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O Canada! The Thrashers Return to Montreal for Game 11

November 3rd, 2009 - 7:30 PM
Local TV: None - Local Radio: 680 The Fan - Montreal TV: RDS (HD)
Canadiens' SB Nation Affiliate: Habs Eyes On The Prize

Hey everybody, it's time for the Thrashers' 11th game of the season and their 2nd at Centre Bell. Last time these two teams met, the Canadiens defeated the Thrashers 2-1 with a shootout victory. The Thrashers were out-shot 35 to 23, though much of that came in overtime where the Thrash were out-shot 7-to-zip. The game was widely billed as a "goalie duel" between netminders Ondrej Pavelec and Jaroslav Halak

Keep on reading after the jump.

Star-divide

The Thrashers have found some difficulty finding points since the shootout loss in Montreal, going just 1-3 after starting the season 4-1-1, though not for a lack of goal scoring. Even without superstar Ilya Kovalchuk, the Thrashers have been able to score 3 goals or more in 8 of 10 games this season. Their 3.4 goals/game is good for T-5th in the NHL. And their 2.80 goals against/game - 13th in the NHL - isn't all that bad, either.

So how are the Thrashers just one game above 0.500?

Of their 5 losses, 4 have been by a single goal. Playoff teams win close games... or at least get a point. The Thrashers have shown a remarkable ability to get back into games, but they'd be better off not getting behind by 2 or 3 goals.

In fact, that's our first key to tonight's game: Score Early. The Thrashers have won every game in which they've scored first. They've won every game that they've led heading into the 3rd period. They've won every game that they've led after the 1st period. It's a good general rule of hockey: the team that scores first is more likely to win. (22 teams win over 0.500 of the time they score first, 2 sit right at 0.500, and 6 lose most of the games in which they score first.)

The next key? Press Your Advantage on Special Teams. The Thrashers are doing well on special teams this year with a PP% of 27.8 and a PK% of 82.2. A good way to measure overall special teams performance is to add those two numbers together: you want that sum to be over 100. The Thrashers PP/PK combined metric is 110.0, good enough to tie for 3rd in the NHL. Montreal, on the other hand, is having a hard time: 15.1 + 75.8 = 90.1. That's a big difference. A special-teams fest doesn't favor the Thrashers quite as much if you look at the Thrashers' combined road PP/PK numbers vs the Canadiens' combined home PP/PK numbers, the advantage a reduced 114.8 to 97.3.

The last key? Goaltending Goaltending Goaltending. Ondrej Pavelec has been mostly amazing between the pipes for the Thrashers. To pick up two points on the road against Montreal, he'll need to keep it up. After a 50-save performance against the Senators, Pavelec should have his confidence back.

One more thing: after five games, I posted a graph showing the shooting percentages for and against for all 30 NHL teams. Here's the same graph updated to the most recent data available at the time this post was written. (Data includes games through Nov 1, 2009).

Shooting_percentage_nov_1st_medium

Note that the teams are arranged clock-wise by points percentage as well. The Thrashers are still shooting at a much higher percentage than their opponents and better than everybody but the Calgary Flames. They'll need to keep it up if they intend to win games while being out-shot so badly.

I've been somewhat concerned about the team's play lately, but there is one stat that keeps me hopeful: the Thrashers 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio is 1.11, tied for 13th in the NHL. That stat is the best predictor of where teams will end up in the standings at the end of the year. As it is, that has them 7th or 8th in the Eastern Conference. Cross your fingers.

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Comments

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if i go to twains to watch this game on tv with the hockey package, will it only be in french or is this an english channel?

by dennylambert!! on Nov 3, 2009 12:01 PM EST reply actions  

Should be in English

I forgot which game I was watching on RDS (via Center Ice) but last time the game was in English. I assume that’s because the people up there that speak French generally speak English too. Vice versa, not so much.

by antbogey on Nov 3, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions  

No, not this time.

