Atlanta Thrashers 2009-2010 Season Preview
by The Falconer on Sep 15, 2009 1:58 AM EDT
21 comments
2008-09 Season Recap Recap
It was a tale of two halves for the Thrashers. In the first half they went 13-23-5 and were on pace for 62 points and perhaps the #1 overall draft pick. In the second half, they went 21-18-1 and were on pace of 86 points which would have left them short of the playoffs, but in the hunt. It was a season of getting younger as veterans were traded away and young players stepped up their game. Perhaps, most impressive was how the Thrashers crushed the hopes of many teams hungry for playoff points in March. Down the stretch the Thrashers went 6-2 against playoff bubble teams. Were the Thrashers just "hot" or did they turn a corner last spring? The 2009-10 season will help answer that question.
Who's In
The Thrashers added NHL regulars Nik Antropov (via free agency) and Pavel Kubina (via a trade with Toronto). Two other players (Anssi Salmela and Rich Peverley) were acquired in the 2nd half and will have their first full season in Atlanta. Evander Kane was drafted 4th overall this summer and appears poised to make the roster. NHL veterans Jason Krog, Anthony Stewart, Joey Crabb and Dan Fritsche are in the mix for the final forward spots along with prospects Spencer Machacek, Angelo Esposito, and Jordan LaVallee. Noah Welch and Mark Popovic are battling Nathan Oystrick and Anssi Salmela for the final defense spots.
Who's Out
Eric Perrin was unhappy with his role last season, and after no team claimed him from waivers, he departed for Europe this summer. Rugged Garnet Exelby and Colin Stuart were sent to Toronto in the Kubina trade. Niclas Havelid and Mathieu Schneider were both traded at the deadline. Forward Jason Williams was dealt mid-season and Erik Christensen left at the trade deadline.
(more after the jump)
Team Strengths
This team can score in bunches. Last year the Thrashers finished 9th in Goal Scored--ahead of 8 other playoff teams. The Thrashers power play finished 11th in PP%--which was better than 9 other playoff teams. They scored 257 goals despite the fact that the 1st line severely under performed during the first half. Kovalchuk was passing too much, Jason Williams didn't play Coach Anderson's system and Eric Christensen left his confidence in Pittsburgh. Kovalchuk caught on fire after being named Captain and ripped off a furious 2nd half. Zach Bogosian and Tobias Enstrom thrived while playing with each other after their veteran partners departed. With the swap of Exelby for Kubina and the Nik Antropov replacing the Jason Williams/Rich Peverly combo, I would not be stunned if this team finished in the top 5 in team offense.
The Thrashers defense has more skill than at any point in team history. Each member of the top four can make a good outlet pass. The addition of Kubina greatly upgrades the passing of the 2nd D pairing. Last season, smart teams pressured Hainsey and made him dish over to his partner Exelby who frequently just dumped the puck to center ice. The Thrashers are very likely to establish a new record for points from their defensemen in the coming season.
The Thrasher skaters have been unusually healthy. Star forward Ilya Kovalchuk has proven remarkably durable throughout his NHL career. Even small Thrashers players like Todd White, Rich Peverley and Bryan Little have missed very few games. Zach Bogosian was the only impact skater to miss a signficant amout of time. Are the Thrashers tough or just lucky? Injuries are not completely random events, some players simply have stonger bones and connective tissues which allow them to handle repeated stresses. If the Thrashers continue their healthy ways that will significantly aid their pursuit of the playoffs.
Team Weaknesses
How much better is the defense? Two summers ago the team added Ron Hainsey and cut Alexei Zhitnik and the Thrashers improved from 30th to 29th in the standings. If the addition of Pavel Kubina doesn't have a larger effect than that, the Thrashers season will end bitterly once again. Even if the offense ranks as high as 5th in the NHL, the defense must make major improvements. The biggest defensive problem is the Penalty Kill. Last year the Thrashers allowed 280 goals, nearly 1/3 of those came while short a man. Atlanta's PK was dead last for most of the year, and yet none of the roster additions were top tier PK players on their previous teams--a big source for concern.
What will they get out of Kari Lehtonen? When healthy Lehtonen is above average with moments of brilliance. He receives less help from his defense than many other NHL goaltenders. Backup Johan Hedberg is a great person according to all, but by any statistical measure (even shot quality adjusted SV%) he is far below average in net. The Thrashers really can't afford Lehtonen to miss a full month's worth of games yet again and they can't afford to have Hedberg start 20+ games. You have to wonder when the organization's patience with Lehtonen will be exhausted, the invitation of 6 goalies to NHL Training Camp may suggest that he is running out of time in Atlanta.
