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Analyzing the Battles for Roster Spots

Atlanta Thrashers goalie Ondrej Pavelec (31), of the Czech Republic, lets the puck get past him for a goal by theTampa Bay Lightning during the third period in an NHL preseason hockey game, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009, in Atlanta. Tampa Bay won 5-1. (AP Photo/John Amis)

More photos » John Amis - AP

5 months ago: Atlanta Thrashers goalie Ondrej Pavelec (31), of the Czech Republic, lets the puck get past him for a goal by theTampa Bay Lightning during the third period in an NHL preseason hockey game, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009, in Atlanta. Tampa Bay won 5-1. (AP Photo/John Amis)

With the last pre-season game (thankfully) over, we can now turn our attention to the final cuts that will be made between now and opening day. The Thrashers need to cut their team down to 23 players by Wednesday at 3pm. Let's take a look at where the team stands.

Up front, we've got 8 skaters who are virtually guaranteed to be with the team on Opening Night: Kovalchuk, Antropov, Little, Kozlov, White, Peverley, Reasoner, and Armstrong. Just four spots on the blueline are decided: Enstrom, Bogosian, Hainsey, and Kubina. There are serious questions in goal. Let's evaluate the 4 battles for those final positions.

Star-divide

The Battle: Kane vs Afinogenov

The Position: 3rd-line Left Wing

The Basics: With 8 of the Top-9 forward spots filled, the last spot will likely be taken by either 2009 1st-round draft pick Evander Kane or pro-tryout Maxim Afinogenov. Neither of these players will remain with the team to play 4th line minutes (or sit in the press box as a 13th forward).

The Dark Horse: Dan Fritsche. He could earn a spot as the penalty-kill specialist badly needed by the anemic Thrashers penalty kill unit. That was only reinforced on Sunday night; the Thrashers gave up 3 powerplay goals to the Lightning. His chances could be hurt by Coach Anderson's willingness to play Kane on the penalty kill; Kane had 2:51 of short-handed time in the final pre-season game.

The Twist: Evander Kane cannot be sent to the Chicago Wolves, he would have to return to his junior team, the Vancouver Giants of the WHL. After scoring 48 goals and 96 points with the Giants last year, there is little left for Kane to prove in junior hockey. Maxim Afinogenov, on the other hand, doesn't have a contract with the Thrashers. It would have to be negotiated before Wednesday. His last contract was upward of $3,000,000 a season, and while we could likely sign him for less, signing Max would further stress our budget.

Predictions:

  • Tim: This is a tough one. Don Waddell has said repeatedly that they want Evander to make the Thrashers this season. The coaching staff is giving him every opportunity to stick with the big club. At the Thrashers Fan Club meeting before Sunday's game, however, he also made a revealing comment. [Side note: if you haven't yet joined the Fan Club, you can do so here.] When a question about Max came up, the audience cheered and Don commented, 'Oh, you're making it harder for me now, his agent is probably here. He'll use that against me.' [That's roughly paraphrased from memory, not a direct quote.] I think it comes down to contract: if we can get Max for the right term (short) and money (in the low 2 millions), I think we sign him. If not, Kane sticks with the Thrash.
  • EvilMilkshake: If you had the chance to see Evander in the preseason, or even listened on the radio, you could see (or hear) he's not ready. He gets tossed around too easily. It's good to see him on the PK, getting some experience, but he probably wouldn't help in that department this season. He may get the 9-day tryout, but I don't see him sticking with the club all season. My guess is they'll sign Maxim. He's got experience and speed and although he himself may not finish, he creates scoring chances or makes plays on many of his shifts. Pair him with the right players, and his line could rack up some points.
  • Aaron: My head says "Evander", but my heart whispers "Maxim!" in an overly tender and loving way. I don't see any downside at all to signing Afinogenov to said short term/low money deal and sending Kane back to Vancouver. I can't imagine Kane's development as a player would be that stunted, and (I could be wrong about this) he's available for recall if needed. Will giving Evander 3rd line minutes give us that little push over the cliff we need to make the playoffs? Doubtful. We've got more depth at the wing than at any time in recent memory - let's not risk anything. Having said that, here's my offical prediction: I'm fairly certain Kane sticks with the big club, and Max walks.
The Battle: Boulton vs Thorburn vs Gratton

The Position: 4th-line Wing

The Basics: Tough guys Eric Boulton and Chris Thorburn have some competition this year in the form of pro-tryout Josh Gratton. As a "checking-line" winger, the Thrashers need a skater who can hit, fore- and back-check against the opposition's top lines, and drop the gloves on occasion.