For future reference: go to NHL.com and look under schedule, find the Thrashers game.
*if the game is ONLY being shown on RDS—then you will get the French language version.
*if the game is on CBC or Rogers or something other than RDW—they you get English on CenterIce.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Nov 3, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

The Falconer is quite right. To further illustrate the language situation, recent demographics indicate that about 18.5% of Montrealers speak English as a first language. 70% speak French. The rest speak “something else” (mostly Asian languages). While I would say that probably most Quebecois do speak English and French, Canadian law is written in such a way that people can, if they wish, live their entire lives in Canada speaking only French. Some famous Canadians grew up speaking ONLY French. Mario Lemieux and Celine Dion both speak excellent English now, but both were young adults before they made any serious attempts to learn English.

It’s my understanding that French is a mandatory course in Canadian public schools but English is not. Some students studying French will certainly not take it seriously and be essentially completely at a loss in French, but with no compulsion at all to make French speakers speak English, some will simply choose not to do so.

For the record, I would like to state that I am not in any way anti-French and Les Habs are my favorite team after the Thrashers. I’m just giving you an honest overview of the language situation there. And note too that Montreal is the only city I know of in Quebec where native English speakers have enough numbers to even be noticed. So you get into questions of economics where you have to ask is it really worth supporting a small audience who speaks only English in a place where the pressure to speak only French is enormous.

by Zontar on Nov 3, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

There are plenty of English speaking towns in Quebec. I stayed in when I was there (Magog). Also, Montreal is becoming less and less French, because of immigration. Immigrants choose to learn English over French as their second language, because it’s much more useful in North America and is the lingua franca for most of the world.

by dennylambert!! on Nov 3, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

When I was in Montreal I was pleasantly surprised at how friendly it was to English speakers.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Nov 3, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions  

About the same here. Most people can recognize that you’re non-native, but the greeting “Bonjour hello!” is incredibly common.

by timmyf on Nov 3, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

maybe they show the same thing simultaneously but in different languages like our espn deportes. thanks for the info though.

by dennylambert!! on Nov 3, 2009 12:13 PM EST reply actions  

Awesome chart

I don’t know that I’ve ever seen so much information conveyed so concisely. You can really tell a lot from it. Good God! LOOK AT THE LEAFS! LMAO!

Anyhow, what’s it gonna take to get our Shots Against totals down?

And I’m sorry if this has been covered lately (I have the memory of a goldfish) but is it possible to post a list of the Thrashers’ individual Corsi ratings up to this point? I’d be curious to know who needs to work on their defense.

I know those numbers would be skewed a bit by the more offensive lines so maybe that could be taken out of the equation? I dunno. This is as deep as my analysis gets…

by antbogey on Nov 3, 2009 12:19 PM EST reply actions  

I told you the gray gridlines would help.

by Jarndyce on Nov 3, 2009 12:54 PM EST reply actions  

You were right.

Gray gridlines for teh win.

by timmyf on Nov 3, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions  

…still looks like the South Pole to me :)

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Nov 3, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d like to compare the current outliers to the end of season ST% last year. I know there will be some regression to the mean, but how much?

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Nov 3, 2009 12:59 PM EST reply actions  

I wish the RDS and 680 feeds were closer in sync. I’ve got the RDS video matched with the 680 audio… except about 15-20 seconds off. (The video is ahead of the audio.)

This is going to be an interesting experience.

by timmyf on Nov 3, 2009 7:39 PM EST reply actions  

If you use a desktop computer speakers for the audio you can adjust your buffer to put the radio on delay to match your TV. So I’ve heard.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Nov 4, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions  

or if you have anything like a modern set-top box, you can “pause” live TV ’till the audio from the radio broadcast catches up.

by Kozzy on Nov 4, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Hmm, I’ve never adjusted the buffer before. I’ll have to try that. Although, Kozzy’s idea sounds much easier. :P

by antbogey on Nov 4, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Except if you have Uverse and cannot purchase Center Ice… thus stuck watching live on the interwebs.

by timmyf on Nov 4, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

And you got Uverse because….?

You don’t feel violated enough from your iPhone bill?

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 4, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I love Uverse. Other than not having Center Ice, it’s absolutely amazing. It was a factor in buying my house- I wanted to keep Uverse.

The Center Icething isn’t a huge deal: I really only have time for Thrashers games… and I go to all the home games. There are a dozen or so games every year that I have to watch some other way. I deal.

by timmyf on Nov 4, 2009 10:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

No Center Ice though!!!! And you call yourself a hockey fan ;)

We were debating on Uverse as well, but Center Ice is a must for me. Especially when you have to wait 6 friggin days for a Thrashers game sometimes, you start to go thru hockey withdrawal.

