Should The Thrashers Be Buyers or Sellers at Trade Deadline?
by The Falconer on Feb 9, 2010 7:32 AM EST
in Analysis
14 comments
I have been a reader of Tyler Dellow's site Mudcrutch79hockey for years now. We share a common interest in bring some statistical analysis to our favorite sport NHL hockey. After the Kovalchuk trade Tyler wrote this piece arguing that in the short run (the current season) trading away Ilya Kovalchuk was a very costly move because it greatly harms the Thrashers chances of making the playoffs. Missing the playoffs costs the organization additional revenue and positive marketing buzz that come with the post-season.
In particular, Tyler references a concept called "marginal points", an argument I first encountered on the site www.baseballprospectus.com. Simply put, the concept goes like this--not all wins are worth the same to a franchise. If it takes 88 points to quality for the post-season (and gain at least two post-season home games worth $2+ million more in revenue) then the last win that pushes a team up from 86 to 88 points is worth far more than a win that takes a team from 84 points to 86 points. It is worth paying something to gain those last two points.
Now if you're the Atlanta Thrashers management you face an incredibly important question--how many points will your current roster of players win? The answer to that question is enormously important for the franchise. If the Thrashers, without Kovalchuk, are just an 84 point team, then the Thrashers should conduct a fire sale and trade away pending UFAs like Afinogenov, Armstrong, Schubert for picks and prospects that will help the franchise contend for a playoff berth next spring or in the future. Keeping those assets and coming up short of the playoffs would be a big mistake. For example, I thought the team should have dealt Bobby Holik back in the spring of 2008 but they kept him on.
On the other hand, if the Atlanta Thrashers, without Ilya Kovalchuk, are really a 86 point team and the playoffs require just 87-88 points, then the team should think long and hard about dealing some picks, players or prospects to add a scorer like Alexei Ponikarovsky or Ray Whitney.
This is one reason why the next three games before the Olympic Break are simply enormous. The Thrashers looked pretty good in the post-Kovalchuk loss to Washington and win against Florida. How they fare against some quality teams out West will be a good measuring stick for what this roster can do.
Waddell has mentioned the favorable home schedule in March--which is nice--but games don't win themselves. Almost every team they face will be desperate and nobody is going to roll over and give away 2 points just because they're in Philips Arena. The favorable home schedule only matters if the TEAM is competitive without Kovalchuk.
It is very tough to make an assessment of the Thrashers future based on 5 post-Kovalchuk games. Life is not fair and that is exactly the task before Waddell, Dudley and Anderson. The Trade Deadline is March 2nd and Atlanta needs to know if they are buyers or sellers when trade talks are fast and furious after the Olympics.
After last night's games, Club Sport Stats put the Thrashers playoff odds at 36%. Right now it looks like 87 points is the Threshold to qualify for the post-season. This is an unusually low target number in the post-lockout NHL, but the East is so competitive this season and the teams have not really spread out as they usually do by this time of the year.
To get a sense of just how precarious things things are look at the table below. Club Sports Stats projects that 6th place will require 91 points and the Thrashers would need to go 16-8-1 to hit that number so their odds of doing so are just 9%. On the other hand, 8th place will likely require 87 points and a Thrasher record of 14-10-1 the rest of the way and the odds are slightly better than 1 in 3 that Atlanta could do that.
| East Rank | Odds | Win | Losses | OTL | Point Projection | Odds |
| 6th | 7% | 16 | 8 | 1 | 91 | 9% |
| 7th | 12% | 15 | 9 | 1 | 89 | 21% |
| 8th | 15% | 14 | 10 | 1 | 87 | 36% |
| 9th | 17% | 14 | 11 | 0 | 86 | 53% |
| 10th | 15% | 13 | 11 | 1 | 85 | 68% |
| 11th | 12% | 13 | 12 | 0 | 84 | 80% |
And now we see how this short three Western Conference road trip becomes so CRITICAL for the Thrashers. If they were to get zero points in those three contests, that would require the team to run off an insane run of 14-7-1 record after the Olympics. If the Thrashers get just 2 points, then they would need a daunting 13-8-1 run which is slighty better. If the Thrashers were to manage to scrap up 4 out of 6 possible points that gives them a much better shot post-Olympics of pulling off a 12-9-1 record need to make the playoffs.
Conclusion: The Thrashers organization will have to make some big decisions about whether to buy or sell at the deadline. The final three games before the break could make one of these options much more likely depending upon how the team performs.
14 comments | 0 recs |
Thrashers Recall Kari Lehtonen
The Thrashers today recalled Kari Lehtonen from his conditioning assignment with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL. Nothing to get terribly excited about - it just means Kari's two weeks in Chi-Town are up. It will, however, be very interesting to see how the team handles three goalies.
