What's Wrong with the Thrashers? (Part 1)

There's panic in the streets. There may also be panic in the locker room or perhaps in the executive suites, but should there be panic? Has the team sustained a key injury to an irreplaceable player? No. Has the team seen a dramatic change in the roster? No. Is this the same group of players who played well in October and November? Yes.

Let's put the current drought into a bigger context and see what jumps out of the data. I spent time this week compiling a game log of all 130+ games that Coach John Anderson has coached the Atlanta Thrashers. Let's begin with the basics. Below I have compiled a month-by-month summary of the Thrashers Offense, Defense, Goal Differential, Point Winning Percentage and Point Pace.

 

Month Year GFA GAA Gdiff Win % Pace
Oct 2008 2.40 3.60 -1.20 0.30 49
Nov 2008 3.23 3.46 -0.23 0.50 82
Dec 2008 2.87 3.80 -0.93 0.33 55
Jan 2009 2.85 3.23 -0.38 0.38 63
Feb 2009 3.17 3.25 -0.08 0.54 89
Mar 2009 3.54 3.15 0.38 0.69 114
Apr 2009 3.33 3.00 0.33 0.50 82
Oct 2009 3.40 2.80 0.60 0.55 90
Nov 2009 3.50 2.71 0.79 0.71 117
Dec 2009 2.53 3.80 -1.27 0.30 49
Jan 2010 2.40 4.60 -2.20 0.40 66

 

During the current slump the Thrashers offense has been the weakest we have see under Coach Anderson (except for his first month as coach in October of 2008). The Thrashers have also had their worst two defensive months under Anderson during this slump (that Jan GAA was 3.75 before the Capitals put a snowman on Atlanta). The Goal Differential was positive from March through November of 2009.

Goal Differential is the key stat here because goal differential predicts standing points with 90%+ accuracy. If your team finishes with a positive number in Goal Differential, you'll probably make the playoffs. In the 2008 portion of Coach Anderson's tenure, the Thrashers were outscored by 0.67 margin per game (2.87 GFA -3.54 GAA) and were on pace for just 63 points and a lottery pick in the NHL Draft. In calendar 2009 (spring and fall of 2009) the Thrashers played like a playoff team, outscoring the opposition by an average of 3.16 to 2.96. In Calendar 2010 the team has been outscored by over 2 goals per game (2.40 GFA - 4.60 GAA) and is on pace to win just 66 points--which is a lottery team pace.

Now what has happened here? Is this a lottery team or a playoff team? The Thrashers played playoff level hockey for most of Calendar 2009 and now the team performance has fallen off badly.

I think it might be valuable to review why the Thrashers started playing better back in January of 2009. There was a roster change as Jason Williams was deleted and Rich Peverley added. Ilya Kovalchuk was named Captain and began playing some of his best hockey. Kari Lehtonen returned from injury and posted a terrific SV% until he was injured again. Zach Bogosian returned from his injury and became a top 4 stalwart. Veterans who didn't always execute Anderson's system were subtracted (Havelid, Schneider, Christensen, Williams). And Colin Stuart helped perk up the PK after Christensen was traded.

To summarize the previous paragraph the Thrashers turned around their team performance because of some significant roster changes or major shifts in playing time(Peverley, Stuart, Lehtonen and Bogosian) and because increased team cohesion on the ice and in the locker room.

Now if we think about the current Thrashers roster, rather than ask WHAT has changed, we might ask WHO has changed--and the answer is "nobody"--this is the same group that played well for the past few months. Other than Antropov being hurt, this is the same lineup that played competitive hockey in 2009. The roster is not riddled with injuries. The team didn't make any significant trades or call ups. The same ingredients are present. The pieces that are needed for winning hockey are still around.

I think some of this panic is an over-reaction because the foundation for a competitive hockey team is still in place. If Kovalchuk is retained and they stay healthy at key positions, I still think they can make the playoffs. They were hot and now they're cold, this too shall pass. (More on the hot and cold in my next post!)

Trending Discussions

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Bird Watchers Anonymous

You must be a member of Bird Watchers Anonymous to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bird Watchers Anonymous. You should read them.

Join Bird Watchers Anonymous

You must be a member of Bird Watchers Anonymous to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bird Watchers Anonymous. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.