Can they play in the other team's end? Last season the Thrashers were one of the smallest teams in the NHL and they really struggled in terms of keeping continuous pressure in the offensive zone. When you look at measures of puck position such as team Corsi numbers and End-of-Shift Faceoffs, it is amazing to think this club finished 9th in goals scored. The Thrashers scored despite their lack of offensive zone puck possession at even strength. In particular, the Thrashers desperately need Kovalchuk's line to spend more time in the offensive zone. Will the addition of huge forward Nik Antropov lead to more sustained shifts in the good end of the ice?
2009 Atlanta Thrashers Organization Depth Chart
| Left Wing | Center | Right Wing | |
| Ilya Kovalchuk | Nik Antropov | Bryan Little | 1st line |
| Slava Kozlov | Todd White | Rich Peverley | 2nd line |
| Evander Kane | Marty Reasoner | Colby Armstrong | 3rd line |
| Eric Boulton | Jim Slater | Chris Thorburn | 4th line |
| Joey Crabb | Jason Krog | Anthony Stewart | depth |
| Tobias Enstrom | Zach Bogosian | 1st pairing | |
| Ron Hainsey | Pavel Kubina | 2nd pairing | |
| Boris Valabik | Anssi Salmela | 3rd paring | |
| Nathan Oystrick | Mark Popovic | depth |
2009-2010 Predictions
Falconer: Jumping from 13th in the East to 8th (last playoff spot) is an enormous task. Can the addition of Antropov, Kubina and Evander Kane make up that gap? Can Zach Bogosian sustain the high level he showed in February and March? Can Coach Anderson motivate his troops to run through walls? The margin for error is small, but the answer is yes. Leave your mid-April calendar open Thrasher fans, golf season will just have to wait this year.
EvilMilkshake: Towards the end of the season, the Thrashers were on a surge that was sure fun to watch. Thing is, I think part of that had to do with the earlier season games and the overall standings in which the opposition approached the latter games like a cakewalk. Too bad for them. This season, the team will need to show consistency not just for a quarter of the season, but all 82 games. Playoffs? Yep, but it'll take health, defense, consistency, and will. In the order of 1A, 1B, 1C, and 1D.
Aaron: To my eyes, this Thrashers season begins and ends with October. One home game, a five game road trip, and the back at home to face the Washington Capitals (twice!!) and the San Jose Sharks. Oh yea, let's not even think about the Ilya Kovalchuk Three Ring Circus & Big Top. The dancing elephants of the press will do their best to remind our boys it's Kovy's contract year. As long as the D can keep the opposing teams' shot count down, our forwards have proven they can find the back of the net. If these guys can prove to themselves they can win, your 2009-2010 Atlanta Thrashers are playoff-bound.
Tim: Our odds of re-signing Ilya Kovalchuk seem pretty good right now. Kovalchuk, Kovalchuk's agent Jay Grossman, and Don Waddell have all gone on the record to say that a deal should get done. This is not Marion Hossa pt. 2. Therefore, I think the biggest question for the Thrashers this year is whether the guys who had breakout years last year (Bryan Little, Rich Peverley, Zach Bogosian, perhaps even Todd White) can continue to play near or above where they were last year. For his part, Little has come to camp faster and stronger than last year with the goal of scoring *more* than 31 goals. I'm going to put our points for the season somewhere between 84 and 95, probably in the 91 or 92 range.
Sure, that may be optimistic, but do you remember how many games we lost in the 2008 - 2009 season during the last 5 minutes of the game? If we had just gone into overtime, we would have come out with ~1.5 points/game rather than 0. There were *many* of those games. If you assume there were 10 games like that (and I think there were more), the extra 15 points would have put the Thrashers at 91 for the season... a playoff bubble team.
So, Thrashers fans, that's where I think we'll be this season. Not a wholly different team, but much less apt to fall apart in the last 5-8 minutes of the game. We're going to be a much more confident team this year.
Another thing to watch: if we do indeed look bound for the playoffs, expect ownership to be willing to spend cash to acquire players at the deadline.
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What do you think our PK lines will be, and how do you think they’ll compare to last year?
by ThrashersRecaps on Sep 15, 2009 8:11 AM EDT reply actions
I have some thoughts on the PK, but they were too long to fit into the preview. I’ll have something up soon on this.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Sep 15, 2009 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I love your optimism but I can’t fully embrace it. I think this team might look a lot like that team that just barely missed the playoffs after the lockout. A real late season heartbreaker that we will probably pin on an unanticipated injury to someone. But that post-lockout team was fun to watch and I think that means games this season will be exciting.
