Kovalchuk Trade Offers--What Could a Trade Bring to Atlanta?
by The Falconer on Jan 15, 2010 1:11 PM EST
31 comments
A few days ago, we asked the other 29 SB Nation writers to propose their trade offers for a Kovalchuk rental. A trade proposal had to take into account Kovalchuk's $6.389 million cap number. The Thrashers would be offering the remaining months on Ilya's current NHL contract. No sign and trade scenarios, since the Thrashers did not allow any teams to negotiation with Hossa and Don Waddell has said that allowing such talks reduces the control of the team dealing the player.
We received some responses from about half of the 30 team writers. There is a wide mixture. Some clubs are not in the playoff hunt and thus a rental is not desired. Other teams have the resources but are pressed up against the cap. And then other teams might have cap space and resources, but they like the chemistry on their roster and don't want to mess with success.
I think that general Atlanta fans will be disappointed with what is being offered. The reality is that a rental player who is a pending UFA is not going to bring a king's ransom in return. Furthermore, this exercise demonstrates that the market for Kovalchuk as a rental is probably just a handful of teams.
Quick Comment from Tim: We thought this would be a fun way to get some offers on the table that Thrashers fans could discuss. Is it better to send him out West where he won't play us as often... but perhaps leave good offers on the table? Are there better offers out there if we focus on prospects rather than taking strong roster players right away. Sadly, there aren't a whole lot of these trade-offs available. Between offers that break the rules (San Jose offering Rob Blake, Ottawa offering Kovalev) to teams that just wanted to offer spare parts, these aren't particularly good. Very few teams were even willing to offer a pick without a re-signing condition. My favorite would probably be the offer from the Kings: I like the unconditional pick and we'd be picking up another young defenseman and a strong defensive prospect, but that's not exactly what the Thrashers need right now. Anyway, here are the offers:
Eastern Conference Responses
Buffalo: They are happy with their roster and unsure how well Kovalchuk would fit in.
Florida: LW Rostislav Olesz (roster player - $3.125M cap hit each season through 2014), C Shawn Matthias (part-time roster player [no room] - $0.795M cap hit each season through 2011, D Keaton Ellerby (non-roster player - $1.3M cap hit each season through 2011), (1) First-round pick in 2011 (conditional with FLA signing Kovy)
New Jersey Devils: Devils offer: Dainius Zubrus (C/RW, $3.4 mil cap hit through 2013, capable of 2nd/3rd lines), Mark Fraser (rookie D-man, currently 6th on Devils depth chart, $500k cap hit, pending RFA), prospect Matt Haloscjil , a conditional 1st round draft pick if Kovy re-signs, and everyone’s favorite: future considerations (Atlanta gets another prospect--although not David Clarkson--if Kovalchuk should re-sign)
New York Islanders: Sean Bergenheim, Jeff Tambellini, Aaron Ness, some long-shot prospect whose inclusion makes Waddell's bosses think he got another body, 2011 1st-round pick (conditional upon Kovalchuk re-signing with the Islanders)/
New York Rangers: Callahan, Higgins, Sanguinetti and a conditional 1st (if he re-signs) for kovy
Ottawa: RW Alex Kovalev, D Brian Lee, Conditional 2010 second-round pick*,Conditional 2011 second-round pick* Conditions: The 2010 second-rounder guaranteed, upgrades to first if Kovalchuk extends in Ottawa; 2011 second-rounder conditional on extension.
Philadelphia Flyers: Our readers have practically come to a consensus, which is remarkable when you consider our group. There's no way that Philly would be able to add Kovalchuk without severely compromising, well, everything.
Pittsburgh: Not enough depth to trade for pending UFA and they won the Cup last year.
Tampa Bay: Intra-division trade of this magnitude is just too improbable.
Washington: two of the three of Eric Fehr, Andrew Gordon, and Francois Bouchard, in addition to a first round pick. You can have another first rounder, in either 2011 or 2012 (your choice) if Kovy re-signs in DC.
Western Conference Responses
Colorado: Would wait until summer to make a pitch to Ilya as a UFA.
Detroit: Valtteri Filppula, Jonathan Ericsson, Ville Leino, 1st round pick in 2010 draft, and a conditional 1st round pick in 2011 draft if he re-signs.
Edmonton: No interest in a rental players as the club would gain the most from a finishing low enough to earn a lottery pick in the NHL Draft.
Kings: Jack Johnson, Colten Teubert, 1st round pick in 2010, conditional pick in 2011 if Ilya signs.