The Twist: Energy-line guys don't normally score two goals in a game, pre-season or not. With a couple solid performances, Josh Gratton is going to make this decision much harder for the Thrashers' coaches.

Predictions:
  • Tim: I think the Thrashers tipped their hand with the lineup for the final game: Boulton - Slater - Thorburn. Gratton could stay with the Thrashers as a 13th forward and get some time in, but I don't see it happening.
  • EvilMilkshake: As much as I've liked Gratton's game, I don't see him staying with the big club either unless it's as the 13th man. He'll most likely be the first call up in the event of a 4th line injury.
  • Aaron: The performance of "the best 4th line in the league" last night told us we need a change. Ergo, Boulton - Slater - Thorburn it is and shall stay.
The Battle: Valabik vs Oystrick vs Salmela vs Popovic

The Positions: Two Bottom-Pairing Defensemen, Reserve Defenseman

The Basics: The Top-4 spots on D are locked up, but the next three are up for grabs. One of Boris Valabik, Nathan Oystrick, Anssi Salmela, and Mark Popovic will be cut before Opening Night. The first three have contracts and Popovic is with the team on a pro-tryout basis.

The Dark Horse: Just like Gratton with the forwards, tryout Popovic is trying to earn a contract by bumping someone from the roster. He's looked good so far, earning 1st Star honors at the first home pre-season game. Also, while not currently in the Thrashers system, Mark was previously a Thrashers prospect, so he's a familiar face within the organization.

Predictions:
  • Tim: You know who hasn't looked great so far this year? Boris Valabik. For guys as big as Boris, it takes some time before they find their feet and learn how to play physical without taking penalties. Personally, I just don't think Valabik is there yet. That said, sending him to Chicago would only stunt his development further. It's a balancing act between over-learning the lesson of Braydon Coburn (big defensemen take time to develop) and having too much faith in a player who isn't performing as well as we'd like. For my money, I think Boris spends some time in Chicago this year with a skating coach while Popovic and Salmela start with the Thrashers. Nathan Oystrick sits in the press box but will occasionally spell the other guys to stay fresh.
  • EvilMilkshake: I agree with Tim about Valabik in that he hasn't looked very good at all. He seems to be trying too hard. Valabik has performed well in the past, and it would be a mistake to send him down. So far in the pre-season he's gotten a lot of ice time, so his faults are showing up more. If he stays, expect 3rd pairing minutes only (he hasn't been on the 3rd pairing in most pre-season games) and even press box nights if he has a few bad games. I think Oystrick gets sent down. He hasn't impressed and the Thrashers have more options at defense this season.
  • Aaron: John Anderson said in his post-game presser last night that Boris needs to keep moving to improve. I expect Valabik to stick with the club for at least 10-15 games, but after that, look for Oystrick to come up after knocking the cobwebs out in Chicago, if necessary. Salmela & Popovic comprise the bottom D pairing.
The Battle: Pavelec vs Hedberg vs Legace vs Lehtonen

The Positions: Starting and Backup Goaltender

The Basics: The Thrashers have lacked stability in goal for much of their history. Superstitious fans might say the team has something of a "goalie curse," and if you were around for the 2005 - 2006 season, you got to see an almost shocking number of goalies. (Adam Berkhoel and Steve Shields, anyone?) 2nd-overall pick Kari Lehtonen was supposed to be the future between the pipes, but repeated injuries have caused concern. Backup goaltender Johan Hedberg fills in admirably, but he isn't going to be a solution for the top job. Stanley Cup winner and former All-Star Manny Legace was invited to camp as a pro tryout, and the Thrashers are also auditioning top prospect Ondrej Pavelec for the starting job.

The Dark Horse: Three of these goalies have contracts. One of these goalies does not. Still, Manny Legace has had an impressive career thus far: 177-92-18-23 with a 0.912 save percentage and 2.38 GAA in the NHL. His last losing season in the NHL? 1998 - 1999 with the Los Angeles Kings. If not for an unfortunate tumble on a carpet placed for Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin, so the story goes, Manny would still be a part of the rotation with the St. Louis Blues. In his short playing time with the Thrashers, he's looked solid. Don't overlook the importance of his character: Manny's a fun guy, and the Thrashers are a team that is striving to maintain a unified locker room.

