP | Expected PTS | |
| D1 | Enstrom | 25 | Peak | 3.75 | 0.50 | 82 | 41 | |
| D1 | Bogosian | 19 | Rising | 3.38 | 0.39 | 82 | 32 | |
| D2 | Hainsey | 29 | Peak | 4.50 | 0.37 | 82 | 30 | |
| D2 | Johnson, J. | 23 | Rising | 1.43 | 0.24 | 82 | 20 | |
| D3 | Barker | 24 | Rising | 3.08 | 0.41 | 82 | 34 | |
| D3 | Valabik | 24 | Rising | 0.76 | 0.09 | 41 | 4 | |
| D4 | Salmela | 25 | Peak | 0.61 | 0.21 | 41 | 9 | |
| F1 | Frolov | 27 | Peak | 5.00 | UFA | 0.71 | 82 | 58 |
| F1 | Versteeg | 24 | Rising | 3.08 | 0.63 | 82 | 52 | |
| F1 | Antropov | 30 | Peak | 4.06 | 0.60 | 82 | 49 | |
| F2 | Peverley | 27 | Peak | 1.30 | 0.59 | 82 | 48 | |
| F2 | Kane | 18 | Rising | 3.10 | 0.56 | 82 | 46 | |
| F2 | Brown, D | 25 | Peak | 3.18 | 0.47 | 82 | 39 | |
| F3 | Byfuglien | 25 | Peak | 3.00 | 0.43 | 82 | 35 | |
| F3 | Little | 22 | Rising | 2.00 | RFA | 0.41 | 82 | 34 |
| F3 | Reasoner | 33 | Decline | 1.15 | 0.37 | 82 | 30 | |
| F4 | Machacek | 22 | Rising | 0.86 | 0.29 | 82 | 24 | |
| F4 | Holzapfel | 22 | Rising | 0.82 | 0.19 | 82 | 16 | |
| F4 | Thorburn | 27 | Peak | 0.66 | 0.19 | 82 | 16 | |
| F5 | FA Checker | 1.00 | ||||||
| XX | White | 35 | Decline | 0.79 | Buyout | 0.60 | 0 | |
| G1 | Pavelec | 22 | Rising | 2.00 | RFA | PTS | 615 | |
| G2 | Lehtonen | 26 | Peak | 3.00 | RFA | Goals | 228 | |
| TOTAL $$$ | 25 | 52.51 |
Now here's the real kicker, this Post-Kovalchuk roster would be cheaper than the current Thrashers team that is currently sitting out of a playoff position. It is a cheaper team and a team with a much greater upside over the next 5 year window. This is the type of young foundation needed to construct a Cup contender. Furthermore this $52 million roster is well under the cap which leaves open the possibility of adding talent and salary at the trade deadline in they are in contention. In the long run it also leaves room for pay increases to emerging stars like Bogosian and Kane as the hit their 2nd NHL contracts.
This Post-Kovalchuk team projects to score fewer goals--but they would only drop from 7th to 11th in offense. The offense projection is likely going to UNDER estimate the team's offensive production because on average young players will meet or exceed their career average as they develop and hit their peak years. It is entirely possible that a young Post-Kovalchuk roster could actually match or exceed the production of the current team that contains Ilya in a year or two as the talent matures.
The gains on defense are much harder to estimate but simply removing Kovalchuk from the lineup would improve the defensive side of things (harsh but true). Adding in hard-hitting tough-nosed player like Dustin Brown and Jack Johnson would certainly make playing against Atlanta a lot less fun for soft opposition players. The arrival of Carl Klingberg and physical maturation of Evander Kane will amplify this physical dimension of the team (which is largely missing from the current version of the Atlanta Thrashers).
Conclusion: Trading away Ilya Kovalchuk will be excruciating to many Thrashers, but every low point is also a potential turning point. Two years ago the Thrashers were one of the oldest teams in the NHL and needed a full-scale rebuild. If the team can make a few crucial moves they can complete the youth movement and construct the foundation of genuine Cup contender. Can the team turn lead into gold? Can they covert a crisis into a transformational moment? This trade is going to hurt many fans--MAKE IT COUNT!!!
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Comments
No question the moves would have to be spot on but going with a higher number of younger players with upside allows for a mistake or two in personel decisions.
