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Thrashers Trade Deadline: Defense and Goal

while most NHL teams can still fantasize about the playoffs, the Atlanta Thrashers have been out of the running for some time. About the only benefit of being out of the hunt is that the Thrashers are one of the few sellers in a league filled with mostly buyers. Which Thrashers are most likely to be traded on defense and in goal?

Even with the Montreal Canadians snapping up Mathieu Schneider early, the Thrashers have a log jam at defense. Each night someone is a healthy scratch and Grant Lewis and Arturs Kulda are both due for a NHL call up before the season is finished in my opinion. I'll run through the Thrashers depth chart at defense.

The Untouchables


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Zach Bogosian 26 3 5 8 4 19 0 0 0 0 37 8.1


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Tobias Enstrom 61 2 12 14 1 40 0 1 1 0 61 3.3

First we have the untouchables: Bogosian and Enstrom. These two players are so highly valued I can't imagine anyone making an offer that would pry them away from Atlanta.

 

Players Unlikely To Be Dealt

The Thrashers invested a high 1st round pick in Boris Valabik five years ago. He has finally reached the NHL. Given how much time and energy they have invested in his development I think the Thrashers are unlikely to move this giant physical defensemen.


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Boris Valabik 35 0 5 5 -3 91 0 0 0 0 14 0.0

Ron Hainsey signed a multi-year deal in Atlanta after Brian Campbell took less money to go to the Blackhawks. There was some speculation out there that Hainsey might be dealt but he has been a solid player for the team and is in the middle of his peak performance years.


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Ron Hainsey 61 5 25 30 -14 22 3 0 0 0 117 4.3

Garnet Exelby has a reputation as a big hitter but takes himself out of position and can't pass at the NHL level. Personally, I'm tired of watching him just dump the puck to center ice and if I were GM I would see what his shiny reputation would bring in a trade. However, he is one of the few vocal Thrashers in the locker room and I think that alone will make management think twice before trading him.

 

Players Who Could be Moved


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Niclas Havelid 61 2 12 14 2 42 0 1 0 0 39 5.1


Nic Havelid is the Thrasher defensemen most likely to be moved. He is an Unrestricted Free Agent at the end of this season. He is also 35 and Father Time spares no one. Three years ago Havelid choose to avoid free agency and re-signed with the Thrashers he probably left some money on the table when he made that choice. My assumption is that he and his family like Atlanta. He has great chemistry with fellow Swede Tobias Enstrom and I would not be the least bit surprised if he is dealt to a contender at the deadline only to re-sign with Atlanta over the summer.

He brings toughness and grit and great positional defense most of the time. He's precisely what many Cup contenders could use--a reliable defenseman who comes to play every night. Another plus factor is that Havelid has been matched up against the NHL's best offensive forwards over the last three season and he has learned to defend elite players without taking very many penalties.


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Nathan Oystrick 39 3 6 9 -10 22 0 0 0 0 32 9.4

Oystrick is a 25 NHL rookie. He has above average offensive skills and below average defensive skills. The Thrashers were hoping to see him push a veteran for a NHL job the last several training camps but he came to NHL camp in unacceptable shape. Finally, this year he came better prepared and he made the team. He is a 6th/7th guy who can be used on the power play in a pinch. I'm not sure how many NHL teams would want a NHL rookie with questionable defending skills, but the Thrashers might not require much to part with him. They recently acquired AHL depth defensemen Clay Wilson and Brett Skinner who bring much the same skill set to the table. Next year Oystrick might struggle to keep his job should the Thrashes draft Victor Hedman and sign a NHL veteran to help out the defense.

Goaltenders

Goal is another place where the Thrashers have more depth than in years past. Ondrej Pavelec won a AHL Championship in the spring of 2008 and appeared ready to make the jump to the NHL. He later held out for a brief time when he was sent down to the AHL in the fall of 2009. At some point the Thrashers will have to choose between Lehtonen, Pavelec and Hedberg. Lehtonen is a RFA next summer and will be looking for more than a one year contract and he will be looking for more money. Hedberg and Pavelec are both signed for one year year at a bit more than $1 million.


GP MIN W L T EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2008 - Kari Lehtonen 34 1943 12 18 3 4 102 3.15 1108 1006 .908 1

Lehtonen is big and has great technique. If he faced fewer high quality shots each night he might probably be discussed as a potential All-Star Goalie. His Achilles heel has been staying in the line up. He has been unavailable for large parts of the season three of the last four years. He's a quality NHL goalie right who is about to become more expensive.

