Analyzing the Battles for Roster Spots
With the last pre-season game (thankfully) over, we can now turn our attention to the final cuts that will be made between now and opening day. The Thrashers need to cut their team down to 23 players by Wednesday at 3pm. Let's take a look at where the team stands.
Up front, we've got 8 skaters who are virtually guaranteed to be with the team on Opening Night: Kovalchuk, Antropov, Little, Kozlov, White, Peverley, Reasoner, and Armstrong. Just four spots on the blueline are decided: Enstrom, Bogosian, Hainsey, and Kubina. There are serious questions in goal. Let's evaluate the 4 battles for those final positions.
The Battle: Kane vs Afinogenov
The Position: 3rd-line Left Wing
The Basics: With 8 of the Top-9 forward spots filled, the last spot will likely be taken by either 2009 1st-round draft pick Evander Kane or pro-tryout Maxim Afinogenov. Neither of these players will remain with the team to play 4th line minutes (or sit in the press box as a 13th forward).
The Dark Horse: Dan Fritsche. He could earn a spot as the penalty-kill specialist badly needed by the anemic Thrashers penalty kill unit. That was only reinforced on Sunday night; the Thrashers gave up 3 powerplay goals to the Lightning. His chances could be hurt by Coach Anderson's willingness to play Kane on the penalty kill; Kane had 2:51 of short-handed time in the final pre-season game.
- Tim: This is a tough one. Don Waddell has said repeatedly that they want Evander to make the Thrashers this season. The coaching staff is giving him every opportunity to stick with the big club. At the Thrashers Fan Club meeting before Sunday's game, however, he also made a revealing comment. [Side note: if you haven't yet joined the Fan Club, you can do so here.] When a question about Max came up, the audience cheered and Don commented, 'Oh, you're making it harder for me now, his agent is probably here. He'll use that against me.' [That's roughly paraphrased from memory, not a direct quote.] I think it comes down to contract: if we can get Max for the right term (short) and money (in the low 2 millions), I think we sign him. If not, Kane sticks with the Thrash.
- EvilMilkshake: If you had the chance to see Evander in the preseason, or even listened on the radio, you could see (or hear) he's not ready. He gets tossed around too easily. It's good to see him on the PK, getting some experience, but he probably wouldn't help in that department this season. He may get the 9-day tryout, but I don't see him sticking with the club all season. My guess is they'll sign Maxim. He's got experience and speed and although he himself may not finish, he creates scoring chances or makes plays on many of his shifts. Pair him with the right players, and his line could rack up some points.
- Aaron: My head says "Evander", but my heart whispers "Maxim!" in an overly tender and loving way. I don't see any downside at all to signing Afinogenov to said short term/low money deal and sending Kane back to Vancouver. I can't imagine Kane's development as a player would be that stunted, and (I could be wrong about this) he's available for recall if needed. Will giving Evander 3rd line minutes give us that little push over the cliff we need to make the playoffs? Doubtful. We've got more depth at the wing than at any time in recent memory - let's not risk anything. Having said that, here's my offical prediction: I'm fairly certain Kane sticks with the big club, and Max walks.
- Tim: I think the Thrashers tipped their hand with the lineup for the final game: Boulton - Slater - Thorburn. Gratton could stay with the Thrashers as a 13th forward and get some time in, but I don't see it happening.
- EvilMilkshake: As much as I've liked Gratton's game, I don't see him staying with the big club either unless it's as the 13th man. He'll most likely be the first call up in the event of a 4th line injury.
- Aaron: The performance of "the best 4th line in the league" last night told us we need a change. Ergo, Boulton - Slater - Thorburn it is and shall stay.
- Tim: You know who hasn't looked great so far this year? Boris Valabik. For guys as big as Boris, it takes some time before they find their feet and learn how to play physical without taking penalties. Personally, I just don't think Valabik is there yet. That said, sending him to Chicago would only stunt his development further. It's a balancing act between over-learning the lesson of Braydon Coburn (big defensemen take time to develop) and having too much faith in a player who isn't performing as well as we'd like. For my money, I think Boris spends some time in Chicago this year with a skating coach while Popovic and Salmela start with the Thrashers. Nathan Oystrick sits in the press box but will occasionally spell the other guys to stay fresh.