The Thrashers will live or die on how many shots are allowed.
It’s all about limiting Shots Against.
I don’t agree with you 100%. If you look at the worst teams in the league last year for SA/G, this seems to be true:
30. Florida
29. New York Islanders
28. Tampa Bay
27. Atlanta
26. Edmonton
But the next two are Philadelphia and Montreal. And the top-end:
1. San Jose
2. Detroit (…okay, good so far…)
3. Columbus
4. LA Kings
5. Dallas
It starts to veer outside expected territory. Now, your point was that the Thrashers will live or die based on SA/G, but I think that they could be alright even with high SA. The key is the quality of these shots. Lehtonen has routinely turned aside 40 shots in a game, but if we give up 25 shots in the slot, we’re cooked.
If you’re curious and you want to know which statistic most accurately forecasts team performance, see the even-strength goals for/against ratio. That’s perhaps the single most accurate predictor out there (at least based on research I’ve done.)
Right, but it’s a given we’re going to score a lot. If we score a lot (given) and limit our SA, we should do well. I think that’s the assumption.
by fatschoonerrat on Sep 15, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Hey, you can break it down to Madden levels if you like: “You’ve got to score more than your opponent if you want to win the game.”
I think my point is this: you can put together a defensive strategy where you give up a lot of shots… but if you limit the quality of those shots, you can still win games. A shot from the point and a shot from 12ft out in the slot are not (or perhaps should not be) statistically equivalent.
I’d rather give up 45 shots per game from the point than 20 from the doorstep.
Is less SA/G typically good? If course! But ONLY if the quality of shots remains similar (or goes down).
I think the best way to solve all of the above is with better forechecking. Antropov is certainly a step in the right direction. Swapping Exelby for Kubina helps zone-shift immensely. These are more focused goals than “limit shots allowed.”
by timmyf on Sep 15, 2009 12:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Limiting shots against
Backup Johan Hedberg is a great person according to all, but by any statistical measure (even shot quality adjusted SV%) he is far below average in net.
There are a couple of statistical measures where Hedberg has been consistently superior to Lehtonen in the three years they have been a duo. One of them is mentioned in several of the comments above, namely shot prevention:
SA/60 …. Lehtonen .. Hedberg
-————————————————
2006-07 ….. 31.6 ……. 28.4
2007-08 ….. 34.6 ……. 31.9
2008-09 ….. 34.3 ……. 30.6
That’s a persistent differential of ~10% more shots against Lehtonen than Hedberg. It’s suggestive that Lehtonen’s playing style invites additional shots while Hedberg’s might prevent shots. Am interested to hear from poeple who watch both play often, if you have noticed any observable differences between the two on the shot prevention front. (e.g. Hedberg = much better puckhandler? better rebound control?)
Of course Lehtonen has the far better Sv%, but since both play behind the same “defence” the differences between the two is perhaps better measured in GAA? Which still shows Lehtonen with the edge, but a less overwhelming one.
The other persistent difference is surprising by any measure:
Pts% …. Lehtonen .. Hedberg
-———————————————
2006-07 …. .575 …… .667
2007-08 …. .443 …… .484
2008-09 …. .466 …… .518
When it comes to the ultimate objective of winning the game, Hedberg’s stats are persistently better than Lehtonen’s, again by ~10%. Any explanation, Thrashers’ fans?
Writer for The Copper & Blue
Is Hedberg preventing shots or starting against weaker opponents? If I had time, I’d do an Expected Shots versus Actual Shots comparison based on opposition team faced. The Win % is easy, the Thrashers simply score more when Hedberg is in net—is that because of his better outlet passing? Or is it a team attitude thing of simply a case of Hedberg getting the easier starts and therefore the Thrashers offense has an easier time scoring? My gut instinct is that quality of opponent explains some percentage of the observed differences.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Sep 15, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. The other thing I’d look into if I had time: what are their win percentages when you exclude the second games of back-to-backs. The Thrashers nearly always lose those, so it’d be interesting to see if that changes the numbers.
by timmyf on Sep 15, 2009 5:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The Falconer: I’ve looked at Hedberg’s game logs to look for competition bias and just don’t see it. A lot of his starts occur during stretches of games when Lehtonen is hurt yet again, and surely the schedule during those stretches would be random. TimmyF brings up another interesting possibility which could be tested during the times that both Lehtonen and Hedberg have been healthy.
