Thrashers - Nashville Home Game Analysis
Defense Ice Time
- 22:46 Zach Bogosian
- 22:05 Pavel Kubina
- 20:41 Tobias Enstrom
- 17:25 Nathan Oystrick
- 17:03 Boris Valabik
- 15:28 Mark Popovic
Forward Ice Time
- 20:39 Ilya Kovalchuk
- 17:04 Bryan Little
- 16:45 Evander Kane
- 16:04 Nik Antropov
- 15:03 Rich Peverley
- 13:38 Chris Thorburn
- 13:24 Jim Slater
- 12:05 Joey Crabb
- 12:00 Dan Fritsche
- 11:40 Maxim Afinogenov
- 11:27 Tim Stapleton
- 08:37 Josh Gratton
The Predators brought their 2nd line, but left their 1st line back home. They brought pretty good defensemen as well. Probably the closest thing to a game featuring a balanced lineup so far in the pre-season.
Team discipline was a problem as the Predators ended up with 12:40 minutes of Power Play ice to the Thrashers 4:10 with the man advantage. The total shots are rather misleading in this context because of the special teams disparity. The Thrashers were certainly even of better in the scoring chances department at even strength.
One reason the Thrashers ended up short is that guys took penalties standing up for teammates after some borderline hits (Tootoo was involved--shockingly!). Kovalchuk and Enstrom both got tagged and Kubina and Throburn went to the box while trying to send a message. Valabik took a minor after leveling a guy who came into Pavelec's crease. Discipline is going to be important in the regular season, but it is a good sign that players care about their teammates--that hasn't always been the case in Atlanta. I've seen some bad hits where nobody did anything to send a message. It is yet another sign that this locker room is good and has fewer cliques than in the past.
**Falconer's take:
Kovalchuk-Antropov-Little Line: Looks ready to go to me. Ilya is just flying around in the pre-season and looks extremely excited about this year. I saw more sustained offensive zone shifts from this line again, which is another positive sign. Heading into this year, I was worried Bryan Little might have trouble matching his numbers of last year--but Ilya and Nik seem to get all of the attention of opposing defensemen leaving him wide open to shoot.
Enstrom-Bogosian: They looked like they were both in mid-season form (they were both +3 in the game). They played extremely well and read off each other like they have played together for years. The biggest danger might be that the coaching staff overplays them early and wears them out, but they are both young and have lots of energy.
Nathan Oystrick: Made a really bad decision to pinch up late in the 3rd period and missed. This left his D partner Pavel Kubina alone defending a 2>1 and the open man scored on Pavelec to cut the lead down to 5-3 and it gave Predators new life. I know Anderson likes offense from his D, but with just under 4 minutes left and a 2 goal lead you don't need to make low probability plays.
Mark Popovic: I noticed him much less last night, but looking at the ice time he also played a lot less. He made a mistake at one point but I can't remember now what it was.
Boris Valabik: His skating looks so much better this fall it is very noticeable. However, he got blown around a couple of times in this game. And he can't go to the penalty box alone so often. He led all Thrashers with 6:42 on the PK.
Jim Slater: I've been hard on him in the past, but he's looked pretty good in both pre-season games. With his hustle he got a loose puck to Josh Gratton who scored from way over on the wall for the 1st goal of the game.
Tim Stapleton: I suspect he will start the year in Chicago, but he could be called up if the Thrashers have an injury on a scoring line. He made a terrific pass to set up Josh Gratton's 2nd goal. It was a 2>1 rush and the opposing defenseman went down to block off the passing lane. Stapleton kept going and the moment he was clear of the sprawled out D-man's skate he made a hard pass right to the slot which Gratton put past the goalie. For my money Stapleon looks like he has the puck skills to jump in and not hold back a scoring line. His lack of size makes it unlikely he would end up on a checking line.
Maxim Afinogenov: He looked a little raw early. He lost the puck twice on his 1st or 2nd shift of the game. Once he got his feet under him the NHL speed was apparent. He had one of his typical rushes where he flies up the ice, makes some stickhandling moves, shot, glove save.
Ondrej Pavelec: Still has problems overplaying the puck once or twice a game--he got lucky both times. One Nashville player mishandled the puck and on the other his D-man got to the rebound first. The 3rd Nashville goal, which gave them renewed life in a blow out at 17:52 of the 3rd, probably should not have gone in. Maybe I'm being too harsh because it was a 2>1 pass right to the slot.
Evander Kane: He looked much better last night than when they played the Predators one week ago. He looked more confident and fluid in his skating. He had a couple of shot attempts. He still has a lot to learn in terms of exploiting NHL defenseman, but you can see that he has the foundation to be a very exciting player down the road.