When you look at Anderson’s Wolves teams they had fewer star quality players but more players who fit his system, going with youth and speed might fit his sytem better than having established players with traits that do not match the system played.
by Thrashfan01 on Jan 27, 2010 7:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
So our new strategy is to become the Kings? Come on, Falconer, let’s be creative!
I’m not sure we can get both Johnson and Brown from the Kings. It’d be great if we could, but that’s a tall order.
Ideally, we could also try to snag Jeff Carter from the Flyers. That would give us a guy with solid offensive credentials who doesn’t mind playing a little defense.
A good preview, no doubt.
by timmyf on Jan 27, 2010 7:48 AM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
I have long admired what Lomdardi is doing out in LA.
Jeff Carter is a good idea, better than my Frolov suggestion.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jan 27, 2010 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The only moves I would make this year would be to trade Kovy, Armstrong, and Kubina. Armstrong can be replaced with Machacek, and Kubina with Kulda/Oysterick. I don’t see much point to dismantling the team by losing Afiniginov.
by SilverRubicon on Jan 27, 2010 8:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Afinogenov is perfect trade bait. He’s having a great year and is a classic rental. Keeping him around would be a huge mistake as he won’t score like this again with or without Kovy.
by Pogue Mahon on Jan 27, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To be nit picky, Todd White is not in the final year of his contract. NEXT season is the final year of his contract. Todd is pretty cheap and I see little gain to buying him out. It’s not like they have a replacement ready. Besides, he’s likely to rebound next season anyway. I’m not a White fan, but they might as well just ride this one out.
This article is a highly optimistic best case scenario. We’re supposed to expect that an organization that threw first round picks in the trash on Bourret, Little (sorry folks, but I put the odds at 90% that Little will never score as many as 15 goals in a season again) and Leveille will suddenly know what it is doing. Or that once they free up this money they’ll actually spend it. Or that our young talent won’t get the hell out of town as quickly as they can when they become UFAs.
A more likely scenario is that the Thrashers will be a bottom 5 team for the next 5 years with a dwindling fan base. They never really contend for the playoffs and nobody wants to play here unless they are overpaid to do it. They pick up good players as 1 year rentals via trades with teams that want to shed salary, but the team never contends. Nobody will accept a head coaching job here except the most desperate of assistant coaches or AHL guys and desperate does not equal quality. Rumors of the team being sold and relocated continue. Most of the fans have given up hope and resigned themselves to the fact that the Thrashers will never be competitive but they have to just be happy to have an NHL team.
Whether Kovalchuk should be re-signed is debatable and we can all agree to disagree and respect differences of opinion. However, Brian Burke said this week what he heard the offer was that Kovy had turned down and all I can say is that Kovy can beat that as a free agent and the owners are delusional if they actually think that what Burke talked about is going to get Kovy signed. Again, we’re supposed to believe that a ownership group that can’t even make a realistic offer to its franchise player is suddenly going to “get it” in the future? Let me politely call that highly optimistic and extremely unlikely.
by Zontar on Jan 27, 2010 8:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’m not trying to predict what the Thrashers WILL do, I’m offering a road map for what the OUGHT to attempt.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jan 27, 2010 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“Leafs GM Brian Burke says he has heard that Kovalchuk has turned down a 10-year/$8.5 million deal. Based on that rumor, Burke does not seem interested in pursuing Kovalchuk at the March 3rd trade deadline or in the off-season.”
That’s a fair offer for Kovy’s services. I’d say he is worth up to 9million, but anything above that is not good business sense for the Thrashers.
“A more likely scenario is that the Thrashers will be a bottom 5 team for the next 5 years with a dwindling fan base.”
Another scenario is that Atlanta rebuilds their franchise as Nashville has done, with solid but unspectacular players and contend for a playoff spot year in and year out.
by SilverRubicon on Jan 27, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What did Burke say Kovy was offered?