1 day ago
aaron b
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Thrashers Travel Travails, Team Townhall,Triumph Over FLA
by The Falconer on Feb 7, 2010 2:00 AM EST
in News
51 comments
I can only think of one word to encapsulate Thrasher-world on Saturday Feb 6th and that word is "unexpected".
I expected a Thrashers Townhall full of Season Ticket Holders in full revolt. I expected someone might stand up and rip up their tickets and throw them down in disgust. I expected to hear calls for the GM to be fired and new ownership. I expected someone to yell "show him the money!"
Instead I witnessed a spirited and rather honest-back-and-forth between fans, GM and ownership. I heard a surprisingly candid and mature discussion about the state of the team from both fans and management. From the fans, I heard anger and frustration, but also a recognition that their is more than one way to build a hockey team. From management, I heard both the GM and owner take their lumps and admit that "we've made mistakes" but also pledge that "we're here to win hockey games and we're committed to accomplishing that goal." There was a lot less salesmanship and a lot more plain speaking than I expected. [More details on the Townhall coming up below.]
That meeting was followed by an unexpected hockey game. The Thrashers team had lost the night before to the Washington Capitals. Historically, NHL teams struggle in the 2nd of back to back games. In the Thrashers case, their difficulty was exacerbated by the historic snowfall in Washington which caused them to consume 10 hours traveling home to Atlanta. The start of the game against Florida had to be pushed back almost an hour. Given those conditions, I would not have been surprised to see a tired team bereft of their star player produce a stinker effort.
Instead, the team came out with great passion and energy and out-shot and out-worked the opponent. Ron Hainsey fought, Tobias Enstrom and Pavel Kubina pinched in like the ghost of Bobby Orr. Zach Bogosian and Evander Kane were rowdy, and new Thrasher Nicklas Bergfors supplied a beautiful game winner. The players moved around on the power play, and the passing was crisp. Reasoner and Oduya were outstanding on the PK, and Hedberg was up to the task in goal. They played like a like a team. If every hockey game was this exciting, the tickets would sell themselves. It was easily one of the most entertaining games of the season. With the late start, the crowd was all there from the National Anthem and they were prepared to make some noise. The team fed off the nearly full building. It was both startling and exciting at the same time. It was very unexpected.
Now the Thrashers get a couple days off to practice with their two new guys before the face a critical 3 game road trip before the Olympic Break. If they lose all three, their playoffs aspirations are on life support--it is so hard to make up points in March with all of the three point games and falling behind by 6-7 points could be fatal. However, if they get only one win, they're in trouble, but it could still work out favorably. Two wins and they will have set themselves up for the NHL version of March Madness where they battle for one of those last three playoff berths. These next three games in February are incredibly important contests.
Thrashers Townhall Meeting Recap
[As usual I took detailed notes, but unless I use quotes, it is a paraphrase of what was said.]
The fans packed the Hawks Practice court and almost every seat was taken. Season ticket reps lined one wall. On the other wall were senior management of the team and building. When Don Waddell walked in he was accompanied by two owners (Bruce Levenson and Ed Peskowitz) and the CEO of Philips Arena. There was definitely tension in the air.
Waddell began by talking about the arduous travel from DC. They departed via bus at 9 a.m. to Richmond, VA. Grazed a truck on the icy roads where they lost a mirror, reached their plane by 2pm, but had to wait 2 more hours to be de-iced and for weather clearance. The takeoff was a real "white knuckler" and they didn't reach Philips Arena until almost 6pm.
51 comments | 2 recs |
Thrashers Put Out the Cats, Look Like A Hockey Team
by aaron b on Feb 7, 2010 12:12 AM EST
5 comments
This was it: the game the Thrashers needed. It's proof that, given the opportunity, they will play for themselves, and they will play for each other. Ron Hainsey and Zach Bogosian dropped the gloves. Johan Hedberg was fantastic. Colby Armstrong was... Colby Armstrong. And Niclas Bergfors, the new kid, shows us what he's capable of:
5 comments | 0 recs |
We Must Be an Old Lady, There's 20 Cats in our House - Panthers at Thrashers
by aaron b on Feb 6, 2010 1:20 PM EST
39 comments
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| v. | ||||
| Atlanta Thrashers | Florida Panthers |
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| Philips Arena | ||||
| 7:00PM | ||||
| TV: (none) Radio: 680 the FAN | ||||
| SBNation: Game page, Litter Box Cats | ||||
| Johan Hedberg |
Tomas Vokoun |
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| (12-9-4, .916% 2.54) | (19-18-9, .932 2.33) | |||
T-Day +2.
Jump for game notes.
39 comments | 0 recs
Game Day: Thrashers at Capitals
by timmyf on Feb 5, 2010 5:19 PM EST
10 comments
Tonight's another meeting of two Russian superstars. Tonight your new-look Atlanta Thrashers travel to Washington DC to take on the Capitals. Without Ilya Kovalchuk. I have absolutely no idea what to think.
