A Closer Look at Thrashers Shot Deficit
It has become a regular a feature of most Atlanta Thrashers games--the team manages to collect points in the standings on a consistent basis despite being out-shot the majority of the time. This is a puzzling pattern since shots are a rough indicator of offensive pressure. I decided to take a closer look at the Thrashers "shot problem", and went through the box scores of all 33 games on www.NHL.com to parse out Power Play, Short Handed and Even Strength Shot patterns.
As I entered the data, one thing jumped out immediately--the Thrashers simply don't shoot as much as other teams while they are on the power play. I've attended games in about 8-9 NHL arenas, and no matter where you are, fans always yell "shoooot" when their team is on the power play. But the Atlanta Thrashers really are more reluctant to take a shot with the man advantage. In many contests, they will only take 3 Power Play shots per night while the opposition amasses a higher PP shot total.
The average Thrashers PP unit fires 5.0 shots per game while the Thrashers opposition averages 7.0 PP shots per game. But the Thrashers average is inflated because of 3 games where they piled up double digit shot totals on the PP. So, if we look at the median number rather than the mean, the Thrashers PP comes out at just 4 shots per game while the opposition stays at 7. So a portion of the Thrashers shot differential problem is that they are simply more selective in taking PP shots than other teams.
If you look at total shots, the Thrashers fire 28.4 per game and opposition launches 34.7--a deficit of -6.3 per game. Once you pull out the special team shots (both the Thrashers and their opponents average about 1.0 Short Handed Shots per game), the Even Strength shots are 23.4 for Atlanta and 27.7 for the enemy--a deficit of just -4.4. Being out shot is not a great strategy (obviously), but one third of the Thrashers average shot deficit is created by the fact that Atlanta is simply more selective in PP shooting (and yet still effective at scoring PP Goals).
One counter-intuitive trend is that the Thrashers are more likely to win when the fare badly in the shot department. In the chart below you can see that the Thrashers are getting smoked in the area of shots in their games won in regulation 60 minutes. However, in games they are losing they keep the gap smaller. One possible explanation of this is new research shows that a trailing team is significantly more likely to generate shots than a team that has a lead.
| Game Outcome | Shots For Average | Shots Against Average | Shot Differential |
| Regulation Wins | 25.9 | 36.8 | -10.9 |
| Regulation Ties | 31.5 | 36.8 | -5.3 |
| Regulation Losses | 28.9 | 31.0 | -2.1 |
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Comments
As I entered the data, one thing jumped out immediately—the Thrashers simply don’t shoot as much as other teams while they are on the power play. I’ve attended games in about 8-9 NHL arenas, and no matter where you are, fans always yell “shoooot” when their team is on the power play. But the Atlanta Thrashers really are more reluctant to take a shot with the man advantage.
Could it be a Euro-centric style of play?
by Black ice in Alabama on Dec 19, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions
I’ve never seen an NHL game anywhere except Atlanta, so I always wondered if the “shooot” thing was unique to us. Reading this made me flashback to that terrible first season for the Thrashers where they finished 3rd from last in PP pct. and tied for giving up the most shorthanded goals. The PP that year was pretty much “First guy across the blue line shoot at the net” followed by an effortless clear down the ice by the defense. Rinse and repeat. Yet a large number of fans still think that’s a way to run a PP. I’d rather see them pass the puck productively for 30+ seconds for a good look than throw some wild, low percentage shot at the net that gets sent back down the ice. Thursday’s game was a great example of how to effectively run a PP. I’m sure a lot of the fans in the stands were losing their minds over all the passing.
I think the proper mix is probably no more than 3-4 passes before a shot. The Thrashers over-pass at times trying to get the perfect set up for Kovy. In the playoffs teams are going to just stand next to Kovy and eliminate him—so the rest of the guys have to make them pay by working the 4 on 3 down low.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Dec 19, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
I was talking about this on your blog back in October (below). The trailing team typically caries the play in a game and unless they are totally having an off night they will outshoot the winning team in order to catch up.
With this said I’d like to take a deeper look at these numbers. The Thrashers have been terrible in the first period and seemingly falling behind often. Of late you’d think our shot differential would be slimmer simply because we’ve had to dig out of holes
This is what is dangerous about numbers. Stats are very important but you need context. Getting outshot has not been a problem this year (so far) because of the games themselves. You know? That thing that actually generates the stats?
Game 1. We went up 4-0. The team bunkered down and played most of the 2nd half of that game in their own end. You see this in virtually every NHL game. The team that is behind applies the pressure. This pattern was on display here.
Game 2. Thrashers take a 3-1 and play defense again. Shots were 5-5 after one period of play. The Thrashers converted, took a big lead, and sat back in their zone. Eventual shot disparity was -10
Game 3. Went down 2-0 early and ended up with the first period lead in shots. Surprised? Shouldn’t be because we were in comeback mode and tossing everything at the cage. The Thrashers tied the score at 2. Sens went up in the 2nd period again, and again we picked up the shots finishing even after 2 periods. In the 3rd we went down by a second goal and did a little tent folding. We were beaten
Game 4. Awful first period. The official excuse is rust. Goaltending saved our hide. We then proceeded to go up 3-1 and sat back in our shell
Game 5. Won the first period shot game. Went up on the scoreboard 3-1 and were outshot sitting in our shell again.
I couldn’t care less if we were outshot 40-4 every game as long as 4 of ours go in and less than 4 of theirs hit the twine
by 0vermars on Oct 19, 2009 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would agree that being out shot is irrelevant if you keep winning hockey games.
What DOES worry me is that we get out-worked in the first half of most hockey games—that’s a bad habit to develop if you hope to win a playoff series (and I would love to see that happen). You just can’t play half the time and expect to beat quality teams on a regular basis. Tonight against the Devils will be a good test.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Dec 19, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions

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