- EvilMilkshake: I agree with Tim about Valabik in that he hasn't looked very good at all. He seems to be trying too hard. Valabik has performed well in the past, and it would be a mistake to send him down. So far in the pre-season he's gotten a lot of ice time, so his faults are showing up more. If he stays, expect 3rd pairing minutes only (he hasn't been on the 3rd pairing in most pre-season games) and even press box nights if he has a few bad games. I think Oystrick gets sent down. He hasn't impressed and the Thrashers have more options at defense this season.
- Aaron: John Anderson said in his post-game presser last night that Boris needs to keep moving to improve. I expect Valabik to stick with the club for at least 10-15 games, but after that, look for Oystrick to come up after knocking the cobwebs out in Chicago, if necessary. Salmela & Popovic comprise the bottom D pairing.
- Tim: Don Waddell commented that he was speaking with Legace's agent in an attempt to keep him "within the organization." I won't attempt to read into that comment here, but I'll simply say that Manny's shots at a contract are looking a little better than a few weeks ago. I haven't been overly impressed with Pavelec this pre-season and having some stability in goal would be huge for the Thrashers. I think we'll start the season with Pavelec, Hedberg, and Legace, but I expect some player movement in the near future.
- EvilMilkshake: Having the fortunate opportunity to see Manny's one pre-season game and in behind an Atlanta defense, I'd like to see him here this season. Now granted, the lineup during that game was not all the players on our roster, but he proved he's still got it in my eyes. With the Thrashers current rotation of Hedberg & Pavelec, I believe it would be a mistake to not sign Legace as some added insurance.
- Aaron: I'll go one step further: sign Manny, trade Kari for a solid PKer and tell Pavelec to find some way to not look so scared when he's in an NHL net. The kid can tear it up in the AHL, but has a hard time adjusting with the big club. He'll make a spectacular save, and then look a little weak on the very next shot.
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My guesses
Fritsche stays. I think the final pre-season game drove home the point that the PK must improve and he’ll have a chance to do that. I predict Thorburn gets sent down to make room for Fritsche.
Kane sure didn’t earn a job, but he may be given one anyway.
Salmela, Oystrick and Popovic stay and Valabik is sent down. Maybe it’s time to pull the plug on Valbik.
by Zontar on Sep 28, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Way too early to pull the plug on Valabik. It took almost 5 seasons for Pronger to get his game together and almost 4 for Coburn to get up to speed. Valabik will be going into his 3rd year as a pro. He certainly deserves the benefit of the doubt. It’s not like he’s stagnated, he’s still improving.
by Pogue Mahon on Sep 28, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, as I said in the article:
It’s a balancing act between over-learning the lesson of Braydon Coburn (big defensemen take time to develop) and having too much faith in a player who isn’t performing as well as we’d like.
The question is whether it’s better to 1) bite the bullet and let Valabik play… even though he’s not playing well 2) keep him as a 7th man but give him only sporadic play-time or 3) send him to Chicago where he’ll play big minutes every night and can work on his skating.
I’m starting to lean toward #3. I’m not ready to move him out of the system yet – that day might be a year or two down the road – but we can’t have him staring at more and more pucks going into our net…
by timmyf on Sep 28, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here are my predictions—the downside to mine being that it requires signing some of the pro-tryouts to a real contract and I don’t know that the team will sign 3-4 guys at this point when others already have contracts.
Valabik stays and gets 3rd pairing minutes. I think Oystrick is probably the odd-man out, though it could be Samela just as easily. Valabik might get some time watching from the press box here, but he’ll be with the big team. Popvic played well and should be cheap. He’s earned his job.
I’ve been an advocate of replacing Thorburn but I don’t think it will happen. I think Fritsche might make the roster and I think he rotates playing time in on that 4th line as it is.
I’m predicting Maxim stays and Kane and Gratton go, but that is really just a guess on my part. I don’t think Kane is ready but I wasn’t blown away by Maxim so it is hard to say what the decision will be.
Goalie is the toughest call. They’ve given Pavelec every opportunity to win the starting job, I’m not sure he has. At some point they have to play him and see what happens. I’d prefer Legace to Moose but that does leave contracts to deal with. I think this decision will have a lot to do with their ideas on Kari recovering to be our #1. If they think it happens then I think that decreases the chances of getting a contract done with Legace.
by godsendjen on Sep 28, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Someone astutely pointed out that website roster only lists 23 guys on it. If it is accurate then I guessed baddly. Or I suppose it could just be that folks without contracts don’t show up there since it comes from the NHL feed. http://thrashers.nhl.com/club/roster.htm
by godsendjen on Sep 28, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Max & Manny hasn’t ever been on the roster, to my knowledge. I think contract status (or lack thereof) is the key.
Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com
by aaron b on Sep 28, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is exactly right. Until a player actually has a contract, he’s not on the official roster.
by Zontar on Sep 28, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Players without contracts – Popovic, Legace, Afinogenov are not listed on the roster.
My concern is – who is the 5th defenseman? If one of the top four is out, who steps up? Valabik has looked awful in that role. It doesn’t seem that any of Valabik, Oystrick, Salmela or Popovic can do that. Can we fast-forward Postma’s and Kulda’s development a year?
Max will never play the PK – while in theory Evander might be an effective PKer in a few months. Does that figure into the equation? Does that give Kane an edge in sticking?
The team better learn to stay out of the box if they still can’t kill penalties.
by LetNoneIn on Sep 28, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t list this as a question above because Waddell and Anderson both expect Hainsey to be ready for opening night. Ditto Armstrong, though there’s a higher probability (still low) that he won’t be ready.
Waddell’s comment was that Hainsey could have played last night, if they needed him. It was a pre-season game, so no rush. The Top-4 are solid and those 4 guys are just fighting for 2+1 spots.
by timmyf on Sep 28, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Suprises Await Us All
I have this gut feeling that we’re all gonna be a bit stunned by the next roster moves. My hunch(es):
Afinogenov will be signed, and start as 2nd line RW.
Kane will stay with the team, and start out on the fourth line, much like Stamos did last year with the Bolts. It allows him time to add muscle (and if he can continue to work hard and add weight as he did over the summer, he may be closing in on a much better weight by Christmas). As has been said before, he’s not going to gain much in juniors. If he begins to play up to the NHL level, he’ll see more ice time on special teams, and by the end of the year, he’ll likely be playing closer to 3rd or 2nd line minutes.
One of Bolton or Thorburn will be gone (my gut says Boulton, but I’m going to write Thorburn) and Gratton might make the opening roster as a healthy scratch.
Legace will be signed, and may in fact be the starter on opening night. It’s a big home game before the road trip. I think that the Thrashers might prefer to have a stable if not spectacular netminder in place, and after the Bolts just ripped Pavelec, Coach might want to let him wait for his first start to occur on the road.
Defensively, the only thing that will keep Boris here is if (and I don’t know the answer to this) he’d have to clear waivers if we sent him down. If he isn’t waiver eligible, he’ll be on a flight to Chicago by the end of the day today.
Starting lineup:
Kovalchuk-Antropov-Little
Kozlov-White-Afinogenov
Peverly-Reasoner-Armstrong
Kane-Slater-Boulton
Hainsey-Kubina
Enstrom-Bogosian
Popovic-Salmella
Legace
Pavelec
Scratches: Gratton, Hedberg, Oystrick
by Jarndyce on Sep 28, 2009 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Valabik does NOT have to clear waivers. It’s going to be about 2 years still before this is a worry. That plus his poor play I think have sealed his fate for now. He’ll be in Chicago.
by Zontar on Sep 28, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looks great, but Thorburn was seen taking PK time throughout the preseason (and doing fairly well) with Slater. If anyone loses their 4th line position it’s Boulton, and I think the team is dedicated to having designated muscle, plus he’s been with the team awhile. As far as the final 23 go, that is certainly them, just not sure about the lines.
by DungeonK on Sep 28, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Legace
I guess that’s actually a simple decision, in retrospect. If there’s little clear marginal difference between Legace and Hedberg, why pay them both…
by Jarndyce on Sep 29, 2009 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thorburn vs. Boulton
I think Thorburn is more versatile, and a better skater, and I think makes a better piece for the team. As I said above, my guy says Boulton might be gone, but I have a hard time believing that the team will pull that trigger.
by Jarndyce on Sep 28, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
After last night
Thorburn and Slater have been better on the PK except for last night. Gratton is still on the roster. I say Gratton makes it. Fritsche, although I would love to see him stay because we need help on the PK, may be gone. I just have that gut feeling that Don and Rick are going to make that decision.
I think Popovic will stay and Valabik and Oystrick will go down or see less play time. I see Salmela staying up too. I see Kane going back to Jr., and Afinogenov getting a contract too. I hate it because last night he could not convert a single opportunity even though he did a great job vs. Carolina. I just see him as too inconsistent.
