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Flyers Desperate for Goalie, Calling Atlanta?


The suburban Philadelphia Delaware County Times ran a story by Anthony J. Sanflippo speculating that the Flyers are trying hard to trade for a goalie with a big injury to the Philadelphia starting goaltender Ray Emery.

An inordinate number of visiting scouts were jammed into the press box Thursday to watch two struggling teams in the Flyers and the Senators. While the 16 men representing 14 different organizations could have been there to look at the Sens or just for a night out, there was enough rumbling to think they might be there scouting the Flyers because they are in need of another goalie with Ray Emery on the shelf for at least six weeks.
...

Apparently, the sharks are circling around the Flyers. According to another organizational source, the Tampa Bay Lightning, ready to hand their starting job to Antero Niittymaki, contacted the Flyers to gauge their interest in goalie Mike Smith.

Apparently the Flyers are "shocked! shocked!" that other teams in the Eastern Conference would try and screw them over! Let's think about this for a moment. There are 15 teams in the East and just 8 playoff spots. The Devils, Caps and Pens are probably all locks to make the post-season. The Canes and Leafs are probably locks to miss. That means there are 10 East teams fighting for 5 playoff berths. Each team has only a 50% chance of getting in. Guess which teams might have a spare goalie? Atlanta, Islanders and Tampa--all playoff contenders. All three of those teams have a strong self interest in watching the Flyers totally fall out of the playoff race (Flyers currently sit at #11 in the conference standings. If the Flyers do fall out that then leaves 9 teams battling for 5 spots. All the other GMs have to do is just sit back and enjoy the show. Why should they bail out the Flyers who spent big on Pronger and went cheap on goalie depth?

Star-divide

One of the teams with two scouts at the game was the Atlanta Thrashers, who have three goalies. Kari Lehtonen hasn’t played yet this season, recovering from two surgeries on his back, but he is expected to start skating soon. That could make veteran Johan Hedberg or youngster Ondrej Pavelec expendable.

One Flyers source said general manager Paul Holmgren has spoken with Atlanta G.M. Don Waddell in the past about Pavelec, but not recently. Pavelec 22, is a second round pick of the Thrashers (2005, No. 41 overall) out of the Czech Republic and has played in 19 games this season with Atlanta, amassing an 8-7-3 record with a 3.03 GAA and a .914 save percentage along with a couple of shutouts.

Now the Thrashers WILL presumably have 3 NHL goaltenders at some point this season. But given Lehtonen's injury history, it would be premature to deal away a net minder and call up MacIntyre or Mannino before the Christmas trade freeze kicks in. Perhaps if the Flyers were to offer a 1st rounder for next year (strong draft) but the Flyers gave up two 1st rounders already in the Pronger deal so they don't that available for a trade.

Whenever Lehtonen does return to full health, I suspect it will be Kari not Pavelec who will be available for a trade. Kari has worn out the organization. They have waited for him to step up and become the star goaltender he was projected to become. He certainly has the talent but the determination is not there often enough. He swings between an elite and very ordinary from one game to the next. Elite goalies are prepared to play 60 games a year and they are outstanding most of those nights.

Furthermore, Lehtonen has not endeared himself to his teammates with his behavior. One example is the irritation he shows when a puck is tipped or screened in front of him. You don't see Hedberg or Pavelec throw little tantrums after a goal--even if it is the fault of the skaters. It is a team game and some nights the offense bails out the defense and vice versa.

Now Lehtonen has NHL All-Star talent, he just hasn't played like one in a Thrashers uniform. Sadly, he will probably play better after a trade--some guys have to be shook up a little to get them them to concentrate on their career and reach their full potential. The problem for the Thrashers is that they are unlikely to get great value for him after all the injuries and inconsistency over the years.

The one trade I could see happening is a move involving Hedberg. He's playing the best hockey of his career and has great numbers. Now if the Flyers were to offer a good young prospect, perhaps it would make sense for Atlanta to do that. But after receiving good goaltending most of the season management will probably be reluctant to mess with success. Also the offer would have to be pretty enticing--why weaken your own team and strength a rival in your conference?

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“All the other GMs have to do is just sit back and enjoy the show. Why should they bail out the Flyers who spent big on Pronger and went cheap on goalie depth?”

exactly!

by ablebody on Dec 12, 2009 12:20 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Lehtonen’s injury has been a real mixed blessing. On one hand, I think the question of “Who do we keep?” has been definitively answered and that answer is Pavelic. On the other hand, Lehtonen’s inability to play is driving down his price in a trade. I have no inside knowledge of his current condition, but if he doesn’t play at all this year that’s going to put the Thrashers in the unenviable position of having to try to arrange a sign and trade deal. I’m guessing that Lehtonen will probably only bring a 2nd round pick and the fans will flip out at that. Perhaps the best deal DW can make is to get some kind of 1st round pick like Esposito who the drafting team has given up on and who has a good chance of being a huge bust, but might turn out to be a useful player with a change of scenery.

