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Ilya Kovalchuk has a broken foot, out 3-5 weeks

You've seen it from many sources: Ilya Kovalchuk will miss 3-5 weeks with a broken foot. Feel free to discuss on this thread. I'm sure that most of the staff here at BWA will have something to say, but I'll go first.

The Atlanta Thrashers are more than Ilya Kovalchuk plus some other guys. While Kovalchuk is our best player, the face of our franchise, and our captain, this team does not win or lose based on Kovalchuk alone. If you hadn't noticed, our "3rd Line" of Kane - Peverley - Armstrong has been doing pretty well on limited ice time. They'll probably see more ice time in the future, but Evander Kane won't be on it...

Evander Kane is taking his spot as a Top-6 winger pretty early. He'll be joining Maxim Afinogenov and Nik Antropov on one of our top lines. At this point, I have no idea what to call our "1st" and "2nd" (or even "3rd") line. I've updated the line combinations on the site with the assumption that Marty Reasoner will jump to the third line and Jim Slater will center the 4th line. I don't actually think that will be the case: I think there's a good chance we call up somebody to fill the 3rd line LW spot and leave the 4th line alone. (That'd be Spencer Machacek, probably.)

Let's go ahead and continue after the jump...

Star-divide

For now, I've updated the line combinations to reflect the players that are on the Thrashers roster. When (if) we get news of a call-up, we'll know more.

Is this a tough break for the Thrashers? Absolutely. But this could also be an opportunity. If the Thrashers can prove to themselves that they can win games without Kovalchuk, they'll have the confidence they need to rise from a bottom-dweller to a playoff contender. The mindset can't be, "Gosh, it's a good thing Ilya Kovalchuk scores all those goals. We'd be terrible without him!" If this team can win without Kovy, they can win a lot more with him. (That's such an obvious statement, you'd think I were John Madden.)

Thursday's game will be very, very interesting. We'll get a chance to see how Kane responds to playing a full game as our temporary Kovalchuk. I argued at the beginning of the season that Kane thrives on being presented with extremely difficult challenges. It was a part of my argument that he should stick in the NHL for the season. We've seen how well he handled that challenge, but now he's got one far greater.

I, for one, am excited to see what he does with it.

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Jul 2010 by timmyf - 42 comments

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I’m actually fairly bullish on how the team will do without Ilya. I think these guys really work hard for each other and I don’t expect them to just give up. Plus, I’m really interested to see how the D does on the PP unit.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Oct 26, 2009 7:13 PM EDT reply actions  

We obviously have the right D-men for the PP.

For the record, if I were setting the lines, this is what I’d do:

Kane – Antropov – Afinogenov: This line looked GREAT the other night. Let’s roll with it.
Kozlov – Peverley – Armstrong: These guys played VERY well as a group last year. I think they can continue this year.
Machacek/Kozek – White – Little: I know Andrew Kozek is flying under the radar, but I’d be interested to see what he can do with a little time up here. Machacek and Crabb are more likely options for the call up.
Boulton – Reasoner – Thorburn

I’d give those top three lines pretty equal ice time.

by timmyf on Oct 26, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d be surprised if Slater didn’t get a crack at the lineup first.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Oct 26, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that’s what I think will happen, but it’s not necessarily what I’d do if I were Coach+GM.

by timmyf on Oct 26, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I should say, rather, that I’m going back and forth on this.

I think we’ll get a call-up one way or another, but that call-up may not play immediately.

I can’t quite decide. Haven’t had enough time to think on it.

by timmyf on Oct 26, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

See, I have reservations about putting Kane on a top line. I’m afraid of him just plain wearing out.

Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
"www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com":http://www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by aaron b on Oct 26, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

He’ll a trooper. He’ll be fine.

Oh, I think an NHL.com story put him at 190lbs, by the way. So it sounds like his weight-gain is progressing.

by timmyf on Oct 26, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s what they told us at camp, that he’d reached 190.

Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
"www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com":http://www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by aaron b on Oct 26, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Part of this actually has me kind of excited

I mean, it sucks and is terrible that Ilya is out. That goes without saying. However, the idea of Afinogenov and Kane as linemates is really intriguing to me. After seeing them live for the first time the other night, I was absolutely blown away by their speed. Seeing two guys who can move like that playing together should make for some impressive hockey. That said, get well soon Ilya. We miss you already.