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 5, 2009 12:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Thrashers Score First?

That’s good news. The Thrash have won every game in which they’ve scored first.

by timmyf on Nov 3, 2009 8:10 PM EST reply actions  

Ditto leading at the end of the 1st.

by timmyf on Nov 3, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Scored two ;)

Btw, Peverley at 1.3 mil per year, a friggin steal!

If only he traded Kari for JVR with the season he’s having, (if the rumors are true) DW is really turning his rep around

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 8:18 PM EST reply actions  

THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU DON'T PUT KOZLOV WITH WHITE AND LITTLE

Just saying. Like I have for months.

Now, I still like Peverley with Armstrong and somebody else – Kozlov or Kane – but hey, this Peverley – White – Little line seems to be doing well enough so far.

by timmyf on Nov 3, 2009 8:23 PM EST reply actions  

Can you show me a line Peverley hasn’t been effective on this season?

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 8:26 PM EST up reply actions  

True. The real key is how lines other than Peverley’s play.

by timmyf on Nov 3, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Why? Just rotate him on all 3 lines. He can handle 50 min. of ice time right? :D

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 8:32 PM EST up reply actions  

And look. Montreal plays dirty…

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 8:35 PM EST reply actions  

They’ll call it an equalizer after the Kozlov hit, I’m sure.

by timmyf on Nov 3, 2009 8:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Chicken Little Time

Who comes back to the lineup first – Kovy or Peverley?

by antbogey on Nov 3, 2009 8:39 PM EST reply actions  

He says that because we know Kovy is at least another week or two.

Eliot just said Pevs may be on the bench.

And now on the ice

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I was actually about to write another post asking whether bones heal faster than ligaments :-P

by antbogey on Nov 3, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Keep it up. With the live updates, this is the best chatroom like GDT you can have. Hopefully everyone will join us one day.

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

If the game were in English on Center Ice, I probably wouldn’t be here. I might make it a point to have my laptop next to me from now on.

by antbogey on Nov 3, 2009 8:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Not that I mean I have nothing better to do. Just wouldn’t have thought to be on BWA. lol

by antbogey on Nov 3, 2009 8:53 PM EST up reply actions  

At some point, I’m going to have to start bringing a laptop with me to the games. :-)

(I usually try to comment a bit from my phone, but it’s tough.)

by timmyf on Nov 3, 2009 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

As long as the wifi is working in there. It’s up and down.

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Used to be, I don’t recall getting it to work yet this season. Tim may know better.

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Haven’t bothered. My phone’s 3G works fine.

by timmyf on Nov 3, 2009 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Guess your iphone is better than mine, I barely get reception in the building.

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

First time listening to Kamal

This guy crazy! Wearing his passion on his sleeve is quite the understatement. I love the enthusiasm though. I have a tough time differentiating “Peverley” and “Pavelec”. And I know he’s yelling SAVE but it sounds like scores. I can’t tell if Peverley’s scoring or Pavelec’s saving.

by antbogey on Nov 3, 2009 8:49 PM EST reply actions  

lol, he’s sure being a character tonight. Great announcer though, I always enjoy listening to Kamal.

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Antropov is doing so well at being a playmaker.

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 9:37 PM EST reply actions  

Thats how you answer it!

by EvilMilkshake on Nov 3, 2009 9:49 PM EST reply actions  

Pavelec's rebounds

Pavelec will have to learn how to control those rebounds! It is painful to watch how almost every shot bounces off him. Pretty soon teams will figure this out (if they haven’t already) and will start taking long shots from the point while sending two forwards to crash the net and pick up that “loose change”. It’s going to cost us.

by Kozzy on Nov 4, 2009 10:20 AM EST reply actions  

If they didn't know before,

now they do. Thanks a lot Kozzy. If Pavelec starts getting shelled, I’m tracing your IP.

At which point, I will cautiously pause lest I be prosecuted.

by antbogey on Nov 4, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions  

BUTS

awesome offensive performance, especially from our blue line. keep it going against CBJ!!

by dennylambert!! on Nov 4, 2009 3:52 PM EST reply actions  

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