Thrashers Re-sign Jim Slater
by The Falconer on Jul 9, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
11 comments
Meh.
I suppose I was crazy to think that a team that finished 27th out of 30 would try to purge all their below-replacement-level guys off the roster in one summer. With Exelby gone, and Johan Hedberg perhaps headed out the door, Slater and Thorburn were next up on my "gee can't we do better than this" chopping block. Opps. Two steps forward, one step back I suppose.
What more can I say? As I explained here, the Thrashers allowed an astonishing 88 Goals on the Penalty Kill last year. More than any other factor, the PK pushed them way down the standings. Kubina and Antropov should help some but neither have been PK warriors with their recent clubs. And yet the Thrashers re-sign who was among the worst guys on our PK for two years in a row. Slater is either extremely unlucky when he's PKing or he's not very good at it compared to his teammates. The Thrashers desperately need improvement on the PK and I think they missed a chance to get better by bringing back both Thorburn and Slater and not taking a hard look at a PK specialist like Veillieux or Hinote.
Having made that enormous disclaimer, Slater works hard, has + speed in the straightaway and makes tight turns like like a stretch Hummer. He also looks good in green and white from what I hear. I'm not sure he's what the Thrashers needed--but he is what they've got.
Here are his TOI rankings and Scoring Efficiency numbers in his NHL career. Warning: ugly numbers are just ahead! I find it interesting that each successive year the coaching staff has reduced Slater's Even Strength ice time compared to other NHL forwards. Perhaps the coaching staff is on to something here?
Jim Slater ES TOI Percentile Ranking (100% = most in the NHL per game)
2006 24%
2007 19%
2008 16%
2009 10%
Two season ago Slater started off as a regular on the PK. But after Larsen and Slater got destroyed while short handed both were booted off. Last season he stayed on the PK unit all season. Ugliness prevailed when he was out there.
| 2008 SH Rank | 2008 Player | 2008 SH TOI per Game | 2008 SH GAA | x | 2009 SH Rank | 2009 Player | 2009 SH TOI per Game | 2009 SH GAA | |
| 1 | Hossa | 2.59 | 5.09 | 1 | T. White | 0.69 | 5.27 | ||
| 2 | T. White | 2.46 | 6.27 | 2 | Bogosian | 1.39 | 5.50 | ||
| 3 | Enstrom | 3.00 | 6.6 | 3 | Schneider | 1.01 | 6.20 | ||
| 4 | Exelby | 2.68 | 6.81 | 4 | Valabik | 2.03 | 6.51 | ||
| 5 | Havelid | 3.48 | 7.03 | 5 | Hainsey | 2.74 | 7.03 | ||
| 6 | Perrin | 2.70 | 7.13 | 6 | Oystrick | 0.88 | 7.73 | ||
| 7 | Klee | 2.53 | 7.25 | 7 | Peverley | 1.37 | 7.95 | ||
| 8 | Dupuis | 2.59 | 7.44 | 8 | C. Stuart | 2.71 | 8.04 | ||
| 9 | Holik | 1.25 | 7.63 | 9 | Reasoner | 3.44 | 8.39 | ||
| 10 | McCarthy | 0.82 | 8.03 | 10 | Perrin | 3.27 | 8.46 | ||
| 11 | Slater | 1.20 | 10.83 | 11 | Slater | 2.60 | 8.84 | ||
| 12 | Zhitnik | 1.17 | 11.00 | 12 | Enstrom | 3.27 | 9.19 | ||
| 13 | Kwiatkowski | 0.51 | 13.09 | 13 | Havelid | 3.10 | 10.60 | ||
| 14 | Larsen | 0.42 | 20.64 | 14 | Armstrong | 0.83 | 11.41 | ||
| 15 | Exelby | 2.22 | 11.93 |
Two seasons ago Slater's PK Goals Against was about 4 goals worse than the typical Thrasher PKer. Last season it was just 1 goal worse than average. His personal PKGA improved but it was still below average on a woeful PK unit.
As I said at the beginning "meh."
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I see that
you posted this at 5AM. Are Jim Sathers PK stats keeping you up at night?
When I study those numbers a bit more closer, it’s apparent that in 2008 the big mistake was pairing him with Brian Lawton on the PK.
I have to blame the coaches for that, Larson should not have been out there.
His numbers really hurt Slater’s.
Shedding that ablatross alone improved Sater’s SHGAA by 2 goals.
What would happen if you put TWO good penalty killers out at once?
“It would cut Slater’s ice-time.”
Stuff a sock in it!
I can only imagine what pairing him with a 2nd decent PKer would do.
If I had a say, looking at your statisticles analysis, I’d suggest pairing him with Colon Stuart!
re: 2 am
We have this cool feature that allows the author to set the publication time—I was asleep in my bed at 5 a.m.
I finished this yesterday afternoon, but wanted it to go up in the early a.m. for the early morning readers.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
Brian Lawton didn’t even break into the NHL with the Avs until ‘99 or ’00!!
In 1993 he was still in the WHL probably.
The only reason he didn’t play for the Ducks last season was his botched hernia operation.
Don’t worry Falconer. I’m not going to post after this.
There has only been ONE player named Brian Lawton in NHL history. And he NEVER played for the Ducks. You mean “Brad Larsen”. Sigh.
Viaduct?
Vi not a chicken?
Don’t worry Falconser I am not going to post after this.
Brad Larsen never played for the Ducks.
sigh
I’m certainly not convinced Slater is below replacement level. I think it’s more accurate to call him barely above replacement level.
Teams can make mistakes if the indiscriminantly purge the bottom of their roster because they are bad. There may be a diamond in the rough there. I am not saying Slater is one, but I don’t have any good ideas on where Atlanta is likely to find an equivalent penalty killer. My best idea might be go sign Mike Peca. It will cost you more money to get somebody who is older and once was better but it’s no longer clear that he still is.
I will concede that determining the precise cutoff line for “replacement level” players is a point of disagreement among the quantitative hockey types. You are correct that the Thrashers could actually do worse than having Jim Slater on the 4th line and I’m contending they could do better.
As for who they should target I laid out some stats in this post on the best checking line players available in free agency:
http://www.birdwatchersanonymous.com/2009/7/4/937696/2009-nhl-free-agents-are-any
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jul 9, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Exelby was ranked our #4 PKer in 2008?! :o
by ThrashersRecaps on Jul 9, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions
:(
Jim Slater was the most obviously worthless piece of our lineup last season. When pluggers like Stuart and Crabb are better than him fresh from call-ups you know there is a big problem. Very sad to hear this organization is still wasting its time on Slater, who can’t score, can’t PK, can’t fight, is mediocre in the faceoff circle, and can’t stay upright on his skates long enough to make his speed useful. Like I said earlier, drafted in the 1st round and great in NHL 08/09 is really all he’s got going for him. Out of the trio of Boulton, Thor, and Slater he really brings the least to the team.
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