We know management was wrong when they valued Savard 4 years ago. 5 mil a year for Savard was cheap, and they thought it was too expensive. Clearly, they haven’t learned from this mistakes.
by LetNoneIn on Jan 27, 2010 10:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Morin
i notice you threw klingberg in the mix for joining the team soon (probably because of the old standby defense they play with men in Sweden), but when do you think Morin could join the team? if were talking about letting younger guys get a chance, Morin is probably our next big scorer to come through the ranks. just curious when you think he’ll make the team, especially if you foresee a shift to younger players.
by dennylambert!! on Jan 27, 2010 10:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
also, do the thrashers need another defensive liability in Jack Johnson (-54 in last 3 years)? I rather take teubert and/or Hickey over Johnson.
by dennylambert!! on Jan 27, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That has the added benefit that Teubert (especially) and Hickey (less so)
might actually be available. Johnson isn’t, at least not as the second piece in a trade for a rental.
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jan 29, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I expect Klingberg to come over to North America for the 2011-2012 season when his contract in Sweden expires. Morin has NHL hands already but his skating needs a lot of work. He will play this year and next in the OHL. After that it is AHL or NHL for him. He might need another season in the AHL working with Thrashers skating coach.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jan 27, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think you’ll get Brown. You could get Wayne Simmonds, though, and he is awesome. Ultimately, I think the Kings will find the price for Kovalchuk too high and will take their chances in July. I’m sorry Kovy’s leaving you.
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
by RudyKelly on Jan 27, 2010 10:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I am following you, RKelly
I think it’s the other way around. Brown is more likely than Simmonds. No way Lombardi trades Simmonds, not even for Kovalchuk signed straight-up.
Also, I wonder if the price really will be too high. I think it’s just as likely that if a deal goes down we’ll all be scratching our heads. “That’s all it took? Malby and Lilja? Come on!”
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jan 29, 2010 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Any analysis that calls for jettisoning Todd White is one in which I am in favor. He’s like Erik Christensen. I would rather have the space created by him not being on the ice than having him on the ice. Yes, I’d rather play down a man than with Todd White.
-16 as of last night.
by CuckooForKovalchuk on Jan 27, 2010 12:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The two things I find most confusing in this situation are (1) the desire to get rid of Colby Armstrong (he’s in his prime, physical, and very effective at EV) and (2) the belief that Chicago will want to trade three good young players in order to solve their cap issues (surely moving Sopel, Huet or Campbell – in order of liklihood – would be more beneficial). The LA return also seems rather generous. Brown especially is an important part of the Kings’ success and I doubt they’d move him in a trade for a “win-now” guy. You may need to aim at younger players from the Kings roster/prospect pool.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 27, 2010 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
1) I would prefer to keep Colby, but my inference is that he only wanted to a one year deal so he could depart as a UFA. If he’s not interesting in staying Atlanta long term, better to turn him into someone who will help us contend down the road.
2) Chicago MUST reduce their salary by $9 million. They have no choice given the signing of Hossa, Keith, Toews and the other Kane. Of course they would rather deal Campbell or Huet—but what team would accept either of those contracts. I think both of those are untradeable contracts unless the Hawks were to package in picks and prospects along with those terrible contracts. Chicago can’t wait forever to make these deals, the CBA only allows a team to exceed the cap by 10% during the summer. The RFA arbitration deadlines could force them to make a trade in haste this summer. They will not have the luxury of waiting to make a deal when it suits them.
3) Getting Brown and Johnson is likely the best possible return from a deal with LA no reason not to aim high. If I were trading with the Kings I’d insist on Dustin Brown as the core of the deal. He’s a leader and possible captain of your team. The prospect may or may not flower as hoped (see Hossa trade) and you have to get at least certain building block in return for Kovalchuk.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jan 27, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Understood on Armstrong and I agree. If he’s not willing to sign an extension and the Thrashers are going to be moving Kovalchuk an rebuilding, they need to move Armstrong. He’s a really good player though, so you should be able to fetch something good for him.
With Chicago, I imagine they’ll look to package one of the young guys you mentioned above with either Campbell or Huet and ditch Sopel either in the minors or with a trade. I don’t think they purge three talented young players to get under though. If there’s one thing I learned from the Scott Gomez trade this past summer, it’s that you can move almost any contract. A package of Huet and Barker, for example, getting shopped at the draft might be able to find a taker. If they make it a priority, I believe they can get away with moving at least one of Huet or Campbell to solve the cap issues.