Driving the "Fire Willie Martinez" bandwagon since 2006

by SG Standard on Oct 26, 2009 7:37 PM EDT reply actions  

It’s sort of perverse, but I know what you mean.

I think sometimes our team has too much of a Kovalchuk-centric mentality. With him missing a few weeks, this team will have to reconfigure and be successful without him. When he comes back, I think we’ll have better line combos than we do now. Hopefully he can more naturally slide into a spot at that point.

by timmyf on Oct 26, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ironically, this may be the deciding issue for Kovalchuk

If this team tanks with Ilya out of the lineup, he’s gone.

He’s not going to want to (continue to) play for team with no guts, who can’t muster up the sack to play well on their own. Winning teams don’t center around one player and the next few weeks will show if these guys are winners or hangers-on.

by Pogue Mahon on Oct 27, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

I love your guys optimism!

But I think we’re pretty much fucked. Yes, I’m a Negative Nelly and I had a tough day at work.

I’m getting drunk.

by antbogey on Oct 26, 2009 7:47 PM EDT reply actions  

maybe having kovy out will also encourage toby to take some more shots on the pp. it seemed sat. that the team wasnt pulling the trigger fast enough in key situations sat. bogosian was brilliant sat. though. i was also extremely impressed with that kane line. finally, i if i were gm for a day, i would call up machacek (def. over crabb and kozek), scratch him, and play slater. at least give him some good experience with the team and maybe play him later on.

by dennylambert!! on Oct 26, 2009 7:48 PM EDT reply actions  

I believe there’s a reason Toby is on the 1st PP unit over say Bogosian. Enstrom plays defense, and he plays it well. His job on the PP is to move the puck, but also be ready to get back to thwart and opposition short hand attempts. Bogosian will drive the net, and go all over the place, just as he does when the 2nd PP unit is out there. When that unit is out there, Hainsey is the one responsible for getting back.

At this time, Toby is the better defenseman. With Kovalchuk on the other point, he’s actually the best person to be out there as the other point man. Besides Bogosian, the Thrashers other d-men are not quick enough to get back to stop a breakaway.

by EvilMilkshake on Oct 26, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, according to John Anderson, the reason is even simpler than that...

Toby is a left-handed shot, Bogosian right.

Because Toby plays that right point – and because he is a left-handed shot – his stick is toward the center of the ice. If a opposing player on the half-wall moves up to pressure him, he has two options: a back-hand to Kovy on the left point or a pass to Kozlov on the half-wall.

If he were right-handed (or if it were Bogosian), the wall could be taken away. By virtue of the left-handed shot, he can take a step toward center ice and pass around a skater pressing from the half-wall.

This is the opposite of what you’d expect: that you want a guy who keeps his stick to the boards to keep pucks in. In fact, usually a stick is a poor way to try to control a quick-moving puck flying toward the point. It’s perhaps easier to just use your skate and get your body against the wall (if the puck is bouncing.)

So there you go, that’s why Toby plays on PP1 and Bogosian does not.

by timmyf on Oct 26, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

i never said toby doesnt belong on the 1st pp. hes been amazing for us these past 3 yrs. i just think he needs to have some more confidence in his shot, because when he does let one rip, its usually very accurate and on goal.

by dennylambert!! on Oct 26, 2009 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well then I stand corrected. Although I still think that has something to do with it. And without a link to his quote ;) how is anyone going to verify?

by EvilMilkshake on Oct 26, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Falconer and I talked to him at Face/Off.

No, wait, that’s the John Travolta as Nic Cage/Nic Cage as John Travolta movie…

Falconer and I talked to him at Face-off.

by timmyf on Oct 26, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

gunplay & doves FTW.

Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
"www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com":http://www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by aaron b on Oct 26, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

So I’m supposed to take your guys words for it eh?

by EvilMilkshake on Oct 26, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Isn’t Tim Stapleton a LW? I’d like to see him get a shot. We already know what Slater can’t do. Yes, I meant to say “can’t”. I’m not very enthused about Machacek getting a chance, but I’d rather see him play than Slater.

