2009 NHL Free Agents: Are Any Effective PK Specialists Left?
The Thrashers PK unit was 2nd worst in the NHL last season allowing 88 Power Play Goals Against! The recent re-signing of Chris Thorburn did not address this pressing problem since he never plays on the PK. As the Free Agent Frenzy continues further along and the top prizes are signed teams will turn to bargain hunting.
If the Thrashers were to look for a Forward who could play on a checking line, which of the forwards left has a track record of helping his team on the PK? To answer that question I looked at all the UFA who played at least 120 minutes short handed in 2009 (I included Mike Zigomanis since he was hurt much of the year, but played a lot of minutes when healthy).
Next I pulled out each players individual Short Handed Goals Against Average. This gives is a very basic measure of which players were out on the ice when their team experienced success on the PK. This isn't a perfect measure since it doesn't adjust for goalie quality, but it can give us a rough idea.
One more draw back to SH GAA is that a couple of "bad" or "unlucky" goals can move the number because of the small number of minutes played. For example, PLAYER X was on the ice for 200 SH minutes and he was on the ice for 20 PKGA for a SH GAA of 6.00. Let's say he had some unusually bad puck luck one season and 3 extra goals found the back of the net giving him 23 PKGA/200 SH TOI which would push his SH GAA by nearly one goal to 6.90. So depending on how much you think luck plays a role the numbers below are either useful or pretty meaningless. Because of the sample size problem I favor looking at two season's worth of data. Why? Because the random luck aspect should decrease as your data sample grows larger.
OK, so how are the most effective PK Free Agents left? Stephane Veillieux and Dan Hinote were the only two guys to post strong SH GAA in back to back seasons. Guys to avoid Dominic Moore, Andy Hilbert and Eric Perrin--these guys were terrible unlucky, have really sucky teammates or they simply are not all that effective. None of these guys is all that famous, but if the Thrashers should add Veillieux or Hinote in the coming weeks you should get excited. Marchant has posted back to back better than average numbers but he has a "reputation" that will likely cause him to be more expensive than Veillieux or Hinote.
| Player | 2009 Team | 2009 SH TOI | 2008 SH GAA | 2009 SH GAA |
| Todd Marchant | ANA | 273 | 5.92 | 5.78 |
| Eric Perrin | ATL | 256 | 7.13 | 8.46 |
| Rob Niedermayer | ANA | 249 | 6.24 | 7.00 |
| Blair Betts | NYR | 241 | 5.98 | 3.51 |
| Manny Malhotra | CBJ | 217 | 6.35 | 6.42 |
| Ville Peltonen | FLA | 197 | 7.58 | 4.38 |
| Travis Moen | SJS | 193 | 5.59 | 7.75 |
| Dominic Moore | BUF | 187 | 6.82 | 10.65 |
| PJ Axelsson | BOS | 187 | 6.61 | 5.36 |
| Michael Peca | CBJ | 184 | 5.18 | 6.92 |
| Andy Hilbert | NYI | 180 | 6.54 | 8.45 |
| Stephane Veilleux | MIN | 170 | 5.10 | 3.87 |
| Stephane Yelle | BOS | 165 | 7.46 | 6.48 |
| Taylor Pyatt | VAN | 158 | 6.07 | 4.64 |
| Mike Grier | SJS | 154 | 5.15 | 6.74 |
| Tom Kostopoulos | MTL | 145 | 6.06 | 5.03 |
| Dan Hinote | STL | 129 | 3.30 | 4.68 |
| Ryan Bayda | CAR | 126 | 6.41 | 5.75 |
| Mike Zigomanis | PIT | 2:51 | 5.70 | 6.15 |
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10 comments
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Comments
PK Helper!!!
I say Blair Betts… he is pretty cheap too!!!!
by Terry J on Jul 4, 2009 9:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Betts has some nice stats.
I have to say that putting together this table was a real eye opener because I had never taken a hard look at this angle before.
by The Falconer on Jul 4, 2009 9:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In your explanation before the table, how does a player get a SH GAA of 6.00 with 200 short handed minutes and 20 PKGA? I can’t get 6.00 from 200 and 20 so I’m confused.
by ThrashersRecaps on Jul 4, 2009 9:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I can answer that:
The SH GAA is the number of SHGA per 60 minutes of SH-time
200 minutes divided by 60 minutes per game = 3.33 full games of SH time
20 PKGA divided by 3.33 games = 6 SH GAA
by Dutch Thrasher on Jul 4, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
20 GA / 200 minutes = 0.1 GA per minute played
then X 60 minutes = 6.00 PK GAA
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jul 4, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Most PK analysis I see here and on other blogs tends to always focus on the personnel, which is understandable. However, I’ve wondered sometimes if it isn’t so much about the personnel as the PK philosophy itself employed by the Thrashers. The team has a habit of being very passive on the PK – they don’t aggressively pressure the players with the puck, don’t seem to block shots as often as some other teams, not enough commitment to sticks in the lanes, and poor methods of clearing the puck out the zone. The last one in particular – I don’t even want to count how many times we gained possession of the puck only to turn it right back over w/o clearing the zone. And I’ve always believed that if I see multiple players on the ice all making the same mistakes, there’s a systemic problem.
Case in point – prior to this past season, Brad McCrimmon was our defense/PK guy. Well he goes to Detroit and suddenly their PK completely falls apart – how exactly does that happen on a team chock-full of renowned two-way forwards?
by WINGZ_25 on Jul 5, 2009 9:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alex Kovalev
In Montreal there is a strong rumor that Waddell is very interested in Kovy to help your PP and maybe play with the other two Russians (Kovalchuk-Antropov). Any truth to the rumor. Bryan.
by nightmare_49 on Jul 5, 2009 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m skeptical because I think the Thrashers have spent their budget. They have to stay under the mid point or they start to lose some revenue sharing money. Also Kovalev can be pretty erratic and frustrating—and Waddell tends to avoid those type of players.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jul 5, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I appreciate your quick response and you make sense Mreci Bryan.
by nightmare_49 on Jul 5, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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