The problem with Brown is that he’s already the captain of a team and he has one of the best value contracts in the entire league. Unless you’re planning on offering either Kane or Bogosian as part of your package to get him, I can’t see why LA would even consider moving him.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 28, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brown
has always been that he is more tradeable than Kings fans generally think he is. Most of our fans see him as the heart of the team and basically untradeable. I think/worry that he is in the middle of his second season of underperforming; the team has seemed captain-less at times; and his stock his rising because of his Team USA (up-coming) appearance, wearing an A for them, etc., and also his affordable contract. The other thing is, Lombardi didn’t draft him (see Cammalleri and Visnovsky for two other pre-Lombardi picks; see Visnovsky and O’Sullivan for what happens to people who under-perform with new contracts).
However, I like Brown and he’s still getting better. He’s a great hitter, and he draws a lot of penalties. So I’m pretty confident that there’s no way a trade for IK would include Brown AND Simmonds, or Brown AND Johnson. Lombardi would have a bit of a PR problem trading Brown, so the trade would have to look otherwise excellent. Simmonds may well be the most popular player on the team, next to Doughty. Brown and Simmonds for IK would cause a riot.
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jan 29, 2010 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the beginning of that should read "my thought re Brown is that he has always been more tradeable"
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jan 29, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I respectfully disagree. While Brown may be underperforming in terms of point production, he brings another aspect to the Kings that none of the other players you mentioned did. O’Sullivan and Cammalleri were both single-dimensinonal players. They were there to put pucks in the net and points on the board. If they didn’t do this, they were worthless to the team (see Purcell this year for a comparison). Visnovsky was traded away because he brought back two players (Greene and Stoll) that fit well into the Kings system. I’m sure that Lombardi would have loved to keep Lubo, but we had to give the Oilers someone. Brown also fits Lombardi’s mold of the gritty, net-crashing winger that he wants from his players. Even when he’s not producing points, he’s bringing that “compete” that Lombardi always talks about.
Simmonds and Brown are similar style players. They both have skill potential, and they aren’t afraid to throw the body around either. They play well on the boards, can set up the play and have the “shot-first” mentality that Terry Murray says the Kings sometimes can fall away from. In other words, they fit into the system that Lombardi envisions that his Stanley Cup contending team will have.
I don’t think that Brown or Simmonds are untradable assets to the Kings. I do think that Lombardi would not consider trading either of them for a “finesse” player that doesn’t fit well into the Kings’ system, such as Ilya Kovalchuk.
by lakingsfan on Jan 30, 2010 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, mostly
but, again, my point is that Brown is more vulnerable than people generally think. I agree with your assessment of what he brings. and i don’t want to see him go.
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jan 31, 2010 10:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Will it be possible to pull off step 4? If Kovy departs, what “1st line caliber player” will decide to sign here? The team will have likely missed the playoffs, and has poor attendance. When they have 29 other choices, who would sign here? Even with Kovy, the FA signings we have gotten recently have been Hainsey and Antropov. Both of whom I like, but I don’t think they are who you are targeting in step 4.
by srvadt on Jan 27, 2010 2:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If ATL can’t attract a top UFA, they could always consider some of the ugly contracts that rich teams will be looking to divest with a flat cap. I suspect an overpaid guy like Briere could be added to fill out that top line (his real salary becomes quite affordable down the road).
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jan 27, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Save some $$$ for a goaltender!
The main difference between the Thrashers and better teams is the goaltending and the defense. We can score but it seems we usually have to win 6-5 or 5-4 instead of 6-3 and 5-2.
The Thrashers need to sign a front line goalie first and foremost!
Hell, go to the Sabres or Canucks and say we’ll give you any four guys on our roster for Ryan Miller or Roberto Luongo. I guarantee you the Thrashers would be a better team than they are now.
by Ryan Express on Jan 27, 2010 3:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Before the Kovalchuk to the Kings express rolls any further down the track, I suggest that everyone read a blog post by Rich Hammond at Kings Insider (and Hammond actually is an insider). He says the Kings view Kovalchuk as a rental only and are having troubles with the Thrashers demand for a roster player-“roster player” is a long way from Dustin Brown or even Jack Johnson, who plays top line minutes for them. I’ll go further than Hammond. About a month ago,Terry Murray (Kings coach) gave a long interview to the LA Times about the “identity” he was trying to create for the Kings. He said it involved grit, cycling down low, working the boards, no freelancing, no individual “heroics”. Now I can see where they might take on Kovy as a rental if they thought they could do some damage in the playoffs-and Hammond’s comments in his blog make me think they don’t feel they are that close yet-but it would be a pretty big rupture between GM and coach if Lombardi brought on Kovalchuk as a permanent addition given Murray’s “vision” for the Kings and the fact that Kovalchuk is the antithesis of what Murray says he wants from his players..
