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Eric O'Dell Analysis

Atlanta acquired Eric O'Dell who was drafted by Anaheim very high in the 2nd round last year with the #39th overall pick. Presumably this was someone the Thrashers scouted and liked last year. I have to admit I'm pretty excited about this trade and I'll tell you why.

Age and Scoring

Let me begin with the disclaimer that I've never seen this guy skate in person, but his statistical profile is rather impressive. Here's the key thing. Many 20 year old forwards can manage a point-per-game by the time they read age 19 or 20 in the OHL and most of those guys become career minor league players. Forwards on the path to playing in the NHL hit the point-per-game pace at a younger age. Those who reach that level at age 17 or 18 are MUCH MORE LIKELY to become NHL players.

Eric O'Dell doesn't turn 19 until this summer. He managed to exceed the point-per-game threshold both at age 18 and age 17. That's very good company folks. Now I don't want to get too carried away based on just 1.5 seasons worth of OHL playing time, but his statistical profile is that of a NHL player.

Season Age Games Points PPG
2007-08 17 26 32 1.23
2008-09 18 59 59 1.00

Team Context

Another plus factor is that when I look at the Sudbury Wolves roster it doesn't look like he is being carried along by stronger teammates. For example, Thrashers prospect Paul Postma is putting up some unreal numbers with his WHL team this year (56-8-4). It is hard to tell if Postma is driving that bus or just riding on it. (I hope he's driving it, but there are many talented guys on that roster.) But  you have to keep in mind that his team is just rampaging through that league this year running up some big scores. The Sudbury Wolves are not loaded with big names or NHL draft picks, Jared Staal is the biggest forward name on that team and he was selected 10 slots BEHIND Eric O'Dell last year.

Plus/Minus

Here's another statistical thing that popped out at me. In his first season in the OHL most of O'Dell's teammates had brutal plus/minus numbers in the -20 to -30 range. But the OHL Official website has him as a +10 that year. The Wolves were terrible that year finishing 17-46-5. In his second season O'Dell is a -6 on a team where many other players are double digit minus numbers. (Sudbury is 25-31-6 this year) As a statistic plus/minus has some big flaws--but it is a useful means of comparing guys on the team--and it rates him as better than many of teammates.

Future

Assuming O'Dell continues to develop when might we see him in Atlanta? Well elite 1st round OHL players often jump straight from the OHL to the NHL (Bryan Little for example) at around age 20. O'Dell fell just short of being a late 1st round pick. The Thrashers certainly have a need for additional scoring line players and O'Dell and Angelo Esposito will have their opportunity to show their talents next September, but it's probably unrealistic to expect him to make the NHL until he is in the 20-22 age range.

Conclusion

Thrashers did pretty well to exchange a guy who was not contributing in a significant way for a prospect with a legitimate shot a scoring line player.

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Looking at the previews of last year’s draft, Bob McKenzie compared O’Dell to Tim Connolly. I don’t think that means he might be injury-prone or a “dink” (Mike Milbury’s term for Connolly). The common criticism of O’Dell was a lack of speed and the need to put on weight. Everyone praised his competiveness which if anything would be a change from Christensen.

by Big Picture Guy on Mar 4, 2009 7:49 PM EST reply actions  

Every scouting report I’ve read says that he’s not much of a skater, but that is something that he can improve upon.

by SilverRubicon on Mar 4, 2009 8:14 PM EST reply actions  

Great Move

I give the trade an A. Rated #6 on HF in the Ducks org (#2 for forwards). I think this was a great pickup. I was predicting a 4th for EC or maybe part of a package. The fact that we got a great prospect is a huge bonus. Maybe plays for the Wolves next year?

Overall I give the day a C. Not sure why there was no other moves made. Oh well… I guess the next big day will be the lottery. When do we hear what the draft order is?

by Whalers on Mar 4, 2009 8:16 PM EST reply actions  

It doesn’t sound like he is old enough to jump to the Wolves next year. My guess would be another year in the OHL and then perhaps a jump to the big club.

by godsendjen on Mar 4, 2009 11:09 PM EST up reply actions  

When do we hear what the draft order is?

All the eliminated teams will pretty much be in order of 1-14 at the end of the season. As the playoffs progress, we will find out who picks where out of the last 16.

by dj4aces on Mar 5, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Won’t we be dumped in a lottery with NYI and TB (as it stands now)? When do we find out the results of that?

by Whalers on Mar 5, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

There is a weighted lottery to determine who gets the top pick. Odds are you pick where you finish, but anyone in the bottom (3 or 5?) has a shot at getting the top pick. I think the lottery usually happens in the later part of the playoffs.

by godsendjen on Mar 5, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Dude, you're getting an O'Dell

Anything for EC is a good return. However, since Y2K, most 30 something picks never make it out of the AHL or ECHL (with exception of Tyutin, Stoll, Eriksson and Jackman.

by Gumpucks on Mar 4, 2009 8:36 PM EST reply actions  

This is true, but....

The reason they stay in the ECHL, OHL, or AHL is because they play like EC. I’m all for picking up a top 3 rated offensive prospect from any given team for a healthy scratch.

by Whalers on Mar 5, 2009 8:54 AM EST reply actions  

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