The Twist: Kari Lehtonen is injured. Thrashers fans probably won't be surprised by that statement. It's looking like Kari will spend the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season on the injured reserve, meaning he won't count against the player limit of 23. Once he goes onto IR (on Wednesday at 3pm), he must remain there for at least two weeks. When he's back and ready to play, he could see time in Chicago on a conditioning stint. Assuming the team carries 13 forwards and 7 defensemen, they can carry 3 goalies. Does that mean two for the start of the season and three once Kari returns? Or does it mean three for the start of the season and some player movement in the future?

Predictions:
  • Tim: Don Waddell commented that he was speaking with Legace's agent in an attempt to keep him "within the organization." I won't attempt to read into that comment here, but I'll simply say that Manny's shots at a contract are looking a little better than a few weeks ago. I haven't been overly impressed with Pavelec this pre-season and having some stability in goal would be huge for the Thrashers. I think we'll start the season with Pavelec, Hedberg, and Legace, but I expect some player movement in the near future.
  • EvilMilkshake: Having the fortunate opportunity to see Manny's one pre-season game and in behind an Atlanta defense, I'd like to see him here this season. Now granted, the lineup during that game was not all the players on our roster, but he proved he's still got it in my eyes. With the Thrashers current rotation of Hedberg & Pavelec, I believe it would be a mistake to not sign Legace as some added insurance.
  • Aaron: I'll go one step further: sign Manny, trade Kari for a solid PKer and tell Pavelec to find some way to not look so scared when he's in an NHL net. The kid can tear it up in the AHL, but has a hard time adjusting with the big club. He'll make a spectacular save, and then look a little weak on the very next shot.
Feel free to comment below and let us know who you think will earn a spot to start the season.

0 recs  |  Comment 24 comments |

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My guesses

Fritsche stays. I think the final pre-season game drove home the point that the PK must improve and he’ll have a chance to do that. I predict Thorburn gets sent down to make room for Fritsche.

Kane sure didn’t earn a job, but he may be given one anyway.

Salmela, Oystrick and Popovic stay and Valabik is sent down. Maybe it’s time to pull the plug on Valbik.

by Zontar on Sep 28, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Way too early to pull the plug on Valabik. It took almost 5 seasons for Pronger to get his game together and almost 4 for Coburn to get up to speed. Valabik will be going into his 3rd year as a pro. He certainly deserves the benefit of the doubt. It’s not like he’s stagnated, he’s still improving.

by Pogue Mahon on Sep 28, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, as I said in the article:

It’s a balancing act between over-learning the lesson of Braydon Coburn (big defensemen take time to develop) and having too much faith in a player who isn’t performing as well as we’d like.

The question is whether it’s better to 1) bite the bullet and let Valabik play… even though he’s not playing well 2) keep him as a 7th man but give him only sporadic play-time or 3) send him to Chicago where he’ll play big minutes every night and can work on his skating.

I’m starting to lean toward #3. I’m not ready to move him out of the system yet – that day might be a year or two down the road – but we can’t have him staring at more and more pucks going into our net…

by timmyf on Sep 28, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here are my predictions—the downside to mine being that it requires signing some of the pro-tryouts to a real contract and I don’t know that the team will sign 3-4 guys at this point when others already have contracts.

Valabik stays and gets 3rd pairing minutes. I think Oystrick is probably the odd-man out, though it could be Samela just as easily. Valabik might get some time watching from the press box here, but he’ll be with the big team. Popvic played well and should be cheap. He’s earned his job.

I’ve been an advocate of replacing Thorburn but I don’t think it will happen. I think Fritsche might make the roster and I think he rotates playing time in on that 4th line as it is.

 I’m predicting Maxim stays and Kane and Gratton go, but that is really just a guess on my part. I don’t think Kane is ready but I wasn’t blown away by Maxim so it is hard to say what the decision will be.

Goalie is the toughest call. They’ve given Pavelec every opportunity to win the starting job, I’m not sure he has. At some point they have to play him and see what happens. I’d prefer Legace to Moose but that does leave contracts to deal with. I think this decision will have a lot to do with their ideas on Kari recovering to be our #1. If they think it happens then I think that decreases the chances of getting a contract done with Legace.

by godsendjen on Sep 28, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Someone astutely pointed out that website roster only lists 23 guys on it. If it is accurate then I guessed baddly. Or I suppose it could just be that folks without contracts don’t show up there since it comes from the NHL feed. http://thrashers.nhl.com/club/roster.htm

by godsendjen on Sep 28, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Max & Manny hasn’t ever been on the roster, to my knowledge. I think contract status (or lack thereof) is the key.

Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com

by aaron b on Sep 28, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is exactly right. Until a player actually has a contract, he’s not on the official roster.

by Zontar on Sep 28, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Players without contracts – Popovic, Legace, Afinogenov are not listed on the roster.

My concern is – who is the 5th defenseman? If one of the top four is out, who steps up? Valabik has looked awful in that role. It doesn’t seem that any of Valabik, Oystrick, Salmela or Popovic can do that. Can we fast-forward Postma’s and Kulda’s development a year?

Max will never play the PK – while in theory Evander might be an effective PKer in a few months. Does that figure into the equation? Does that give Kane an edge in sticking?

The team better learn to stay out of the box if they still can’t kill penalties.

by LetNoneIn on Sep 28, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I didn’t list this as a question above because Waddell and Anderson both expect Hainsey to be ready for opening night. Ditto Armstrong, though there’s a higher probability (still low) that he won’t be ready.

Waddell’s comment was that Hainsey could have played last night, if they needed him. It was a pre-season game, so no rush. The Top-4 are solid and those 4 guys are just fighting for 2+1 spots.

by timmyf on Sep 28, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Suprises Await Us All

I have this gut feeling that we’re all gonna be a bit stunned by the next roster moves. My hunch(es):

Afinogenov will be signed, and start as 2nd line RW.

Kane will stay with the team, and start out on the fourth line, much like Stamos did last year with the Bolts. It allows him time to add muscle (and if he can continue to work hard and add weight as he did over the summer, he may be closing in on a much better weight by Christmas). As has been said before, he’s not going to gain much in juniors. If he begins to play up to the NHL level, he’ll see more ice time on special teams, and by the end of the year, he’ll likely be playing closer to 3rd or 2nd line minutes.

One of Bolton or Thorburn will be gone (my gut says Boulton, but I’m going to write Thorburn) and Gratton might make the opening roster as a healthy scratch.

Legace will be signed, and may in fact be the starter on opening night. It’s a big home game before the road trip. I think that the Thrashers might prefer to have a stable if not spectacular netminder in place, and after the Bolts just ripped Pavelec, Coach might want to let him wait for his first start to occur on the road.

Defensively, the only thing that will keep Boris here is if (and I don’t know the answer to this) he’d have to clear waivers if we sent him down. If he isn’t waiver eligible, he’ll be on a flight to Chicago by the end of the day today.

Starting lineup:

Kovalchuk-Antropov-Little
Kozlov-White-Afinogenov
Peverly-Reasoner-Armstrong
Kane-Slater-Boulton

Hainsey-Kubina
Enstrom-Bogosian
Popovic-Salmella

Legace
Pavelec

Scratches: Gratton, Hedberg, Oystrick

by Jarndyce on Sep 28, 2009 12:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Valabik does NOT have to clear waivers. It’s going to be about 2 years still before this is a worry. That plus his poor play I think have sealed his fate for now. He’ll be in Chicago.

by Zontar on Sep 28, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looks great, but Thorburn was seen taking PK time throughout the preseason (and doing fairly well) with Slater. If anyone loses their 4th line position it’s Boulton, and I think the team is dedicated to having designated muscle, plus he’s been with the team awhile. As far as the final 23 go, that is certainly them, just not sure about the lines.

by DungeonK on Sep 28, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Legace
Never mind.

I guess that’s actually a simple decision, in retrospect. If there’s little clear marginal difference between Legace and Hedberg, why pay them both…

by Jarndyce on Sep 29, 2009 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thorburn vs. Boulton

I think Thorburn is more versatile, and a better skater, and I think makes a better piece for the team. As I said above, my guy says Boulton might be gone, but I have a hard time believing that the team will pull that trigger.

by Jarndyce on Sep 28, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

After last night

Thorburn and Slater have been better on the PK except for last night. Gratton is still on the roster. I say Gratton makes it. Fritsche, although I would love to see him stay because we need help on the PK, may be gone. I just have that gut feeling that Don and Rick are going to make that decision.

I think Popovic will stay and Valabik and Oystrick will go down or see less play time. I see Salmela staying up too. I see Kane going back to Jr., and Afinogenov getting a contract too. I hate it because last night he could not convert a single opportunity even though he did a great job vs. Carolina. I just see him as too inconsistent.