by Big Picture Guy on Jan 27, 2010 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I too find it a bit puzzling how interested Dean Lombardi is in Kovalchuk. And yet the interest is clearly there on his part based on some recent interviews. Whether it makes sense or not, the Thrashers should exploit it for all they can get.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jan 27, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not many good options left
I do not see the Thrashers being able to pull a guy like Brown in a Kovalchuk trade. And it is going to take more than picks to get Buff, Versteeg, and Barker. DW is going to have to hope that someone gets real desperate over the next three weeks.
I agree that this could be a better TEAM without Ilya, if they do the right thing. Then again, we would be a better team if we got a decent return for Hossa…we ended up with a disappointing prospect(who Waddell was in love with), an abysmal Top 6 forward in EC, a very good 3rd liner in Army, and we drafted a project player who is still probably 2-4 years away from having any impact at the NHL level.
Is Dudley the real force behind our good draft and offseason acquisitions last offseason…hopefully so. The Thrashers need to have a better shooting percentage than 25% on this Kovalchuk trade. And I think they need to focus on keeping Afinagenov if possible. He is no Ilya, but he can sometimes be worth the price of admission on his own…he also seems to enjoy Anderson’s offensive schemes.
by btn on Jan 27, 2010 9:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree that Brown is probably a non-starter… but we might be able to get Johnson, Simmonds, Teubert, and another prospect or pick. That’d be a SIGNIFICANT return.
I’m not so sure the Hossa trade is as terrible as everybody makes it out to be. Esposito has been a disappointment so far, but he’s still young. Leveille is a project, but he has tremendous upside. Christensen was awful, but we moved him for Eric O’Dell, another extremely promising prospect. As far as Army… well, I’d hate to see him go. By the way, does a guy who scored 19 even-strength goals in a season really count as just a “very good 3rd liner?” Sure, he’s been slow this season, but Army deserves more credit than that.
I’m all for keeping Max… as long as the pricetag is in the $1-$1.5 million range for a short-ish term… 2 or 3 years.
by timmyf on Jan 27, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
finally
i never thought the hossa trade was as bad as everyone thinks either. not only is army a crowd favorite and good in the community, he produces. he’’s also a very solid penalty killer. like timmyf, i dont know why everyone assumes esposito is already a bust. hes young and sometimes players take several years to develop before teams get a return on them. calgary thought marty st. louis was a bust too and let him walk. lets not repeat a similar mistake prematurely.
i also think Brown is shooting too high. i dont see why lombardi would want to trade a star RW with a ton of leadership for a star rental who still hasnt really proved himself as a leader. LA has a lot of good prospects, especially defensive ones, that would fit well with the team. either way, we’ll be fine or at least no worse than we are now.
by dennylambert!! on Jan 27, 2010 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Chicago will not be able to take another NHL contract in return, their cap squeeze is dire. They will only be able to absorb picks and prospects this summer.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jan 27, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alot of good posts here. Do not forget Kubina and Kozlov will also be traded if the Thrashers are not in the playoff came trade deadline. Lehtonen and his 3 million dollar contract will be gone too after this year. Armstrong is great and I am sure he is someone they want to keep, it’s just not gonna happen. Whether it is a trade or free agency, my guess is he ends up back in Pittsburgh. Regadless, I agree with Falconer. This entire franchise could look completely different and there could be some reason for hope in the wake of losing Kovy.
Everyone talks about the Kings, but I think Calgary is a dark horse for Kovy. They are in a horrible slump and in a bad need of a change. They have some players they want to get rid of. The Sutters are in big trouble if they do not do something quick. They are desperate and this could be to the Thrashers advantage. I think the Rangers (another team in a horrible slump) would overpay for him too, I just do not see them having enough to make it happen.