I wonder if Rick Dudley and Don Waddell have kept an eye on Dandenault and Hinote; they are now available too. Hinote is supposed to be a good two way forward. As far as goalie goes, I would like to see Legace start as I think Pavelec is still not ready. But, I have a feeling that Moose is going to start if Pavelec does not. It will be out of loyalty. Legace should be given a contract though and be kept around. I have a feeling he is going to turn a corner a la Khabibulin last year. Just a hunch. We will regret it if we let him go. I don’t see Kari back for 4-6 weeks because as someone else mentioned, he will need conditioning assignments in Chicago before coming back. I say once Kari is healthy, trade him, and go after another #1, like Clemmensen who is now in Florida. I say we find a way to get another indisputable #1 goalie. Enough of this playing around!
by BTF on Sep 28, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The official pr folks incidate that the team likes Boulton’s locker room presence and he is very involved in the community. They had him wearing an A in at least one preseason game. (That isn’t to suggest he’d ever have an A for the regular season, but it says a lot about the way the team looks at him and values his presence and leadership.)
by godsendjen on Sep 28, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it seems like the fourth liners are the most visible when it comes to community events, and that may actually rollover into fan appeal somehow.
Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com
by aaron b on Sep 28, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Update - Fritsche released, contract with Popovic in the works
Kevin Allen on Twitter:
Dan Fritsche was released by the #Atlanta Thrashers and they are trying to negotiate a deal to keep D Mark Popovic.
Both of these were expected… at least according to my predictions.
by timmyf on Sep 28, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
evander
in reference to tim saying kane isn’t ready:
anybody see kane dump a nashville player AND a zebra into the thrashers bench during the 1st period against nashville wednesday? that. was. sweet.
by ablebody on Sep 28, 2009 5:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, so far I’m one of the few saying Kane is ready. Wouldn’t mind bringing Stuart back, though. Looks like he’s been placed on waivers.
by timmyf on Sep 28, 2009 5:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Who was this Nashville player? A 19 yr old? Don’t get me wrong, I think Evander has plenty of talent, but he’s not able to show it with guys beyond 18-20. He’s classified as a power forward for a reason, but when he tries these moves against 28 yr old men, he gets shut down instantly. His body needs to mature and add bulk. As a reference, he’s nowhere near Bogosian’s size last year.
by EvilMilkshake on Sep 28, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manny
We know, now, that Manny has not been signed, and it is a shame but probably a matter of financial decision making. Too bad.
Good luck with Let-em-in and Hed(case)berg.
by KING WIXOM on Sep 29, 2009 12:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Press release
I didn’t like this either. I knew they were going to cut Fritsche and Legace. I think that they will give Kane his 8-9 games to see if he can prove he can play well enough up here. As Waddell said at the STH breakfast on 9/16, “We are going to give Evander every chance to make this team.” To me, it sounds like they are not convinced that he has made the team, but they are going to keep him up as long as they can until he shows that he can make the team.
Ablebody,
he may have done that once, but I agree with Evilmilkshake, that he can’t do it against players who are older, more experienced, and bigger. If you saw the TB game, he just looked like he was getting schooled because he tried going through TB’s lines, and couldn’t. I give Evander props for having the guts to do it and try, but he just couldn’t do it. He has got to put on another 20-25 lbs. of muscle not fat. That or he has to be so fast that he can get around them or something. I know that sending him back to Vancouver may be too easy a situation for him, but he needs the conditioning.
I wonder if they will go after Stuart now that he is on waivers. I hope so as he was a great forechecker and he was a good PKer. We might be able to get him back for a good price. I would LOVE to have him back. I know Falconer likes him too.
I hope Popovic gets the contract; he has earned it! I say he plays 3rd line defense over Boris; put him with Salmela.
As far as the goalie situation goes, I hope that I am wrong; I hope that Pavelec gets it together long enough until Kari comes back. If not, then we have to rely on Moose, and McIntyre as a 3rd contingency. I hope that Kari gets his sh— together too! He needs to prove he was worth this $4 million he is getting paid. If he plays well, I will eat my words, admit I am wrong and apologize on this blog and on other blogs. If not, Waddell and Dudley need to let him walk, and they should go after another #1 goalie. I am tired of this deja vu with goalies every year!!
by BTF on Sep 29, 2009 7:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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