I wonder if Rick Dudley and Don Waddell have kept an eye on Dandenault and Hinote; they are now available too. Hinote is supposed to be a good two way forward. As far as goalie goes, I would like to see Legace start as I think Pavelec is still not ready. But, I have a feeling that Moose is going to start if Pavelec does not. It will be out of loyalty. Legace should be given a contract though and be kept around. I have a feeling he is going to turn a corner a la Khabibulin last year. Just a hunch. We will regret it if we let him go. I don’t see Kari back for 4-6 weeks because as someone else mentioned, he will need conditioning assignments in Chicago before coming back. I say once Kari is healthy, trade him, and go after another #1, like Clemmensen who is now in Florida. I say we find a way to get another indisputable #1 goalie. Enough of this playing around!

by BTF on Sep 28, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The official pr folks incidate that the team likes Boulton’s locker room presence and he is very involved in the community. They had him wearing an A in at least one preseason game. (That isn’t to suggest he’d ever have an A for the regular season, but it says a lot about the way the team looks at him and values his presence and leadership.)

by godsendjen on Sep 28, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

it seems like the fourth liners are the most visible when it comes to community events, and that may actually rollover into fan appeal somehow.

Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com

by aaron b on Sep 28, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Update - Fritsche released, contract with Popovic in the works

Kevin Allen on Twitter:

Dan Fritsche was released by the #Atlanta Thrashers and they are trying to negotiate a deal to keep D Mark Popovic.

Both of these were expected… at least according to my predictions.

by timmyf on Sep 28, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

evander

in reference to tim saying kane isn’t ready:
anybody see kane dump a nashville player AND a zebra into the thrashers bench during the 1st period against nashville wednesday? that. was. sweet.

by ablebody on Sep 28, 2009 5:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

evilmilkshake, sorry, not tim.

by ablebody on Sep 28, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, so far I’m one of the few saying Kane is ready. Wouldn’t mind bringing Stuart back, though. Looks like he’s been placed on waivers.

by timmyf on Sep 28, 2009 5:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Who was this Nashville player? A 19 yr old? Don’t get me wrong, I think Evander has plenty of talent, but he’s not able to show it with guys beyond 18-20. He’s classified as a power forward for a reason, but when he tries these moves against 28 yr old men, he gets shut down instantly. His body needs to mature and add bulk. As a reference, he’s nowhere near Bogosian’s size last year.

by EvilMilkshake on Sep 28, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Manny

We know, now, that Manny has not been signed, and it is a shame but probably a matter of financial decision making. Too bad.

Good luck with Let-em-in and Hed(case)berg.

by KING WIXOM on Sep 29, 2009 12:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Press release

I didn’t like this either. I knew they were going to cut Fritsche and Legace. I think that they will give Kane his 8-9 games to see if he can prove he can play well enough up here. As Waddell said at the STH breakfast on 9/16, “We are going to give Evander every chance to make this team.” To me, it sounds like they are not convinced that he has made the team, but they are going to keep him up as long as they can until he shows that he can make the team.

Ablebody,
he may have done that once, but I agree with Evilmilkshake, that he can’t do it against players who are older, more experienced, and bigger. If you saw the TB game, he just looked like he was getting schooled because he tried going through TB’s lines, and couldn’t. I give Evander props for having the guts to do it and try, but he just couldn’t do it. He has got to put on another 20-25 lbs. of muscle not fat. That or he has to be so fast that he can get around them or something. I know that sending him back to Vancouver may be too easy a situation for him, but he needs the conditioning.

I wonder if they will go after Stuart now that he is on waivers. I hope so as he was a great forechecker and he was a good PKer. We might be able to get him back for a good price. I would LOVE to have him back. I know Falconer likes him too.

I hope Popovic gets the contract; he has earned it! I say he plays 3rd line defense over Boris; put him with Salmela.

As far as the goalie situation goes, I hope that I am wrong; I hope that Pavelec gets it together long enough until Kari comes back. If not, then we have to rely on Moose, and McIntyre as a 3rd contingency. I hope that Kari gets his sh— together too! He needs to prove he was worth this $4 million he is getting paid. If he plays well, I will eat my words, admit I am wrong and apologize on this blog and on other blogs. If not, Waddell and Dudley need to let him walk, and they should go after another #1 goalie. I am tired of this deja vu with goalies every year!!

by BTF on Sep 29, 2009 7:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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