Josh Gratton: Could he really steal Eric Boulton's job? I'm not an expert on fighters, but he showed some very nice hands last night. On both plays, the passer deserves some credit, but Gratton did his part and finished. The 1st one was a bad goal for the Nashville goalie, but the 2nd goal was a nice bang-bang play at the net.
Joey Crabb Vs Dan Fritsche: These two guys are probably battling for the same job. Both were +1 and got some time on the PK. I don't see a huge difference between them, but I liked Crabb a little better last night.
Pavel Kubina: I'm very impressed by how he can lean on people and not get called for interference. He's big and he is constantly in the way of opposing forwards. He must be annoying as hell to play against. I just hope regular season refs don't start calling him for that stuff.
**Tim's Take:
I figured I'd chime in with a few additional comments. Falconer and I seemed to have different impressions of Boris Valabik, for one.
Boris Valabik: Yes, his skating looks better than last year, but he was barely able to keep up out there. Rather than play D deep in the Thrashers' defensive-zone, he seemed like he was always trying to hang by the face-off circle. This was giving him an advantage in getting up to the neutral zone with the team, but he was leaving his defensive partner all alone near the net. I think Boris has the right tools to play in the NHL, but I'm not sure if he's a good fit for our system this year.
Evander Kane: We all expect rookie mistakes, but what I saw from Evander Kane last night was important: he looks like he can keep up with NHL-sized players. He played strong on the puck, and while he got pushed off a few times, he'd go right back after it. He has a tenacity that will help him adjust to the NHL game faster. We will hopefully get to see him for the whole year, but at the very least, I expect a 9-game tryout.
Maxim Afinogenov: I was at the game with my girlfriend and we were sitting next to a couple people who were at their first hockey game. Every time Max got the puck, they were oooh-ing and aaah-ing. I'm not saying that we should sign Max because he's an exciting player, but for a city that needs to create some excitement around hockey, this guy is a heck of a lot of fun to watch. Sign him for Todd White-money (low-to-middle $2 million range) and I'm satisfied. I'd play him with Kane and White or Peverley and watch them zoom all over the place ... *or* ... play him with Peverley and Armstrong (a guy who can go hard to the net and finish the chances that Maxim generates.)
Josh Gratton: A lot of folks say we have the best 4th line in the NHL. They say that because our 4th line buzzes around and generates a lot of chances. This is true... but generating chances means nothing if you can't finish them. Josh Gratton showed an ability to finish chances last night. Conventional wisdom is that he's challenging for Boulton's spot... it'll be interesting to see where this goes.
Ondrej Pavelec: He looks ready to go. It'll be interesting to see how Legace plays on Friday (or Sunday).
Enstrom-Bogosian: Did you think these guys were just a flash-in-the-pan? Guess what? They aren't.
Kovalchuk-Antropov-Little: Those are three names you'll be hearing from our PA guy in scoring announcements... a lot... I will say, though, that Kovalchuk seemed somewhat tentative to shoot at times. I know he's got some scorers on his line now, but Kovy, please, for the love of God, SHOOT!
That's it from me for now, but I hope to have more to say if/when there are some cuts today. So far everybody is at the morning skate, so it's up in the air as to whether they make cuts.
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15 comments
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Comments
I’m willing to give Valabik a little more rope than most of the other guys because of his size on the PK and his intimidation factor as a fighter. But he can’t play as poorly as he did last night, but I’ve seen better from him. Of all the defenders Valabik is probably the most in need on fine tuning by the coaches. He is still learning how to play in the NHL with his size and footspeed, while also learning how to play near the edge without going over too often.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Sep 24, 2009 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very good analysis and I am in agreement on most points.
My standouts:
Stapleton: Shows good vision and plays bigger than his size. He’s everything Sterling should have been. I hope to see him sooner than later. If ATL goes with 3 scoring lines, I think he’s your guy. Waddell won the hell out of that trade with Toronto.
Kane: Definitely a work in progress. He seems pretty tentative still but I suppose that’s to be expected at this point. 18 years old and playing in the NHL has got to do a number on a guy initially anyway. Shows much promise though. When he gets comfortable, he is going to be tough on opposing defenses.
Gratton: Excellent presence in front of the net. Defensively responsible. Always moving. There’s not much to not like abou the guy. I hope he sticks but I have a feeling I’m gonna have a hard pill to swallow if he does- I’m a big fan of the Greek Gods.
Popovic: I have always enjoyed this guy’s game tremendously. I was excited to see him invited to camp. He looked much better than both Oystrick and Valabik last night in terms of his ability to carry the puck and create. He did manage to get himself completely removed from the play which led to that 4th goal though. Didn’t like that so much but to his credit- he was crosschecked and it was not called.