I also suspect that Lehtonen may play better on another team, which will make the fans here very upset at how little he’ll probably bring in a trade. The interesting thing will be to see if he continues to get injured or not. If he does, it will take the sting out of his good play for another team.

by Zontar on Dec 12, 2009 11:07 AM EST reply actions  

I think fans will only be upset if we get mediocre goaltending from Pavelec. As long as Pavs plays well, just about any reasonable deal for Kari will be acceptable to the majority of fans.

A second-round pick from a poor team might net us a good player in this next draft.

by timmyf on Dec 12, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t even think the Leafs are out of it yet. They’re only 4 points behind the 8th place Canadiens. It is wide open right now

by 0vermars on Dec 13, 2009 4:58 PM EST reply actions  

Bingo

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Dec 14, 2009 1:29 AM EST up reply actions  

The Thrashers need to look out for the Thrashers this year

Our need for on-ice success eclipses any other consideration IMO. I think moving any goaltender this season, unless it nets us a proven commodity, is a mistake. The more goaltending we have down the stretch and into the play-offs, the better for ourselves. Plus supposedly according to Finnish news outlets, Kari is now carrying the proverbial chip on his shoulder and feels like he has something to prove when he’s able to hit the ice. I’d be curious to see if he can.

But if we are going to trade either Kari or Pavs, it better not be to Philly … or anyone else in the Eastern Conference where that can come back to haunt us in really bad ways. The further away, the better.

by WINGZ_25 on Dec 14, 2009 6:51 AM EST reply actions  

with all due respect

I believe we’ve heard this before from that camp. I tend to believe in the positive out of most everyone but my scale has shifted on Lehtonen. He’s going to have to prove something to me going forward.

by 0vermars on Dec 14, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t have the time to research this or write a long post, but I’m curious: both Hedberg and Pavelec have seen a considerable jump in SV% this year. Is this because BOTH of them have stepped up their game (conventional wisdom) or has the team done a better job limiting high percentage chances? (Perhaps look at defensive zone faceoff win % and a few other metrics?)

The point being: Kari has always had a better save percentage, would he also get a corresponding bump this year?

by timmyf on Dec 14, 2009 10:31 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

timmyf – I took a look not too long ago at the quality of shots against because there was this general “consensus” running around that although the team was still giving up lots of shots against per game, more of the shots were of the “less dangerous” variety. I’m not nearly as good as Falconer I don’t think at gathering data, but basically in comparing the first 20 games from last year to this year (based on Gamecast on ESPN), the Thrashers are giving up significantly MORE shots from the areas right around the net than last season. It’s also where nearly half the goals against are coming from as well.

Whether this is from poor rebound control or the 5 skaters just allowing other teams to walk all over them in the d-zone I can’t definitively say. But I would note that on our recent losing streak we were playing teams that thrive on crashing the net and we paid for it.

by WINGZ_25 on Dec 14, 2009 10:51 AM EST reply actions  

Sure, but at the same time, it seems odd that both Thrashers goaltenders have significantly stepped-up their game this season. I’m not saying they aren’t better than last year… clearly they are. But I have a hard time believing it’s solely due to Moose and Pavs.

by timmyf on Dec 14, 2009 1:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

As a stats guy, I can say that the quality of shots against is as bad as it’s ever been. At even-strength, the Thrashers are giving up shots with an expected shooting percentage of 8.7% versus 7.8% league average. On the penalty kill it’s 14.5% vs 12.7% average. It’s really thanks to the goalies that you guys are doing so well. Better hope it lasts!

by Tom Awad on Dec 15, 2009 12:27 AM EST reply actions  

Interesting numbers but what is the context?

expected shooting percentage? How is this calculated? Region on ice? Actual shooting percentage of those taking the shots? what exactly are you looking at to determine that number?

by 0vermars on Dec 15, 2009 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Just shooter position and manpower situation (5-on-5, 5-on-4, etc). I don’t look at the identity of the shooter. It’s rough but it gives you a good idea of if you’re making life easy for your goalies (Boston, Columbus) or difficult (Atlanta, Carolina).

by Tom Awad on Dec 15, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Link? I’d love to see these numbers. I’m working on a blog precisely about this topic.

by timmyf on Dec 15, 2009 3:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

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