Nashville: Dan Hamhuis (pending UFA), Ryan Jones, along with a conditional draft pick based on playoff performance this season (something like a 3rd, bumping up to a 2nd if they make the WC Final, and a 1st if the SC Finals).
Phoenix: If Kovalchuk doesn't like the ownership situation in ATL then he certainly isn't signing up here!
San Jose: Rob Blake, Ryane Clowe, and a conditional draft.
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That San Jose offer
is as dumb is it could be, who wrote that in?
The Kings do have the clear winner, if that’s what’s being offered, we should take it. If he hasn’t signed by the trade deadline he never will.
Well to be fair, a few of the teams said they were not that interested—and I said that I would print a low offer over no offer if they wanted to make a pitch.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jan 15, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
I'm too sad about the death of Jay Reatard to give anyone any shit
Sorry San Jose blogger, the offer was kind of a waste of time, but I’m sure you are a nice guy/gal.
The Kings Offer
Would set our defense for awhile.
Enstrom and Hainsey are signed through 2012-2013.
Bogosian, Valabik, and Salmela are RFAs through next season.
Kulda and Postma are nearing NHL-readiness.
Johnson is an RFA after 2011-2012.
Teubert was just drafted in 2008.
We’d have two 1st round picks in a very deep 2010 draft to start to rebuild the team.
Still, we’d be losing a LOT of offense… Re-signing guys like Afinogenov and Armstrong would be crucial, and we don’t have a whole lot of scoring talent in the farm. Stapleton is really not going to fill the void, you know? It’d be important to sign somebody as a UFA, there just aren’t a whole lot of guys available.
It’s a really, really tough situation. I’m glad I’m not Don Waddell.
The Kings is good. I like Detriot’s offer too. I think if the Red Wings continue to struggle, they may be desperate and willing to give up a little more.
I like the Wings’ offer for the same reason as the Kings’: at least one guaranteed 1st rounder. I don’t like that they decided to dump a bunch of under-performing players on us. I don’t think they’re particularly interested, though.
exactly
the majority of responses were that there simply wasn’t enough cap space and that risking a great young guy like Filppula for a chance at re-signing Kovy would be too much
by Casey Richey on Jan 16, 2010 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
Rangers and Kings
As Ive been advocating, a trade with LA makes the most sense. However, that offer from NYR looks like a pretty good alternative. We would get a very versatile callahan and a potentially good offensive player in higgins. Plus, we would get a top defensive prospect, which we could always use more of.
Keep in mind that Higgins is a UFA at the end of the season, so we could lose him.
by timmyf on Jan 15, 2010 4:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sadly the Rangers offer is the best one...
Damn that would suck to have Kovy wearing the Rags shirt :(
These offers are even poorer than my modest (or at least I though) expectations… Still, the Rangers or Kings offers are better than losing #17 for nothing comes July 1st. The other ones? Not so much… Maybe that’s why DW is hesitating, the offers are just really poor…
Call me fairweather
But losing Kovy would pretty much ratchet back my fanatacism for this team from super fan to mildly interested. I shouldn’t put that much stock in one player, because I’m a Thrasher fan first before being a fan of one player. This incident will be a microcosm of a long line of ineptness the brass has displayed. But the consistent disappointment that is the management and ownership do not give us fans much to look forward to.
Or he could sign tomorrow and I could eat my words.
Free agents don’t want to come here, young players coming off their rookie contracts will be looking to get out of here the first chance they get. What kind of relationship are the fans going to have if good talent simply doesn’t want to play here? It’s frustrating and needs to be addressed sooner rather than later.
The tough thing, though: as fans become less interested, ownership is also less willing to commit big money. It’s a death spiral.
This is the problem I’ve had with folks who have decided to stop going to games. We need people at the games. Badly. I understand that not everybody can afford to go to many hockey games. It’s expensive. Ridiculously expensive.
But in real sports cities, the fans are there even if the team sucks. If we could get a little of that in Atlanta, I think we’d start to see our team turn around faster than we expected.
People in Atlanta will come to sporting events, but you have to do 2 things.
1) You have to win.
2) You have to have an ownership that they believe in.
Atlanta hockey teams have been stuck with some of the worst owners ever. None of them have been good. So it’s the old argument that if the fans sell out the place the terrible owners who have never done right by the fans will suddenly see the light and start doing right. Of course people like timmyf never consider the possibility that if the owners make more money they may not pump that into the team.
The bottom line, like it or not, in this market is that the ownership has to show a commitment first or the fans won’t follow. There has been no commitment from this ownership to the fans.
I don’t love all the decisions that have been made about this team either, but it’s pretty clear to me:
If we want NHL hockey to stay in Atlanta long-term, people need to go to the games.