Guys, writing a game preview at this point is a futile exercise. I don't know what the line combos will be. We know that Niclas Bergfors and Johnny Oduya will play. They will wear their old numbers (18 and 29, respectively.) Outside of that, I simply don't know what to say.
I'm creating this topic so we have a place to discuss the game. I probably won't be watching live (I usually let it run for about 30 minutes on DVR so I can fast-forward through the commercials... sorry, sponsors...) so you'll hear from me after the game. And, I assume, the rest of the BWA writers.
Game's at 7. Go Thrashers!
10 comments | 0 recs
Kovalchuk Trade: More Day After Analysis
by The Falconer on Feb 5, 2010 12:12 PM EST
in Analysis
81 comments
Last night I published my immediate reaction to the Kovalchuk trade. Twelve hours later everyone (including myself) has had a bit more time to digest this deal. Chris Vivlamore has also published a full transcript from his talk with Don Waddell that provides more detail on the perspective of Thrashers management team. I'll quote from this interview below as I consider some key questions.
Did the Thrashers get good value?
Jon Fischer of In Lou We Trust had this reaction:
Basically, the Devils just traded a talented defenseman who has been underperforming after signing his big contract with the team in the past summer (Oduya), a rookie forward who has hit the wall in the worst way and hasn't been able to get back on track in over a month (Bergfors), a prospect center who's been suspended for elbowing a player in the face and had upside of a two-way center to begin with (Cormier), and a first round pick that will be late anyway. All this for one of the best pure snipers in hockey. Lou Lamoriello rules.
Pierre Lebrun of ESPN had this reaction:
As for Atlanta, I doubt Waddell could have done better under the circumstances. Kovalchuk was going to walk as an unrestricted free agent on July 1; the Thrashers had to not only get something in return for their most important asset but also do it while not pulling the plug on their chase for a playoff spot. That's a balancing act, and acquiring a top-four blueliner in Johnny Oduya and a decent second-line winger in Niclas Bergfors to help the team right now was paramount.
So which is it?
Did the Thrashers receive talent that is of equal value to Ilya Kovalchuk in his prime? Absolutely not. Was any team offering them talent equal to Kovalchuk in his prime? Absolutely not. To get full value the Thashers needed to make this trade in the summer of 2009 or even the summer of 2008.
Did Don Waddell take the best offer? Who knows. Unless we learn what the other finalists were peddling we simply have no way of knowing. Certainly DW took the offer he liked the best. For myself, I really wish Atlanta had received a 1st line scoring forward or prospect in return, instead the best piece here is the defenseman Oduya--a position of some depth for the organization. If the Devils advance to the Eastern Finals the draft pick will be in the bottom four of the 1st round. The Thrashers record with late 1st round picks (Jim Slater, Alex Bourett, Daulton Leveille) is very discouraging.
On the other hand, if you're cynical, you might say that since the Thrashers defense is locked into place for the next several seasons all they have to do is find offense--and any rookie hockey fan can read the G-A-PTS to identify the scorers--so hard can it be to fill in the offensive holes, right?
What is lost?
There are some big losses with this trade:
- The team can no longer market an appealing star player to fans.
- The team will take another blow to fan enthusiasm.
- Season ticket base will probably get even smaller this summer.
- The team will miss out of the rest of Ilya Kovalchuk's offensive production.
- The Atlanta Thrashers franchise is once again branded with a giant "loser" label among fans here and in other cities.
- The Thrashers will likely have to pay the "loser's premium" to get top UFA to sign here.
What has been gained?
The losses entailed in the Kovalchuk trade are easy to recognize and list off. In contrast, I think what has been gained might be less obvious to most fans.
81 comments | 0 recs |
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The Falconer
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
59 | 41 | 12 | 6 | 88 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
57 | 25 | 21 | 11 | 61 |
|
Atlanta
|
57 | 25 | 24 | 8 | 58 |
|
Florida
|
58 | 24 | 25 | 9 | 57 |
|
Carolina
|
58 | 21 | 30 | 7 | 49 |
(updated 2.9.2010 at 9:00 AM EST)
Thrashers Schedule
Next 5 Games
|
@
Colorado
|
Wed 02/10 | 9:00 PM EST |
|
@
Minnesota
|
Fri 02/12 | 8:00 PM EST |
|
@
Chicago
|
Sat 02/13 | 8:30 PM EST |
|
Florida
|
Tue 03/02 | 7:00 PM EST |
|
New York Islanders
|
Thu 03/04 | 7:00 PM EST |
Last 5 Games
|
Florida
|
Sat 02/06 | W 4 - 2 |
|
@
Washington
|
Fri 02/05 | L 2 - 5 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
Tue 02/02 | L 1 - 2 |
|
@
Nashville
|
Sat 01/30 | L 3 - 4 |
|
@
Philadelphia
|
Thu 01/28 | W 4 - 3 |
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