Kari Lehtonen Re-signs, 1 Year $3 Million
by The Falconer on Jul 15, 2009 6:47 PM EDT
14 comments
I was at the rink today for Prospect Camp and saw Lehtonen walk in. Now I know why he was there. Yet another one year deal for yet again $3 million. I had estimated he would sign for three years with an average cap hit of $4 million. Colby Armstrong is the only expensive player left to re-sign. I have him down for $2.2 million, which would put the Thrashers at roughly $46 million before any bonus money and including the Zhitnik buyout cap hit. The Thrashers three headed goalie situation has yet to sort itself out.
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What does this mean?
I wouldn’t say the Thrashers have cap issues. I’m hearing from, my huge Thrashers fan, friend the Thrashers are looking to trade either Lehtonen or Hedberg. (And from the “three headed goalie situation” comment, I think I’m right) So if a longer term deal wasn’t agreed upon, or offered for that matter (I don’t know), does this signify Lehtonen being traded? I mean, if the Thrashers haven’t committed to a good term with anyone, and they haven’t with Lehtonen because of this deal, does this mean the Thrashers don’t want Lehtonen as their man?
"Jaromir Jagr.... it's a POWERPLAY GOAL!"
I’m guessing that Lehtonen’s agent says “we want $4 per year” and GM Don Waddell said “not until he has 50-60 starts in a single season—prove that he can be healthy and we’ll talk long term.” The Thrashers don’t have to sign him long term and at this point Lehtonen hasn’t proven that he is a) an elite goaltender or b) can be counted on to play 2/3rds of the starts.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jul 16, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I see this merely a way to evaluate how his season rolls along. If he has a good and injury free season, then they may go for a long term deal next season. When you are trying to make the playoffs, it doesnt really make much sense to trade away you best goalie or his experienced back -up. also Pavelec hasnt proven anything at NHL level yet. Look at Cory Schnieder of Vancouver. That guy has literally dominated AHL for 2 season in a row, yet he will have to battle hard for back-up position. If Pavelec is any smarter, he should know that he needs to be fully ready to play in the NHL. And dominatin A will only help him get better. No point coming in the NHL and get bullied by opposing high scoring teams
Good points
Falconer, I think that Lehtonen is a pretty good goaltender though not at that elite level yet. This past year was his only year with a GAA above 3 (just above three actually), and the only year he played a good sum of the games, 06-07, he did win 34 games. And SumOil, I think you’re right about it being more of an evaluation thing than anything.
sorry “reply” hasn’t been working for me on sbnation right now.
"Jaromir Jagr.... it's a POWERPLAY GOAL!"
When you are trying to rank Goalies, dont read too much into GAA. GAA is more of a team statistic than a goalie one. It is largely a measure of the defensive play of the team. IMO Save% is a better tool to gauge a goalie’s true ability. If you take that into perspective, KL had a decent 0.911 SV on a real bad team. Compare that with Hedberg 0.886 and Pavelec 0.880, it shows how much better he was from his competition.
Comparing with other goalies in the NHL who played 46 games or more, KL ranks 15th. Roloson was the only goalie from non playoff team who had a better SV. Also note goalies like Tim Thomas and Niklas Backstrom have hugely inflated SV% as he saw a lot of perimeter shots(which are easier to save) . I am sure KL had to deal with many more deflections, shots from the slot, one-timers.
Also Thrashers PK was terrible. A better PK would have again resulted in a better SV for him.
Considering all the above factors, KL is an above average goalie. With better Defense and relatively healthy season, Atl should be able to see his true potential. IMHO he should be able to justify his 2nd overall selection. IMHO theres isnt really much of a difference between KL and MAFleury
If you believe in Shot Quality Adjusted SV% Lehtonen was knocking on the top 10 last season. His GAA could really improve if the team cuts down on the shots and the high quality shots allowed.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jul 16, 2009 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Lehtonen points
I agree that this contract is conditional; if Lehtonen is injury free or plays more of the season to keep The THrashers in playoff contention, then I think that he will be signed for a long term contract.
Falconer,
Last year you pointed out that Lehtonen needed to improve rebound control, which I think he did. You are right about defense; if defense doesn’t allow as many shots or keeps opposition further away, Lehtonen has a better chance of defending goals.
I think DW was really considering the trade because during the draft, DW was asked if he was going to trade a goalie, and Waddell said he wouldn’t do the trade unless it was a good deal for the Thrashers. If he had no plans to trade a goalie, he would have said, “I have no plan to trade Lehtonen.”
I think this season is make or break for Lehtonen, Kovalchuk, and others; if season goes well and Thrashers make playoffs and improve from series with Rangers, they will stay. If not, I think they will leave like Hossa did.
by BTF on Jul 16, 2009 7:30 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think the organization has to realize that Pav isn’t proven enough to be “the guy” if we want to contend and that we need Kari. It might not be popular, but I still think they have to find a way to make Hedberg the “odd man out” in the goalie situation.
Something Ive always thought they should do, and I think Falconer has also said this a few times, is to let Moose finish out a contract and then hire him as a goalie coach. I know we got Stevie Weekes but he seems to pull other duties a lot and it cant hurt to have another guy as a coach. Besides, I think Moose would make a great coach, and Id rather see him stick around with the Thrashers organization if theres a way.
by muttonsourdough on Jul 16, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
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