I wouldn't be complete shocked to see him traded, but I think such a move is more likely to happen over the summer. On the other hand, if a team like Detroit wants to get someone who could replace Chris Osgood the Wings have the prospects required to leverage Lehtonen. Another club rumored to be interested is Philadelpia where both of their goalies will be UFA this summer.

GP MIN W L T EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2008 - Johan Hedberg 24 1181 7 9 3 2 71 3.61 614 543 .884 0

For a NHL team looking to a veteran goalie insurance policy for the playoffs, Hedberg might be an attractive option. Hedberg is immensely popular with his teammates. A backup most of his career, he knows how to prepare himself to be ready at all times.

Unfortunately his numbers this year have been pretty ugly. The Thrashers have scored a LOT more goals when Hedberg starts which makes his Win-Loss record look much better. That SV% is one of the worst in the NHL. Hedberg has proven especially vulnerable on the PK the last two seasons.

 

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Pavelec

I think Lehtonen’s future depends on how ready he is for the NHL. His numbers haven’t been all that great here but his AHL numbers are solid.

Since the rebuilding seems to be in full swing, I’m not convinced that owernship (whoever it may be) will spend on free agents to try and get the team into the playoffs next year. That being the case, I don’t think they can afford to let Lehtonen go until some of these younger players are rmore capable and then would be the time to see what Pavelec’s got as a starter. Putting him out there next season would do nothing for his development so unless he’s ready, keep Lehtonen unless it’s an unrefusable deal.

by antbogey on Feb 26, 2009 11:33 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

When do we get to see the all important “what we can get for each guy” part of the analysis?

by godsendjen on Feb 26, 2009 2:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I’m not very good at that part. :)

Big Picture Guy did some interesting forecasting at this blog:
http://urhma.blogspot.com/

by The Falconer on Feb 26, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the link and the mention. I should point out that my projections only deal with rental players. I’m beginning to think (based on the Ducks-Pens trade today) that we may see more movement of significant non-UFAs, partly because the rental market is so thin (as you pointed out in the reply to my Fanpost). I don’t know how that impacts the rental market which is mainly where the Thrashers will be active. Do they become an afterthought or do they look more attractive if the contenders get into an “arms race? " I listened to Brian Burke’s presser yesterday: he evaluated the first two rental trades (including Schneider) as favoring the sellers. To me, that’s Burke "talking his own book” -he’s a seller, he wants a “sellers market”. To me both trades were slightly underwhelming compared to the past.

You mentioned Baseball Prospectus (in the Fanpost). Those guys have some wonderful and time tested statistical ways of measuring projected player contribution and therefore evaluating trades. That’s a “Holy Grail” that hockey analysis hasn’t really reached yet. My own research showed that rental players underperformed statistically with their new team but I put that off to getting used to new teammates, sometimes new roles, and the relatively few games (sometimes as little as 16-17) after the trade deadline. Baseball “rentals” don’t have as big an adjustment problem since the trade deadline leaves a third of the season left, enough for sometime like C.C. Sabathia to have a big (no pun intended) impact and compile meaningful numbers.

by Big Picture Guy on Feb 26, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not only to baseball players have more time to adjust they also have the pitcher/hitter matchup which involves less collaboration with teammates than in other sports like hockey and basketball.

As for valuation attempts, I like Alan Ryder’s points allocation system. It seems to roughly fit my impressions of what players are worth after working with it for a while. Tom Awad’s GVT values are perhaps less fine grained than Ryder’s but they allow comparisons across different eras which is very nice.

by The Falconer on Feb 27, 2009 1:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dump Exelby

I agree that Exelby should go.

by mo wanchuk on Feb 26, 2009 4:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Keep Bogosian, Enstrom Only

This is by far the worst defense in the league and simply needs to be overhauled. Who even cares what we get for them as long as they’re gone. I’d take a box of pucks and some sticks and call it even.

It’s time to give Lewis and Kulda a shot, and see what they can do…heck it could not be any worse than the stiffs that troll the blueline now.

As for trading Kari, I don’t think I’m quite there. They still has a .908 save percentage, which puts the guy in the Top 10 in the league. If he had a defense worth spit in front of him, who knows what he’d be. Please keep in mind that Pavelec has not looked all that great in his limited opportunities this year.

by TheJam on Feb 26, 2009 5:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Agree with almost everything in this post except saying Enstrom is a keeper. .He is offensively skilled but brings very little else to the table. His shying away from avoiding any contact at all hurts his game even more. Waddell threw him way too much money after 1 good year. He is set to make 3.75 million next year?! That is not money well spent in my opinion. The guy has 15 points this year and is an average defenseman at best…

by grizzard on Feb 27, 2009 11:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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(updated 3.16.2010 at 12:05 AM EDT)

28 - 29 - 11

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