In sports you have to be able to survive an injury to your best player. It happens. A team that collapses over one injury isn’t much of a team.

by Zontar on Oct 26, 2009 8:57 PM EDT reply actions  

My wife said the same thing and I almost cried

because I knew she was right. But we know how bad the Thrashers can be even with Kovy in the lineup. I think that’s why I’m Chicken Little-ing right now.

by antbogey on Oct 26, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

If getting our next win weren’t mission-critical, I would say the same thing. I’d really like to see what he can do when given a full look.

Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
"www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com":http://www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by aaron b on Oct 26, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wasn’t particularly impressed with Stapleton this preseason. I suppose he’s a possibility for the call-up.

by timmyf on Oct 26, 2009 8:59 PM EDT reply actions  

This is bad, however, I still think we can make the playoffs.

The question here is this: Who is gonna step up?

Will it be Nik Antropov? He seems like a possible candidate.

Bryan Little? Last year’s under-the-radar goal-scoring success story.

Rich Peverley? The clubhouse favorite right now, I’d assume.

Evander Kane? Boy, if he’s the one that steps up, we’ve got ourselves a hockey player.

It makes it even more crucial that our goalie situation gets figured out shortly, IMO. Without Kovy, our scoring takes a huge hit.

Hopefully in his downtime he decides that he really DOES want to stay here, and we get this $100 million contract done.

I think if we do average-above-average while he’s out, he’ll be back, as he’ll see that the team has a good direction even without him. Maybe this is what he’s looking for?

by chipperboy1 on Oct 26, 2009 9:51 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Antropov and Little have to step it up. Neither of them have goals so far. Rich Peverley probably won’t score at a pace above a goal/2 games (he’s 5 in 8 right now), but if he can maintain that for awhile, it’d be huge.

I actually think that Kane and our defensemen will provide most of those “extra” goals, but you can very well expect that our Goals Forced/game will go down.

We’re going to have to learn to win on 2 and 3 goals/night, not 3 or 4.

by timmyf on Oct 26, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

or our shots on goal may rise as a result – less selectivity, more throw it on net and bang it home.

Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
"www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com":http://www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by aaron b on Oct 26, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think the bigger one here is Little (yes, intended oxy). Antropov was brought in to be a center. Before JA made that clear, most fans had him at wing, however, he’s done well at center IMO. He’s new to the system, so the slower start is expected, but he’s made some beautiful passes thus far, and if he keeps that up, the goals should be there no matter if it’s Little or Kovy on the wing.

by EvilMilkshake on Oct 26, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Secondary scoring

I think we’ll do fine without Kovy for a few weeks. Last season the Thrashers had the most secondary scoring in franchise history, and this season looks like it might continue.

I’ll be interested to see how attendance does without Kovy. We have had a small surge in attendance so far this season and I hope that it can continue.

by ThrashersRecaps on Oct 27, 2009 9:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Rumor has it that Krog is getting the call-up

by Pfloyd75 on Oct 27, 2009 10:47 AM EDT reply actions  

It’s official. Post on that going up in a minute.

by timmyf on Oct 27, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Might as well let Slater play as do that. The reason I suggested Stapleton is that he has 1 goal in 4 career NHL games. That’s not enough evidence to conclude that whether he can or cannot play effectively in the NHL. He’s shown some scoring touch in the AHL and Finland and he might be able to score in the NHL. Krog is a known quantity and he’s not going to score in the NHL.

by Zontar on Oct 27, 2009 10:57 AM EDT reply actions  

The only thing that makes me think Krog might be worth another look is his success in Anderson’s system. But we can move that discussion to the just-posted Krog story. See the front page.

by timmyf on Oct 27, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree, play Stapleton. Stapleton is only 27 while Krog is 34, we need to find out of Stapleton is capable of playing in the NHL while he is still young.

by ThrashersRecaps on Oct 27, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

agreed totally. and isn’t he on a 1 year deal? what are we waiting for, to lock up a playoff spot? get the kid up here to see if he’s worth dressing.

Being a Thrashers fan - it's kind of like being punk rock in a hick town.
"www.BirdwatchersAnonymous.com":http://www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by aaron b on Oct 27, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

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