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 15, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Point to Bruce
OK I ran the numbers on Expected Shots and it supports your position. There was no pronounced bias in expected shots based on the opponents faced in 2008-09. (I made adjustments for split games)
30.77 Kari Lehtonen’s Expected Shots Against per Game (Expected = average Shots For per game per opponent)
30.78 Johan Hedberg’s Epected Shots Against per Game
My memory says Kari gets tougher starts, but in 08-09 the data don’t support that. I still hold the possibility that 08-09 was unusual, after Kari came back in the spring he started almost every game regardless of the opponent. I don’t have electronic game logs handy to test that for the 07-08 season.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
I think there is often an element of skaters playing a little harder when Moose is in net. He is a very popular player and twice (I think) won the team award for hardest worker. Surely the guys on the team want to help him be rewarded for that. I think Falconer’s ponder on the quality outlet passes is also a possibility. It would be interesting to look at the zone shift numbers when Moose is in net and see if we don’t end up with fewer faceoffs in the defensive end as a result of his ability to help move the puck out of the defensive zone.
I looked at a comparison between Hedberg and Lehtonen right after 2007-08 season. At the time, a couple of things really stood out. First, in games that Hedberg lost that year, he allowed 4.66 (!) goals per game. When he lost, he really lost. What’s more, in the games he won, he still allowed 2.83 goals per game. Consider that the Thrashers average goals for was 2.54 per game, and you see that even in Hedberg wins, the team had to outperform their normal play.
Lehtonen, on the other hand, allowed 4.03 ga in losses, but only 1.57 in wins. He clearly won games with his netminding, holding teams to almost 2 fewer goals than the average (3.54 ga).
As for shots, there isn’t a tremendous amount of difference between the two. In wins, Hedberg faced 32.28 shots vs. Lehtonen’s 32.85. In losses, Hedberg faced 33.06, while Lehtonen faced 35.44. So, without looking at expected shots (which I unfortunately don’t have on that sheet), one could argue that Lehtonen suffered some rebound control problems in his losses (yet, he still allowed fewer goals against despite the increased shots).
If nothing else, this sinlge season data (as uncontrolled as it is) seems to support jen’s notion of player performance in front of the goalies. When Hedberg is in the net, the team scores more goals, sometimes enough to compensate for the additional goals he allows. And boy does he allow goals…
As for shots, there isn’t a tremendous amount of difference between the two. In wins, Hedberg faced 32.28 shots vs. Lehtonen’s 32.85. In losses, Hedberg faced 33.06, while Lehtonen faced 35.44.
Something wrong with somebody’s numbers … I have Hedberg allowing 31.9 shots per 60 in ‘07-08, and yours show him facing more than that in both wins and losses. Certainly I would argue that 2.7 shots per 60 is a tremendous difference, and that’s the closest the two have been in their three years as a tandem.
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 16, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Hedberg needs to keep buying the beer on the road!
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Sep 16, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Shots Discrepancy
I’d guess that since you’re using shots per 60 minutes, you have some additional time considered. I was looking at whole games only, trying to find a difference in performance for wins and losses. So there are instances where relief time, for example, isn’t considered in my data.
Looking at shots allowed in isolation, tells us nothing more than one goalie faced more shots than another. It’s as useful an indicator of actualy performance as is, for example, save pct. It tells us something, but not everything.
Does Lehtonen face more shots because he allows fewer goals? Do players fall back to the crease more when Hedberg is in the net, and are therefore able to clear more rebounds? Is Hedberg a better stick handler, and therefore better able to clear the zone (I’d reeeaaallly dispute this)?
You could get to the bottom of this, but it would take more time than I have to compile the data.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
Thrashers Schedule
Next 5 Games
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Washington
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Fri 10/08 | 7:30 PM EDT |
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@
Tampa Bay
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Sat 10/09 | 7:30 PM EDT |
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@
Los Angeles
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Tue 10/12 | 10:30 PM EDT |
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@
Anaheim
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Fri 10/15 | 10:00 PM EDT |
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@
San Jose
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Sat 10/16 | 10:30 PM EDT |
Last 5 Games
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Pittsburgh
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Sat 04/10 | W 1 - 0 |
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@
Washington
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Fri 04/09 | L 2 - 5 |
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New Jersey
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Tue 04/06 | L 0 - 3 |
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@
Pittsburgh
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Sat 04/03 | OT - L 3 - 4 |
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@
Washington
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Thu 04/01 | L 1 - 2 |
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