As to your two points, #1 is FAR more important than #2. I don’t think the majority of Atlantans care about the ownership situation. Die-hard Thrashers fans care, but they’re a small, teeny, tiny minority.
by timmyf on Jan 16, 2010 12:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
isn't this the town that couldn't
couldn’t sell out a braves playoff game?
by inventor frank on Jan 16, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
14 consecutive years does slightly water down the
excitement, no excuses though. Turner Field’s location has been discussed in length at Talking Chop, not a very accessible location. I guess you, as part of Mets nation, have a lot to be excited about when that pathetic bunch makes it to the playoffs once every 15 years.
Anaheim Ducks Offer
You forgot to include the Anaheim Ducks offer.
A free ticket to Disneyland and a conditional free ticket to California Adventure if he signs with us.
The Actual offers should be better than these
Generally a team’s fans always seem to want to get something without giving up something. This also didn’t take into consideration the competition between team’s offers(does Vancouver really want Calgary to end up with Kovy?). Plus, a few teams that I would have loved to hear from, Boston and Chicago, weren’t on here. I actually think a good deal for both teams would be:
LA gets Kovalchuk
ATL gets Braydon Schenn, Thomas Hickey, Wayne Simmonds, and a conditional 1st.
This doesn’t really affect the Kings’ roster while adding a huge scorer in Kovy. LA has so many young prospects I would think that while losing two of their best, it still wouldn’t hurt their long term plan whether Kovy resigns or not.
BOS gets Kovalchuk
ATL gets Joe Colbourne, Blake Wheeler, Derek Morris(for cap reasons), Toronto’s 1st rounder, Boston’s 1st rounder(conditionally).
Boston quite possibly could be the most desperate team for scoring, thus they could also be the one’s who are willing to give up the most.
Kovy reuniting with Savard could be great for Boston.
CHI gets Kovalchuk
ATL gets Kris Versteeg, Cam Barker, Kyle Beach, and a 1st round pick.
Chicago can get an elite player for their best Cup run in decades while also solving their cap problems for next year. This trade would probably happen if Atlanta put another player or two in the deal, maybe a Joey Craab/Brett Sterling type(low cost 3rd/4th line guys).
Your point about fans overvaluing/undervaluing is on the mark. However one thing with this exercise is that so many teams aren’t in position to make the kind of offer Waddell would hope for. (And of course as you note, two “teams” that might make sense didn’t lodge bids.) They probably weren’t bidding to win, they were just bidding what they thought they could afford.
For the Isles, we certainly acted from that position: Making a bid that is good enough to win simply doesn’t make sense for the franchise. So here’s a starting bid for the price of renting someone who will sell a few jerseys for 10 weeks and then walk. (That said, we did have a few fans willing to bid premium price under what I believe is the mistaken impression Kovalchuk could be talked into staying there.)
But all you need is two serious bidders and you have an auction.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
Or in the Rangers case
we aren’t looking for an auction. If you all like the deal then pull the trigger, otherwise were not going to add more.
Blueshirt Banter: Covering the New York Rangers the only NHL team with three home arenas.
by Joe Fortunato on Jan 16, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
Matt perhaps chose not to list this sign and trade scenario I proposed. On behalf of the Canadiens, I tended a seven body offer for Kovalchuk, if he came contract guaranteed. It went like this:
The Brothers Kostistyn, Pacioretty, Weber, Fischer, Kristo, and rights to Perezhogin and Yemelin. My stipulations, sign both KHL renegades and we are returned a second rounder. Montreal throws in a first rounder in 2011 if a Cup is won with Kovalchuk within two seasons.
A question back for the blog mods...
What would be worse, Kovy resigning for a current cap crippling contract or getting little value from trading him.
I think it’d be worse to sign at the cap max. We’re a budget-limited team, so we simply can’t afford to pay him $11 million/year. A contract like that is also impossible to move.
Even if Kovy just walked away, we still have plenty of young talent. In the absence of that huge contract, we could actually keep most of them in Atlanta for a long time.
Agreed
And that’s what’s so frustrating at this point… If he would have signed for a reasonable amount, he would have done it already. The only way he signs with the Thrashers now is at $10M+, and he is unfortunately not worth them, especially to a cash-strapped team like Atlanta… So between losing him for nothing in July, trading him for spare parts before the Olympics and signing him to a bad contract, there are not many good outcomes for a Thrashers fan :(
by FrenchKheldar on Jan 18, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
As a Caps fan...
I would do that deal in less than a heartbeat… that is so one-sided it’s laughable.
-d
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