I completely agree Todd White is a waste of roster space and have little hope for Brian Little too. I do have hope for Esposito still, but 2 knee surgeries is never a good sign.
I suppose this is no big shocker by now, but I know a couple people within the Thrasher organization and they say Kovy is good as gone and they are hoping to do it before the Olympic break. I was really hoping some miracle would happen and they could get him resigned.
by grizzard on Jan 27, 2010 11:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I know that Kozlov has a no trade clause, and I think Kubina can only be traded during the summer according to his contract.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jan 28, 2010 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow. Kozlov has a no trade clause? Surely he would wave that to be traded to a contender for a Cup run. I see him going to the Capitals or back to Buffalo.
by Tim C on Jan 28, 2010 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, No. He has stated in the past that he has no intention of waving his no trade clause. Contender or otherwise.
by SilverRubicon on Jan 28, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You will not get Dustin Brown, period.
As long as Waddell insists on not allowing teams to negotiate with Kovalchuk’s agent prior to a trade, don’t expect the Kings to give up anything substantial. You are totally overestimating Lombardi’s opintion of Kovalchuk. He is an excellent goal scorer who any team would be lucky to have (which is why the Kings are considering him at all), but he doesn’t exactly fit into the Kings gritty cycling, net-crashing, and board-play style.
Lombardi is all about the players like Dustin Brown, Ryan Smyth, Justin Williams, and Wayne Simmonds. Check out Lombardi’s interviews about the level of “compete” he wants from his players. He’s not really that high on “finesse” players, which is why Alexander Frolov is a 3rd line winger on the Kings and probably won’t be coming back next season. It is also why Mike Cammalleri and Patrick O’Sullivan aren’t on the team anymore and why the Kings weren’t willing to bid exorbiant amounts of money on players like Gaborik and Hossa last July.
For the person who said ,“we might be able to get Johnson, Simmonds, Teubert, and another prospect or pick.” That is waaaaaaay to much for a Kovalchuk rental. I doubt that Lombardi would even agree to that even if Kovy agreed to a long-term contract beforehand. You don’t seem to realize how good Simmonds is and how much of a love affair Lombardi and Terry Murray have with him. I highly doubt Lombardi would be willing to give up more than Johnson and a prospect (Teubert) OR pick (2nd round) for a Kovalchuk rental. If he agrees to a long-term contract prior to the trade, then the Kings may give up Johnson, Stoll, Teubert, and a 2nd round pick. If Waddell asks for anything more than that, the Kings will pass and take a crack at Kovalchuk on July 1st.
Our untouchable players: Kopitar, Simmonds, Brown, Smyth, Schenn, Doughty, Quick, and Bernier. Lombardi WILL NOT trade any of these players.
by lakingsfan on Jan 29, 2010 4:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I said “Johnson, Simmonds, Teubert, plus one” but didn’t come up with it. I heard it from elsewhere. I wouldn’t make that trade if I were Lombardi, but it’s not up to me. And the truth about those “untouchable” players is, sadly, everybody is available for a price. Heck, even Gretzky got traded…
by timmyf on Jan 29, 2010 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that everyone is available for a price, and that most of those players would probably be tradable for the right price. However, Kovalchuk is not the right price and Lombardi wouldn’t part with any of them for Kovalchuk, rental or not.
by lakingsfan on Jan 29, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i keep thinking this:
The Kings aren’t going to rent Kovalchuk.
So, if they trade for him, they will sign him.
If they sign him, he’s going to get $7-9MM (cap hit).
In order to manage the cap, the Kings will have to get rid of one of their big contracts ($3-4MM), or else…
…not re-sign Frolov.
The choices are: Brown, Stoll, Williams, Handzus, Greene, Scuderi and Frolov.
Lombardi is certainly NOT going to trade Handzus since he is the hub of the defense. Ditto for Greene and Scuderi. That leaves Brown, Stoll, Williams and Frolov. The Thrashers supposedly want roster players who can help them with this year’s playoff run (which, if true, eliminates Williams) and don’t want UFAs (scratch Frolov).
That’s leaves Stoll and Brown. I’m happy to cough up Stoll, but what are the odds of Waddell going for that? About the same as Lombardi getting Smyth for Quincey and Preissing, I guess.
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jan 29, 2010 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gretzky was sold, really
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jan 29, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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