Antro and Kubina are just great additions. Max I could take or leave. Very accurate assessment of his rushes- lots of incredible skating and puck handling leading right up to a glove save. I got a good chuckle out of that. He’s exciting and I have a feeling that if it comes down as the staff equally liking Kane, Stapleton, and Max- the team likely goes with Max. If it doesn’t work out, they can always release or trade him and go to one of the other options. Its good to have depth.
The goalie situation is such a mess that I don’t feel like commenting. I’m gonna trust in JA and DW to put the best tandem on the roster and keep my fingers crossed.
Overall- I feel cautiously optimistic about this team. They look better than ever.
by Tappers#3 on Sep 24, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Couldn’t be at the game, but listened to most of it.
Watching the highlights, the 2nd(?) Nashville goal looked like a rebound that Pavs hesitated on and the Preds capitalized.
The third Nashville goal looked like Santorelli caught Ondrej napping or nervous or something.
I don’t know how many of these 5-4 games I can take…
Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com
by aaron b on Sep 24, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Question—I know Boulton and Gratton are both fighters…but it sounds to me like Gratton could have the chops to replace Thorburn. I hear Boulton is a great locker room presence and that probably contributes to his extended stay here in Atlanta. I guess the question is how important is Thorburn in generating the 4th line chances? Can Slater and Boulton generate enough chances to feed Gratton at the net and make that line a little more productive?
It sounds like Popovic has probably earned a D spot and I’d assume Oystrick and Samela are battling for the last one. (They might be better than Valabik, but I think the team lets him develop for another year because he has potential.)
by godsendjen on Sep 24, 2009 1:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure our 4th line is anywhere close to productive, Gratton or not. Keep in mind, Thorburn did have 7 goals last year. While not a lot, for a 4th liner, that’s not bad. Gratton could be penciled in for an optimistic 5 goals.
My bigger concern are the stats like plus-minus, shots for/against, etc. For example, per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time, let’s look at +/-, SF, SA for our Greek Gods for last season:
Eric Boulton: -0.42, 24.8 SF, 30.5 SA
Jim Slater: -0.12, 26.7 SF, 29.2 SA
Chris Thorburn: -0.78, 25.3 SF, 29.1 SA
Slater seems to have significantly better statistics. Now, I’m not certain if this is because he missed a lot of the season when the Thrashers were really, really bad or not, but my gut tells me he’s one of the more effective guys on this line.
The difference between shots-for and shots-against while a player is on the ice is called their Corsi rating. This is one that you can use to determine who is fore- and back-checking effectively. Last year, the Thrashers only had one player with a positive (more shots for than against while on ice) Corsi at 5-on-5: Colby Armstrong. Of the Greek Gods, Eric Boulton does very, very poorly. In fact, he’s the worst on the team. That said, his +/- is better than Thorburn’s.
It’s a mixed bag. I think Slater deserves to keep a spot. I think one of Boulton or Thorburn could be up in the air… except for Johnny’s comments about forward spots. He said two were up-for-grabs… I assume those are the 3rd line LW spot (Kane, Afinogenov) and the 13th spot. So I wouldn’t expect any changes to the 4th line.
by timmyf on Sep 24, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Grip a grip people!
The kid had ONE good night.
Take a breath!
My sources tell me he’s on the next bus to the City Of Brotherly Love: Chicago!
This blog takes a nose dive once The Falconer stops writing.
I know how it feels (I’m looking at YOU Harry Pohl!)
by J.K. Sockey on Sep 24, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Chris Gratton
His two goals last night are an NHL career high!
He’s on pace for 164 goals!
He’s a schmoe and NOT an NHL schmoe.
by J.K. Sockey on Sep 24, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one good night?
Duh…try two good nights, Socker. He’s got 2 goals last night and layed down the badass last week with a couple donnies and a see ya.
by Gumpucks on Sep 25, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh stuff a sock in it JK. That 4th line is so bad that changing it for the sake of chagne is a good enough reason.
by godsendjen on Sep 24, 2009 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thrashers news
This just in…
The Thrashers have delayed roster cuts. What? With 30-something guys on the roster they couldn’t even decide on 1 or 2 guys to send down?
Now, for the very bad news. In a trade whose pointlessness will be debated for a long time but which is sure to please the fans who are poor judges of talent, Steve McCarthy has been re-acquired for “future considerations”. Please oh please let this be because the Wolves need someone and NOT because he is seriously going to be allowed to challenge for a spot on the team.
by Zontar on Sep 24, 2009 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Press Release states he will report directly to the Chicago Wolves.
by timmyf on Sep 24, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, Mac’s had a fan in me since he worked Ruutu like a job after Ruutu’s knee-on-knee with Kovy in ’08.
Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com
by aaron b on Sep 24, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Video of said jobbing
Right around the 1:18 mark, you can see McCarthy jump to his teammates defense and Ruutu subsequently turtle.
At least Mac didn’t get bit…
Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com
by aaron b on Sep 24, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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